TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION NEED LOG SCALE I have decided to look more at logarithmic scale, because it make much more sens in the term of technology adoption that the classical linear scale. I remind you that technology adoption grow with a sigmoidal curve, and the growth in this curve is exponential. So logarithmic scale make all sens with blockchain technology !
WAVES I also strongly believe in the Elliot wave theory and that when something happen with global energy in this world, it often happen with a defined number of waves, three in the case of Elliot, but not only. I'm not sure yet is ADA follow the Elliot wave theory. We will probably know more in 1 year. According the the first big ADABTC pump last year, you can noticed we had 3 beautifull and strong haves. It may be a good clue of ADA behaviour.
MARKETCAP ANALYSIS According to easy math calculation with crypto marketcap and ADA possible dominance in the middle/long term, I assume that ADA could easily reach 3 to 7$ for end of 2018:
* If global crypto marketcap make x10 and ADA dominance stay at 2% (6th or 7th ranking) --> Marketcap crypto = 4500 billions so 1 ADA = 3$ * If global crypto marketcap make x10 and ADA dominance go to 4% (5th or 6th ranking) --> Marketcap crypto = 4500 billions so 1 ADA = 6$ * If global crypto marketcap make x10 and ADA dominance go to 10% (3rd ranking ) --> Marketcap crypto = 4500 billions so 1 ADA = 18$ * If global crypto marketcap make x20 and ADA dominance go to 4% (5th ranking ) --> Marketcap crypto = 9000 billions so 1 ADA = 14$
COMPETITION At the moment, ADA is sitting around 6 to 7th ranking, with about 1.82% of dominance. I think 2018 will allow a lot more altcoin to rise, and the time with bitcoin and it's crazy dominance >90% is an old era. I also think that if ADA can hold it's promise and deliver a nice product this year, the dominance could easily travel to 4% or maybe more. If it appears that ADA is adopted better than NEO, EOS, then ADA will reach the top 4. If ADA can beat ETH, and of course it won't be that easy, then ADA can grab the 3rd rank, and go for crazy dominance with crazy price per token. I think this case could happen in 2/3 years if ETH is still not adopted my the majority.
FUNDAMENTAL I will not talk for a long here, but ADA fundamental are the strongest around. Just waiting for proof of stake, mobile app and all the crazy stuff !!! One of the best ratted crypto project for 2018 ! Not for the stupid hype surfing lambo lovers, but for true crypto holders who wants to change the economy and the world !!!
LONG TERM MARKET CYCLES BASED ON CHART ANALYSIS ADA is still a young coin with very few chart historical, but a possible full market cycle may have occured already, and nature is getting ready for a second one!
Doing a basic study of the growth and retracement, and reporting then to the chart, I was amazed that the curve with this prediction perfectly lead to a realistic value for ADA at the end of the year ! AMAZING !
From all these points, I'm pretty confident for the year, because each point is telling me a similar result ! :)
Let's see after all of this crazy year, if I was wrong or right !!!! :)
This is fun. Although a 1:1 extension doesn't happen to often in charts, That's why people use FIB levels to determine exponential growth and retracement. Also we'll need to see ADA complete this Bear cycle to determine how long this structure took to complete and thus how many more we can fit into the calendar year. I do have a suspicion however that 2018 charts will match 2017 as far as months of active AKA July-Aug and Nov-Dec
To your point about dominance. Cardano has been transparent that they're building a whole new system from the ground up with a road map spanning into 2022. Also past months have indicated a delay in release dates with most sections of the project ranging from 5%-25% complete. From their updates it looks like Cardano will not be fully functioning in 2018. Still a good long hold imo but don't expect TRON level announcements anytime soon :P
Yes you are right, we first need to see the end of the bearish cycle to extropolate more precisely. Do you think my chart funny by interesting or inacurate ?
So according to your suspicion, nothing crazy happen before summer ? It will be such long and boring winter... I excpet things to start again around april/may.
About ADA dominance, i think even with an uncomplete product they can reach 4% like in December 2017.
They have plenty of juicy features coming this year, and from what I have read, they will implement their amazing proof of stake feature BEFORE the Casper protocol from Ethereum. I think this will grab a nice amount of market from ETH.
What price do you imagine ADA for December 2018 ?
JTJV42
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Thining about to get some ADAs pretty long. Thank you for this post. Could you recomend at what rate i should buy?
@roaken, I hope so too...
some says it can go lower, who knows...
pray the next roadmap update in 2 days is juicy, otherwise will go for another dip. And that wouldn't be so bad, I would love to buy more ADA at 0.10$ ahahha
CryptoJulio
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@roaken, for your chart, it is very possible I agree. And after this linear growth, I expect a nice FOMO leading to 2 to 4$ in spring, before going back to 1$.
CryptoJulio
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@JTJV42, bro nobody can recommend anything, we are not financial advisor !
Personnaly, I'm gonna wait a bit more to buy, I think BTC is not down enough...
To your point about dominance. Cardano has been transparent that they're building a whole new system from the ground up with a road map spanning into 2022. Also past months have indicated a delay in release dates with most sections of the project ranging from 5%-25% complete. From their updates it looks like Cardano will not be fully functioning in 2018. Still a good long hold imo but don't expect TRON level announcements anytime soon :P