Everything else constant, has been on a free fall after breaching the 6 cents previous main support and now resistance. Unless otherwise, this trend should continue and could slip below 1 cent before year’s close.
Of interest in our analysis are Nov 28 bull bar—218 million versus 140 million and Nov 4—131 million versus 127 million, Nov 5—144 million versus 123 million and Nov 6—165 million versus 127 million. Notice that, the trend is clear, the last three bars have increasing volumes but the deviation from average is not that wide.
In the meantime, Nov 28 high trade volumes didn’t stop sellers from marching forward, reversing earlier gains. At spot rates, /USD is trading below Nov 2018 lows accompanied by high trade volumes. This is and we expect prices to trend lower unless of course there are surges above 3.3 cents erasing these losses.
Following drops of Nov 19, sellers drove prices below important completing the bear breakout pattern set rolling in early August. The drop has been near perpendicular and as long as prices trend below 1.5 cents, bears are in control.
11 months later and sellers are not slowing down partly because of BTC price declines. We expect losses to continue and as /USD trade below 3.3 cents, the bear breakout pattern of Nov 19 is valid and sellers are in control. Floors are not yet visible and we shall recommend buying once proper bull reversal signals print perhaps driving prices above Nov 2018 lows and even 4.5 cents.