For ADA, one ABC correction wasn't enough and is now in a WXY count, which is just two conjoined ABC waves. We are getting very close to the bottom of Wave A. Signs are pointing to 1950 sats as the point for a massive bounce, but don't think it'll last forever, as it's just the B wave. There will be 5 more waves down once the top of wave B is reached so don't get caught holding the bags!
how you can know already this is a subwave of a WXY correction?
TBooch
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@Wolverinos, Because I counted the waves inside the first ABC correction and I got 5-3-5. Considering how weak the reaction was after the first ABC correction and how sharp the correction has been after, what else could it be? I only count 5 waves down so far, which means we should be expecting a wave B and a wave C.
Wolverinos
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@TBooch, maybe, but the regression we're in is out of proportion because of BTC, and there is no logic in follow up at this time...this could be the end of a normal ABC correction or a the end of an A wave.. anything is possible.
TBooch
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@Wolverinos, No, it really can't be the end of an ABC. It doesn't play like one at all. And while it's technically possible to be a very large wave A with an extended 5th wave, it seems highly unlikely. In either case though, that would still be a set up for a reversal. I get your point that this market has been bearish since mid January, but that doesn't invalidate the chart analysis that is telling me ADA is ready for a reversal. I checked a bunch of different fibonacci extensions and there is confluence at 1950sats so my main buy order is around there. Of course I'm being cautious in this bear market, that's why I'm laddering in my buys between 2125 - 1900 sats and setting a stop-loss. If I get stopped out at 1800 sats, it'll average out to a 10% loss, which I'm willing to risk for the potential reward. If I see an oversold RSI and the end of a 5 wave structure, I'm buying. I mean no offense, but it sounds like you're trading with emotion and right now it sounds like you're scared, which is usually a good time to buy.
CryptoXpertCX
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@TBooch, 1800 stopped out. where next? Been holding since 2500. Fuming.
TBooch
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@CryptoXpertUK, There's a pretty bullish hammer forming on the daily right now so you might be out of the woods! However, if it doesn't cross 2500 sats in the next 24-48 hours, I think something like this is going to happen instead:
Good Luck!
TBooch
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@TBooch, This is the alternative count, which I don't like because the 3rd subwave would be the shortest:
TBooch
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@CryptoXpertUK, Whoops replied to myself! This is the alternative count, which I don't like because the 3rd subwave would be the shortest:
CryptoJulio
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is your scenario still valid ? we are down more...
TBooch
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@CryptoJulio, No, my count is no longer valid and my outlook is pretty bearish now. We never should have crossed 1800 sats as I was expecting to bounce around 1950 sats. Unfortunately, that’s how elliott wave goes sometimes and even with an oversold RSI you don’t get results you’re looking for, so you have to move things around and do a recount. My apologies for discounting @Wolverinos idea of it possibly still being an ABC pattern because what I initially thought was the end of the C wave, I now think is the 3rd wave and that we are in an extended 5th wave of a large C wave.
The good news is that would be setting up for a massive wave 3 instead of a wave B. The bad news is that it's a lot further down. Sadly, I think ADA is headed to the 1200 - 1150 sats region. Which makes sense as there was a lot of prior resistance there and it should act as support now.
This has been a tough count and I've come up with a few different possible scenarios, but this one is getting the most confluence for me now so even with the crazy oversold RSI this is where I’m now lead to believe we're headed. Unfortunately, I don’t have much faith in Wave 4 even reaching the 50% retracement at 2072 sats, as all the retracements for ADA have been weak so far. But I could be wrong and it reverses now. If we pass 2475 sats, that would invalidate my count and ADA is going higher. If you're still holding, good luck and I'll join you on the dip!