Not such a far-fetched idea, given that ADA investors are dying to get back into one of the greatest ecosystems post-hard fork. Covid varients, Evergrande, BTC instability, and USD inflation have all impacted the rise of ADA since its last successful upgrade. Positive catalysts with bad timing crippled ADA in recent months. Time as a function is hard to predict, but statistics can give us an idea. When are we going to die? Statistically, around 80, but some people die too young and others live past 100.
Each time ADA drops 35% below (est) the 50 MA, the market responds with solid 200%+ gains. The last time this happened, that path to a new ATH took a little over a month from when it began its uptrend. Again, there were concerns about Covid, whether or not Alonzo would pan out, and simply recovering from dipping so low in that people didn't know if this bull run was over or not. I don't think investors are going to be as hesitant this time. I think it will be explosive. Shit coins can explode 1000% in a week...ADA is legit and this is 200% over 3 weeks. We are due to hit the lower trend line @ $1.20 which will bring it around 35% below the 50 MA. The bounce from this support could very easily be what ADA needs to energize its undervalued price tag, blowing through "the looming resistances" that were created on the way down, exploding to a new ATH at the upper trend line around $3.75. ADA is legit and needs to show the world that it isn't just bleeding away and the investing world wants to see it. It has had positive developments with bad timing in regard to extrinsic factors beyond its control and not a reflection of its true intrinsic value. 110 days between ATH's is coming up and ADA may have a holiday present for its crypto-savvy supporters. This is not financial advice...just an exercise in crunching numbers with their correlation to historical data and events.
For ADA going below $1.20, without any support besides the psychological $1, means ADA would have to go away. The last time an organization with a 71B diluted Market Cap went away in the months after improving its product was...never. Good luck...and remember that these are just ideas that make sense, not financial advice. ADA has strong support at $1.40 should the bulls not be too exhausted. The bulls are tired and are potentially letting this drop to the $1.20 area because there aren't many other supports...and who wouldn't want to buy a $1.20 ADA? Not everyone can get in at $1.20 so I expect it to bounce fast as prepared investors may be jumping in early as to not miss out. You know the tweakers are getting in at $1.2345. $3.75 will be a great stepping stone on its path to $5. Let me know what you think.