Cardano holders have certainly had a rough time. But the pain might soon be over. I don't expect it to be over just yet but maybe around this late summer. This idea is, as usual based on the ewt and feel free to ask any questions or state disagreements.
The 2nd of September 2021 marked the all time high at a price of around 3$. Since then, cardano has been falling more than 80%! Now, where would the bottom be?
In this analysis, I marked the all time high as the last wave of a primary wave , meaning the fall since then is a wave .
Wave are known to be brutal and retrace a lot of wave . Even if the fall seems heavy, it has in fact only retraced 38.2% of wave on a log scale (the scale that should be used in very volatil products like cardano). So having a bit more downside left to do isn't impossible.
If we look closer at this wave , then we can see that cardano has done a zigzag* since the all time high:
>The first wave (A) of it being a normal impulse ending around 1$ the 10th of January 2022.
>The next wave (B), ending around 1.6$ the 18th of January 2022, after having retraced 38.2% of wave (A).
>The last wave (C), which we currently are in, has made 3 complete waves so far, each one of them being swings of 3 waves themselves. This is telling me that it should be an ending diagonal** meaning that the 4th of (C) should also make 3 swings and break the low made by wave 1 of (C) at 0.74$. Once this is realized, I think we will have a last low of capitulation pushing the price to a new low around 0.3$, the 161.8% fib extension level of wave (A)-(B). This entire ending diagonal will also result in a expanding one just because wave 3 of it was too large for it to become a contracting diagonal.
Once this level will be hit, we should rise as a wave to new all time highs.
* Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
**An ending diagonal: is a 5 waves move that happens in either in wave 5 of an impulse or wave C of a zigzag . It's the only bullish 5 waves sequence (with the leading diagonal ) where the 4th wave of it breaks below the top of the 1st wave. Its' subwaves are always 3 waves sequences.
The 2nd of September 2021 marked the all time high at a price of around 3$. Since then, cardano has been falling more than 80%! Now, where would the bottom be?
In this analysis, I marked the all time high as the last wave of a primary wave , meaning the fall since then is a wave .
Wave are known to be brutal and retrace a lot of wave . Even if the fall seems heavy, it has in fact only retraced 38.2% of wave on a log scale (the scale that should be used in very volatil products like cardano). So having a bit more downside left to do isn't impossible.
If we look closer at this wave , then we can see that cardano has done a zigzag* since the all time high:
>The first wave (A) of it being a normal impulse ending around 1$ the 10th of January 2022.
>The next wave (B), ending around 1.6$ the 18th of January 2022, after having retraced 38.2% of wave (A).
>The last wave (C), which we currently are in, has made 3 complete waves so far, each one of them being swings of 3 waves themselves. This is telling me that it should be an ending diagonal** meaning that the 4th of (C) should also make 3 swings and break the low made by wave 1 of (C) at 0.74$. Once this is realized, I think we will have a last low of capitulation pushing the price to a new low around 0.3$, the 161.8% fib extension level of wave (A)-(B). This entire ending diagonal will also result in a expanding one just because wave 3 of it was too large for it to become a contracting diagonal.
Once this level will be hit, we should rise as a wave to new all time highs.
* Zigzag: A 3 waves move where the first and the third leg are themselves 5 waves impulses separated with the middle leg which is a 3 waves correction.
**An ending diagonal: is a 5 waves move that happens in either in wave 5 of an impulse or wave C of a zigzag . It's the only bullish 5 waves sequence (with the leading diagonal ) where the 4th wave of it breaks below the top of the 1st wave. Its' subwaves are always 3 waves sequences.