ADA/USD - 1.35 test, 1.48 possible in 2D, but Untertainty Looms
Hello friends!
Yesterday, prices ranged under 1.30 as expected, and tested 1.30. Late in the day, ADA was able to ride a broader market rally to break above 1.30, but was unable to reach 1.35. The move improved indicators in daily and lower timeframes.
Today, ADA is trying to establish support at 1.30. The 3H is the most optimistic with RSI and LSMA rising together and green EMA and white EMA at similar levels. The rising LSMA has expanded the B-bands, which could allow prices to make bigger moves to the upside (or down). Lower timeframes are less optimistic, indicating weakness in the upward momentum and the potential to test 1.30. A bounce off 1.30 could return prices to test the 1.35 level, possibly breaking through to 1.40.
6H - Green and white EMAs are descending with green under white, a bearish indication. LSMA is below the RSI, and B-bands have not expanded, limiting price ranges. A test of 1.35 is possible, but prices look more sideways with a possible test of 1.30.
12H - RSI and LSMA are rising slightly, but still under level 50. White EMA has rising moderately with green lower than white. A test of 1.35 is possible with 1.38 a target if 1.35 breaks. However, RSI and LSMA will limit price movement and a test of support at 1.30 is quite possible. If 1.30 does not hold, expect prices to return towards 1.25.
1D - At first glance, the 1D looks very good with white EMA sustaining at a good level above 50, green EMA close to level 50, and RSI and LSMA rising. Indeed, prices could rise towards 1.40 later in the day or tomorrow. However, the LSMA remains very low at level 20 and would take 5-7 days to reach level 50 before B-bands could expand and allow prices to rally to much higher levels. If green and white EMAs can sustain their upward trajectory, then 1.50 may be possible by the end of the month. If not, we could see a bounce and prices again return to 1.25.
Today's new 2D chart supports the potential for prices to rally towards the yellow basis (~1.48 in the next candle), but with RSI and LSMA low under 50 and green under white EMA (bearish), the rally may be short-lived similar to the start of this month (June 2). However, if a rally is sustained, a reversal could start to form.
Today's new Weekly chart is a mixed bag. Green EMA has started to come up slightly and is higher than the white EMA, which is flattening, suggesting slowing downward momentum. However, RSI and LSMA continue to descend strongly. A strong rally above 1.40 could start to reverse the pattern, but if not prices may sink further throughout the week.
Overall, the next few days will be interesting to watch. With enough upward momentum, we could soon see 1.50 again and the setup for a bull trend in early July. However, it is too early to call the bottom. In many timeframes the LSMA is not rising and would take 1-3 weeks to regain level 50 where Bollinger bands would expand enough for the next leg up.
Indeed, another dip back towards 1.00 may be needed to test levels before that trend can start.
Good luck and good fortune!
Yesterday, prices ranged under 1.30 as expected, and tested 1.30. Late in the day, ADA was able to ride a broader market rally to break above 1.30, but was unable to reach 1.35. The move improved indicators in daily and lower timeframes.
Today, ADA is trying to establish support at 1.30. The 3H is the most optimistic with RSI and LSMA rising together and green EMA and white EMA at similar levels. The rising LSMA has expanded the B-bands, which could allow prices to make bigger moves to the upside (or down). Lower timeframes are less optimistic, indicating weakness in the upward momentum and the potential to test 1.30. A bounce off 1.30 could return prices to test the 1.35 level, possibly breaking through to 1.40.
6H - Green and white EMAs are descending with green under white, a bearish indication. LSMA is below the RSI, and B-bands have not expanded, limiting price ranges. A test of 1.35 is possible, but prices look more sideways with a possible test of 1.30.
12H - RSI and LSMA are rising slightly, but still under level 50. White EMA has rising moderately with green lower than white. A test of 1.35 is possible with 1.38 a target if 1.35 breaks. However, RSI and LSMA will limit price movement and a test of support at 1.30 is quite possible. If 1.30 does not hold, expect prices to return towards 1.25.
1D - At first glance, the 1D looks very good with white EMA sustaining at a good level above 50, green EMA close to level 50, and RSI and LSMA rising. Indeed, prices could rise towards 1.40 later in the day or tomorrow. However, the LSMA remains very low at level 20 and would take 5-7 days to reach level 50 before B-bands could expand and allow prices to rally to much higher levels. If green and white EMAs can sustain their upward trajectory, then 1.50 may be possible by the end of the month. If not, we could see a bounce and prices again return to 1.25.
Today's new 2D chart supports the potential for prices to rally towards the yellow basis (~1.48 in the next candle), but with RSI and LSMA low under 50 and green under white EMA (bearish), the rally may be short-lived similar to the start of this month (June 2). However, if a rally is sustained, a reversal could start to form.
Today's new Weekly chart is a mixed bag. Green EMA has started to come up slightly and is higher than the white EMA, which is flattening, suggesting slowing downward momentum. However, RSI and LSMA continue to descend strongly. A strong rally above 1.40 could start to reverse the pattern, but if not prices may sink further throughout the week.
Overall, the next few days will be interesting to watch. With enough upward momentum, we could soon see 1.50 again and the setup for a bull trend in early July. However, it is too early to call the bottom. In many timeframes the LSMA is not rising and would take 1-3 weeks to regain level 50 where Bollinger bands would expand enough for the next leg up.
Indeed, another dip back towards 1.00 may be needed to test levels before that trend can start.
Good luck and good fortune!
Scalping timeframes suggest that 1.30 may not hold, but that prices may not go much lower than 1.28 (yellow basis in the 3H). It is possible that prices could continue down to 1.25, but either of these are likely to be short-term.
The 12H could not close with the RSI above level 50, but it is very close in the current candle. If the green EMA bounces off level 50 in the 6H, the rising LSMA could start to expand the B-bands and prices could start to move higher, again testing 1.35.
That could be enough to push the RSI to level 50 by the time the current 12H closes. If so, there is enough upward momentum in the green and white EMAs for prices to rise, breaking through the 1.35 level and moving towards 1.40.
If that occurs, then the daily would be likely to close around its yellow basis. With all signals rising in the daily, this may lead to a rally towards 1.50. The 2D suggest this is quite possible, and the 3D is now showing the green EMA touching the RSI, indicating a crossover to upward momentum.
In summary, we cannot yet say that we have hit our macro bottom, but the zone between 1.25 and 1.28 could be a good buy. 1.30 can also be considered, but be cautious of higher price entry points on margin in case there is a dip before a sustained rally.