ADA has failed to reach its all time high on 3 separate occasions. I missed the last one because I was gone the entire day (Saturday), but I spent a bit of time checking the the different timeframes and noticed a few things signaling a possible trend reversal. The first is the the most obvious: downward sloping highs. However, it lacks the retracement to confirm the trend reversal. If you take a look at the orange line I made covering the 200MA, I made this so you can see the slope diverge and slump over (the 200MA is the tiny orange line breaking off of the thick orange line). The next thing you want to keep an eye on is the large blue trend line I made. A break below this will signal a trend reversal, and falling past 2.48 will confirm a trend reversal. We have our lower highs, but we do not have our lower lows at the moment. The problem with this is confirmation of trends takes time, and for most people, they do not have the time. I have noted the possible support levels we have. If it falls, it is likely to land around 2.20. However, we will know far before that happens. I actually wanted to post a 1D or 1W chart showing where I think things will go, but I needed to use this chart to fit everything in that I wanted to talk about. All that being said, this does not mean there is a trend reversal as I said. I just want to make you all aware ADA is signaling bearish times. But like I have said a million times by now, trends change quickly. All it takes is a bit of news, a large money movement, or sentiment to shift for a trend to move in a different direction. The news regarding the release of Alonzo on the 12th has already been priced into ADA, in my opinion. For your information, I am still long on ADA and plan to hold it for around 5-10 years taking a bit of profit here and there. I will put it to you this way, I purchased ETH a long time ago around 75 bucks and sold most of it when it went to 350 back in 2017. That was quite the learning lesson for me.
Now for some good news. As a person who follows ADA closely, I know that the adoption of the platform will happen very quickly with the release of smart contracts on the 12th of September. In fact, I think it was built with such a great foundation, I might just do an entire post on the fundamentals of Cardano sometime in the future. Pretty soon, we will see NFTs being created, DeFi, applications being developed, and overall strong adoption of the ADA blockchain platform as a whole. If there will be any immediate reason for ADA to move higher, it will likely be news coming from the summit on the 25-26 of September. So I would keep an eye on their twitter accounts around that time.
Again, I apologize for having less time to post at the moment, but that will change in a couple weeks.
I am going to make a video soon teaching everyone my approach to charting. I will cover the entire workflow process I go through. I hope you enjoy it.
Now lets talk about why ADA has so much strength recently. Cardano is about to release smart contract September 12 with the Alonzo release. This addition makes it a viable competitor to ETH as an open source platform. Right now, it is just a glorified ledger. As a person who plans to be a Cadano Developer once Alonzo is released, it makes me wonder how far ADA can go. I have heard people say it cannot go to 100 dollars because it will need around a 3T market cap. But considering in the past 2 weeks ADA has added 31B to its market cap, it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility. Also, considering Grayscale Investments has picked it up, I think it has a LOT more room to grow.
Awesome sauce. I learn from everyone of your posts. So thank you for that. I reduced my ADA stake and am holding for a re-entry point for the big ride. Did the same with SOL and looking for re-entry, though this price action could be getting frothy. Wait, I see SOL caving. Hmm
GLTA, Do your DDD.
mysticalwalrus
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@Vascodegama, Thank you for the support! I really appreciate it. ADA has a very strong basing pattern on its side. This is why I believe it will eventually see some really great numbers down the road. I also got into SOL a few weeks ago. I saw a few cups forming (basing pattern), and got in at 43. Its been great ever since. For future reference, normally you would take profits or exit a position at a lower high. Keep up the great work!
Awudu1844
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Nice Presentation 👍. Am also a hodler... Am in for the long Run..
mysticalwalrus
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@Awudu1844, Thank you my friend! Yes, unless you are an active swing trader, it is best to use this approach. I am not a swing trader, I like to acquire assets for long term wealth. I only take profits when I see a lower high, but usually it is a very modest amount. Either way, I am in ADA for a long time!
nonxxan
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Reacting on your ETH example, around 2018 I bought BTC for £4500 and months later I sold it for around £2800(!) I was so scared thought it would go down to zero. One of the biggest lessons in my life.
Thank you so much for the updates!
mysticalwalrus
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@nonxxan, Thank you so much! Lessons like that are important. At the time, they seem like a terrible misstep. However, in hindsight, they teach you invaluable lessons that will propel you forward in life. I always try to tell people, don't be afraid to make mistakes, be afraid of repeating them.
PortifexMortis
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I agree with your charts 100 percent. Fundamentally ADA will no doubt grow much more by next year. If your holding long term like me then this is a no brainer. There is definitely still the possibility of a continuation sooner than most are expecting but I wouldn’t go long just yet. That being said there is too much uncertainty to short this coin. Too much risk going either way without some confirmation. Just gonna DCA this coin in my spot account, leverage a few shorts and longs here and there, and slowly transfer earnings to stake.
mysticalwalrus
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@PortifexMortis, Thank you! I agree, which is why I set this chart to "neutral". I will not change my charts to "short" until I get a trend reversal confirmation. That being said, the fundamentals of ADA speak for themselves. Holding a position in ADA for 5-10 years does not seem like a bad idea at the moment. Believe me, I will continue to dump money into ADA anytime I see a good entry. You have a great perspective and a great strategy!
PortifexMortis
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@imnotgoodatall Thanks! Been investing in large cap stocks and the big coins for a few years and started learning analysis proper when I got into crypto alts last December. There’s a handful of traders on here that I’ve learned loads from and your content from even just from the educational standpoint is so beneficial to newer traders like myself. Kind of blows my mind that there are so many investors who attempt to swing without some form of analysis to back up their plays.
mysticalwalrus
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@PortifexMortis, You are on a great path! Keep investing! If you want to build wealth, you need to spend your money acquiring assets. It is that simple. In terms of investors or swing traders I have seen it all! I have seen some that only believe in fundamentals and not technical analysis, I have seen some that believe in technical analysis and not fundamental analysis, I have seen some that don't know anything at all (and frankly don't care to), and I have seen some that use a mix of both. I definitely fall in the last category. I believe in identifying an asset based on its fundamentals, then charting its price movements using technical analysis. Anyways, thank you for the kind words and your support! I appreciate it!
GLTA, Do your DDD.