As Chris describes in the link above, this strategy works best when deployed with the prevailing trend. I used a stock screener to find a bullish sector with an instrument that met the rules for the trade.
Looking at the chart, we see an instrument with a bullish trend but has recently fell out of favor with the most recent earnings release meeting the 2 rsi strategy well on a daily time frame. Price is above the 200SMA, below 5SMA and 2RSI is oversold.
Then , I used the next chart to drill down to find my entry point. This chart has a nice double bottom at support with Jeddigen Divergence indicator flagging a buy signal at this level.
Thank you for the question and the opportunity to share my thoughts.
Profitable trades, Littleriver
***At the bottom of the page is a link where you can download the PDF of the Backtesting Results.
The RSI-2 Strategy is designed to use on Daily Bars, however it is a short term trading strategy. The average length of time in a trade is just over 2 days. But the results CRUSH the general market averages.
A 2 Period RSI with the upper line at 90 and the lower line at 10 looking for Extremes.
A 200 period Simple Moving Average, and a 5 period SMA.
Buy Only When Stock is Above 200-SMA, AND Below 5-Day SMA, With RSI Below 10
Short Only when Stock is Below 200-SMA, AND Above 5-Day SMA, With RSI Above 90
If Buying EXIT when Price goes Above 5 SMA.
If Selling Exit when Price Goes Below 5 SMA.
***The thought process is that the security has “Pulled Back” from it’s Major Trend - And will Continue The Major Trend By Crossing the 5 SMA in the direction of the Major Tend.
Conservative - Once Criteria = True THEN Buy at Market on the Next Days Open
Aggressive - Once Criteria = True THEN Buy Near Current Days Close.
The Aggressive Entry would create more Profits However I used the Conservative Entry in my back test.
Rules Used in Backtest:
If Entry Condition True Then Enter Next Day At Market Open.
If Exit Condition True the Exit That Day At Market On Close IF Close is Above the 5 SMA in Up Trend, or Below the 5 SMA in Down Trend.
Dates used for back test…
***For Forex I just tested the last 5 years on The Major 12 Pairs (Page 1), and the last page I tested All forex Pairs (80) from 11/27/2007 to 6/09/2014.
***Starting on Page 4 (PDF Link Below) I Tested S&P 100 in Bull Markets, Bear Markets, and Bull and Bear Markets Combined…I ran the test on the Nasdaq 100 at the end.
***All The Markets I tested Showed Almost Exact Win Percentages…The RSI-2 System Seems to Be VALID…However, in Bull Markets “Buy” Trades significantly out performed “Short” Trades, The opposite for Bear Markets….So Filtering the Direction of Trades You Take Would Significantly Increase The Results.
For S&P 100:
First Period tested was from 11/27/07 through 06/09/2014…which covered a major Down Trend and a Major Up Trend.
Second Period tested was 11/27/07 to 3/13/09 … The beginning of the Major Sell Off in the Market to the Dead Low to test an Extreme Downtrend.
Third Period Tested was from 3/14/09 to 06/09/2014 … To Test a Major Uptrend.
***Results are based on Buying 100 Shares of Stock. Only 1 Entry…No Scaling In. Closing 100% of Trade on Exit Criteria.
***Forex Results are based on buying 1 Standard Lot***Note The Forex results aren’t showing a Dollar Amount…It Shows TOTAL PIPS. So multiply the Pips times your Trade Size.
S&P 100: Bull and Bear Markets Combined - 11/27/07 through 06/09/2014
Winning Percent - 65%
***Check Out The Equity Curve!!!
S&P 100: Bear Markets - 11/27/07 to 3/13/09
Overall Winning Percent - 66%
"Buy” Winning Percent - 67% but only made $151,127
“Short” Winning Percent - 65.6% but made $1,054,487 … Significantly More Money Made Going With Trend.
S&P 100: Bull Markets - 3/14/09 to 06/09/2014
Overall Winning Percent - 64.9%
"Buy” Winning Percent - 69.6% but made $2,665,689 … Significantly More Money Made Going With Trend.
“Short” Winning Percent - 54% Lost $130,840 … Going Against Trend.
Nasdaq 100: Bull and Bear Markets - 11/27/07 through 06/09/2014
Overall Winning Percent - 63%
Forex All Symbols (80): Bull and Bear Markets 11/27/2007 - 6-09-2014
Overall Winning Percent - 58.4% … + 32,552 Pips
Forex Major 12 Pairs: Last 5 Years
Overall Winning Percent - 59.6% … +9,196 Pips
Code for Upper Indicators. Highlight Bars and 5 SMA and 200 SMA.
Code for RSI Strategy - Lower RSI Indicator
Video On Importing Custom Indicators from PasteBin:
DropBox Link For PDF of Detailed Trade Results
RafaelOsechas ChrisMoody Dec 31, 2014
i backtesting whit tdameritrade strategy desk but chngin SMA > 5 i have better results can you explain why?
baerrus PRO ChrisMoody Jan 26, 2015
What are the rules to exit failed trades?
ChrisMoody PRO baerrus Jan 27, 2015
Connors never could find a STOP that made the system perform better. Therefore there isn't one in this system. the 5 SMA is so close to price you always get a price movement that gets you out of the trade...Even if you get a big gap that moves against you the 5 period avg will quickly catch up and exit you out of the trade.
Although if you read near the bottom of this thread..someone mentioned a revised system that was getting better results with a stop and a different moving avg. I will code that system sometime soon and report results under that thread.