timwest
Long

Barrick Gold Corp ABX Daily - Oversold and dirt cheap

NYSE:ABX   BARRICK GOLD CORP
455 19 10
ABX             dual-entry system:

It is plain cheap with $1.81 in trailing earnings against a $16.45 stock price, which is 11% earnings yield.

The stock is oversold and very cheap compared to "the market". See text in the chart.

Using the 21-day CCI ( Commodity Channel Index ), it is safer to wait for this to rise to -100 to enter, as noted on the chart on the previous 7 instances.

Tim 2:12PM EST May 19, 2014 Now ABX             is up to $16.52 last
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Would you please clarify, what do you mean -100? If a buy order at 1600, with SL at 1500 is too risky?
+1 Reply
timwest PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
HamedAghajani, If you'd like to wait for a dip to 16.00, you are certainly welcome. Risking a drop to 15.00 is a fine amount of risk for the trade as well. The 11-day ATR is 0.33. Therefore, 3 x the 0.33 gives you a stop of $0.99 down from your entry price. I'd suggest half entry here and half entry when CCI rises to -100 on the 21-day calculation. All the best, Tim
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HamedAghajani PRO timwest
2 years ago
Thanks, for the clear explanation.
+1 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO timwest
2 years ago
I have done a little bit of pattern analysis, which I am currently learning,
snapshot
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HamedAghajani PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
So I think, the Stops should go below 15.24, and the price should reverse between $16.20 to $15.60.
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timwest PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
I am still not familiar with those formations you are highlighting. I don't follow the logic nor have I seen the success rate of them. What do you find attractive with these types of patterns? A defined stop loss? A huge price target? What are the probabilities of a profitable trade and what is the risk/reward ratio of them? Just wondering. Thanks. Tim
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HamedAghajani PRO timwest
2 years ago
The success rate of these patterns are between 65 to 75 percent if continuously traded on one market, one time frame. They define the Price Reversal Zone, Stop possess and Target profits. On daily time frame, you could find reward/risk ratio from 1.5 to 4. The trade is managed in 2-3 steps. I use the methods, thought by Scot Carney.
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HamedAghajani PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
My order got triggered at $15:99, and heading aggressively down. lets hopeful for the future.
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2use timwest
2 years ago
Thought the same and will take a small position ona cci rise.
+1 Reply
timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
CCI lifting to -162 so far
snapshot
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2use timwest
2 years ago
CCI Almost kissed 100, but did not and went down again - what a headfake, still monitoring for the trend, it touched 200 too many times now.

Regarding your note on earnings in the left corner - is it me, or earnings are smaller and smaller each quarter, soon they will be in minus if following the trend
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gatorNic
2 years ago
@Hamed - no he means the current CCI is at -221. So for less risk on the trade wait for a recovery to -100 on the CCI
+2 Reply
timwest PRO gatorNic
2 years ago
Exactly gantorNic - thanks for explaining
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HamedAghajani PRO timwest
2 years ago
Have you covered your profit here? or you are still in this trade?
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gatorNic HamedAghajani
2 years ago
So far so good, I ended up picking some up after it crossed the -100 CCI. I banked some at 5%, as I always do and so far letting the rest run. I would be interested too on Tim's thoughts on where it goes from here? Currently daily CCI is well into overbought at 210
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HamedAghajani PRO gatorNic
2 years ago
Thanks.
I entered at 15.99 and moved my SL to 17.45, ready to re-enter the market if i get stopped out, if there is any upside momentum. Would be great if Tim share his thoughts on this one.
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2use HamedAghajani
2 years ago
So far it is according to plan. CCI needs to turn down a bit, price down a bit as well, then it may get higher on a shorter move from CCI. See a similar trend from 2014-01-07
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timwest PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
The gold stocks, silver and gold have had a very nice run up. I am taking some money off the table, Thursday and Friday, and will be watching closely after this strong ramp-up for taking more off the table. Thanks for the question. I'll post a chart with levels, etc.
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HamedAghajani PRO gatorNic
2 years ago
Thanks GatorNic,
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