Yesterday's ranged price action, although expected, was not exciting nor bullish with prices down on the day and a test of 1.30.
Today could be much more interesting. Building upward momentum may be signalling a potential break above 1.35 during ranged price action
A break above 1.40 towards 1.50 is still in play this weekend, though it could take another couple of days to play out. Overall, the bullish outlook remains intact.
Intraday Summary: 1.30 test possible, but 1.35 test likely and 1.40 possible
3H - First 3 hours of the day prices have risen to test 1.35. Green EMA is at level 50 while RSI and LSMA are rising. It may take several candles for 1.35 to be properly tested and break above if upward momentum continues. Meanwhile, expect prices around 1.35.
6H - First 6 hours of the day are bullish. White EMA is about to cross above level 50 while Green has already crossed above 50. LSMA is bottoming out and RSI is on the rise. Prices may range around 1.35 at the start of the day, but if the LSMA rises along with green EMA above white EMA, prices could rise towards 1.40 later in the day.
12H - First half of the day looks bearish with green EMA under level 50 and RSI falling. However, the basis in the second candle of the day is likely to be around 1.32 and B-bands are narrowing. This will limit downside. A test of 1.30 is possible (and unlikely to be broken), but should range between the basis and the upper white B-band (1.32 to 1.36)
1D - The daily looks bullish, but this is likely temporary. RSI and LSMA are still rising, though slowly. Green EMA has dropped below level 50 but prices are already below the yellow basis of 1.37. Rising prices today could easily reverse the downtrend of the green and white EMAs, or at least flatten them out. A fall to 1.25 (lower white B-band) is possible but the upward momentum in lower timeframes makes this unlikely. 1.30 should hold today.
Next 3 Days
If prices rise in the next 24 hours, the green EMA in the 2D could flatten or rise. With rising RSI and white EMA still high, higher prices would be expected
With 24 hours left the 3D looks very close to the green closing at level 50. Even if it comes up short, the general trend is still bullish. Prices will need to close around 1.35 or above to cement this in the next candle.
Upward momentum is in control in the 4D (2 days left). Prices should rise towards 1.40.
A rally to 1.50 or higher may not be in store until July 4-5, but continues to show a strong chance.
Good luck and good fortune!
Comment
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Update: For those who have been asking about BTC, I did an analysis of the intraday through next 10 days. There are risks of testing 32k or even 30k, but the broader picture looking to be improving with bullish indications >4 days out. It is unclear how this will affect ADA, but if it plays out per the analysis, the bullishness in ADA is supported by BTC's trends, though it may take longer than predicted for ADA to rally as forecast.
I am not sure how you see that! But take a look at btc man.
c3l3x
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@gemy155, Did a full analysis of BTC. Linked to it in this update. The timeline for an ADA rally may be too optimistic if it depends on BTC, but I am not convinced that ADA must wait for BTC to rally. However, odds are that the rally is coming based on the TA. Just need to be patient.
c3l3x
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@gemy155, The forecast played out as expected (but not without some worry). There's a steep learning curve for this method (months of daily analysis practice), but I find it quite powerful.
Forrealz
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Btc an Eth are very precarious right now, proceed with caution is my motto for now, thanks for the update
c3l3x
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@Forrealz, Wtih crypto you always need to proceed with caution! I did a detailed analysis of BTC charts across the next 10 days and linked to it in this post. I can see a test of 32k or possibly 30k, but I do not see a drop below 30k being likely without a change in fundamentals, major negative news, etc. I wouldn't classify the situation as precarious. Indeed, looking into next week there are signs of bullishness. Of course, we cannot be sure of how ADA will be affected by BTC. Also recall that ADA/BTC is looking bullish, which may mean that ADA rises before BTC rallies.
Forrealz
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Time will tell, I don’t see any high probability at the moment is all and I think some people may not understand this
c3l3x
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@Forrealz, Fair enough. ADA has been much more indecisive than I would expect. Certainly all of the bullishness could fizzle out if that continues.
As always, I hope people are looking at multiple analyses, including their own, before making any trading decisions. I feel I have a decent track record, but I've been quite wrong before and will be wrong again in the future. These are just interpretations of probabilities. I'll make a point of reminding people about this in my video.
Forrealz
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Yeah man, you’ve been doing fantastic, I’m just seeing a lot of bearishness on a daily tf here, I do like to see this optimism it helps me to keep the contrarian alive and keep humble, assuming I’m wrong every morning, let’s see how the fib levels play out during this current wave down 😊
c3l3x
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@Forrealz, lol. I probably jinxed it by saying that I was doing decently. ADA is currently struggling to hold on to 1.30. We'll see if there's enough support, and a possible rebound.
I don't use Ichimoku very often, so I'm not very strong on it. I'm curious what you think about the potential T/K crossover in the next few days despite the bearish cloud.
Forrealz
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@c3l3x, yeah great question, a bullish TK CROSS under the kumo is considered weak, in the cloud neutral and above the cloud strong, the kijun will come down to 1.319 on Binance spot when today closes, the tenkan (9 day midpoint) flat most likely for now meaning no cross tomorrow, however a TK CROSS likely in the coming days (more by default with the kijun moving bearishly down), I don't really see this as anything bullish, if anything it could create the chance to see a strong bearish TK CROSS down the track (speculation for now, but something to be aware of), also the kijun will be moving down which is never a good sign (lowering the equilibrium of the market). Also, I'd really like to see ada close above the mother candle open at 1.3261 or else we get a bearish kijun bounce trade signal, meaning another short signal.
But take a look at btc man.