ADA/BTC (Cardano) 05/03/18, 1:10 p.m. EST, by Michael Mansfield for CyptoPlayhouse
Hi trader friends! I see that the Cardano (ADA) token is topping in a Wave (V) of a larger Wave 3, in Elliott Wave terms. Since we also see 5 waves up on the 4-hour chart since the April 25th low, the current Wave 3 top should be in! If not today, the remotely possibly tomorrow.
Since ADABTC wave top is likely in place, Cardano should now begin a Wave 4 pullback lasting 5-12 days. This will likely be followed by a Wave 5 up to around 0.000050 area to finish this entire 1-5 bullish wave sequence from the March 18th low of 0.00001666, which happened to be a bullish Hammer candle formation. Not a bad move, Cardano!
After this entire larger 1-5 Elliott Wave up pattern is completed, we would likely see a larger degree ABC correction to this upcoming Wave 4 retracement area once again. Then, repeat 1-5 Waves up on a larger degree, IF this analysis is correct. This is a relatively high confidence forecast.
IDEAS: You might look to short for 3-5 price bars down, then wait for the low to be confirmed on whatever time-frame you trade with hopefully a clean buy setup reversal bar up to reverse to long buy position around the suggested Wave 4 low target area shown on the chart.
RATIONALE:
Waning momentum on TSI and MASIC.
*Bearish divergence & MASIC turned down!
*Five waves up on this topping Wave (V) of larger Wave 3, likely at or near the Mansfield modified Andrews 0.618 line.
*Volume accelerated on Wave (iii) of 3, as it should, with Wave (v) of 3 showing less volume, as would be expected, which provides excellent conditions for text book Wave 4 pullback/retracement.
*Bearish reversal candlestick price bar is forming.
*GANN FAN line is also providing resistance in this area
--------------- The forthcoming retracement should find its way to the prior Wave (iv) area, which, is where the Wolf Wave support line is.
TRADER TIP: A bullish Wolf Wave support price target line is drawn from the Wave (i) high to the Wave (iv) low (opposite for a bearish Wolf Wave resistance price target line). In either case, these are supposedly minimum price expectations. Test this out for yourself. Use prudently along with other supporting/confirming techniques.
CYCLES: As with a lot of the newer tokens, there is not much data from which to extract cycles from. These two cycles are the best current estimate, but not to trade off of yet.
DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Michael Mansfield CIO
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The top black on green text box was automatically resized so that it is too small now, when I published this. In case you cannot read it, it says:
"Wave 3 topping at Mansfield Modified Andrews pitchfork .618 line, W-4 pullback (now), then Wave 5 high. Then, (we should see a larger degree) ABC down (move), repeat 1-5 up."
I added comments in ( ) for clarity.
Thank you! MM
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Also, the ABC correction mapped out for the future (far right) is NOT to scale since I would have had to zoom out more, but I wanted the main analysis idea to be easier to see. MM
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Cardano is dropping as expected! Good luck to traders who exited or got short. Remember, this down move is against the trend and will likely be short lived. If you missed it, it is too late to short on a daily chart now. Wait for the buy opportunity within 4-11 days now. I'll let you know. MM
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ADABTC (Cardano) now in buy set up. See latest Cardano post.
Great job on this TA, what do you reckon is the move ?
cryptoplayhouse
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NOTE: I should have mentioned that after this expected pullback and subsequent Wave 5 top, the next larger degree ABC correction, also expected and drawn on the chart, is NOT drawn to scale since I wanted to fit the main chart analysis on the chart in a way that shows the past wave movements up then down, then up again, so most people to see them clearly. If I zoom out more, the main analysis would be too hard to read on smartphone. Thank you for your likes and comments. We read and comment on them all.
dacaldelas2
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@cryptoplayhouse, Seems like the 4th wave is alreadly done or not yet?
It really helped me your chart,
Thanks
cryptoplayhouse
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@dacaldelas2, we are suspiciously long now, even though the down move may have made the low, the correction could possibly still be ongoing as in more complex corrections. Why, because corrections tend to alternate in structure within the same degree and from smaller to larger degree of the same wave. So if Wave 2 is a simple ABC 3 leg 62% retracement\, then Wave 4 might be a flat rectangle or a triangle and more shallow, say 38-50% retracement, not 62%, etc. Thanks for your kind words and comments. I'll check our your page. Let's talk again soon!