ADA/USD - Another Test of 1.35 and 1.48 Still in Play
Hello friends!
ADA tested 1.35 yesterday, as expected, but was rejected and fell back to 1.30. Despite this ranged action, signs of a rally in the near-term are looking stronger.
While the price action is ranged and looks uncertain, the indicators are increasingly bullish. A test of 1.35 is likely today with a possible breakout that could bring prices to 1.40 or higher. A target of 1.48 is still possible in the next 72 hours.
Note that many candles will close at the end of today's trading day, which will provide better insight into the coming days. While the near-term looks bullish, some mid-term indicators are declining further. It will be important to manage your risk in the coming 10 days, particularly with margins and liquidation prices. Another shake out could come in the next 10 days before a leg up.
Intraday
Summary: Probable test of 1.35 and chance of break above to 1.40+
3H - LSMA and green EMA are rising towards level 80. Green above RSI indicates upward momentum is in control. Green is also higher than white EMA suggesting higher highs. However, RSI is falling and white EMA is very weak. Thus, prices may struggle to reach 1.35 early in the day, and if they do, may be rejected again.
6H - Highly bullish pattern with all indicators rising and nearing (or above) level 80). RSI and LSMA rising together indicates sustained upward momentum. Green above white EMA suggests higher highs. Expect a test of 1.35, and if broken, prices could rise to the upper aqua (1.38) and test 1.40
12H - RSI has crossed above level 50 and LSMA is near level 50. The upward momentum of the green and white EMAs has tapered off, but remains high. A test of 1.35 appears likely in the first half of the day, with the potential to push up towards 1.40 in the second half
1D - LSMA is still very low, but rising. LSMA may not reach level 50 until July 3-4 without a major rally. Even then, it will need sustained upward momentum to keep rising. Only once LSMA can cross above level 50 can we expect B-bands to expand and prices able to rise much higher. Meanwhile, the indicators are increasingly bullish. Tomorrow, the RSI could cross above level 50, providing a stronger signal of upward movement. Green is lower than white EMA, which means that upward momentum is currently limited (e.g., not enough for higher highs), but this could change in teh next few days if white starts to come down or green continues higher and exceeds white. Today, expect prices to test (and likely break) 1.35 as prices move towards 1.40 or higher.
Near and Mid-Term
Less than 24 hours remain in 2D through 6D charts, so more will be know tomorrow. The 2D is likely to close with green EMA above level 50 and RSI higher than 20, which makes it probable that prices will move towards the yellow basis (1.47) in the next candle.
9D and 10D are still bearish. Without a rally above 1.45, these candles will be down for the interval when they close later today. Both charts have the RSI under 80 and green EMA under level 50. If they close at these levels, then in the next candle (next 9-10 days), it is likely that prices will fall back to the yellow basis (~1.19 in the 9D, and ~1.12 in the 10D).
As always, prices need not go all the way to the basis line, but we can expect that prices may fall to 1.20 or a bit lower on a shakeout. Falling to 1.00 appears unlikely at this point.
Moreover, while the short-term is bullish, there is a strong chance that another shake out could happen in the next week and a half. Thus, I advise caution in going too long (especially margin) at this point. There may be another (final?) chance to pick up ADA at cheaper prices before a reversal sets in. Holding 1.20 will be key to a recovery.
Good luck and good fortune!
ADA tested 1.35 yesterday, as expected, but was rejected and fell back to 1.30. Despite this ranged action, signs of a rally in the near-term are looking stronger.
While the price action is ranged and looks uncertain, the indicators are increasingly bullish. A test of 1.35 is likely today with a possible breakout that could bring prices to 1.40 or higher. A target of 1.48 is still possible in the next 72 hours.
Note that many candles will close at the end of today's trading day, which will provide better insight into the coming days. While the near-term looks bullish, some mid-term indicators are declining further. It will be important to manage your risk in the coming 10 days, particularly with margins and liquidation prices. Another shake out could come in the next 10 days before a leg up.
Intraday
Summary: Probable test of 1.35 and chance of break above to 1.40+
3H - LSMA and green EMA are rising towards level 80. Green above RSI indicates upward momentum is in control. Green is also higher than white EMA suggesting higher highs. However, RSI is falling and white EMA is very weak. Thus, prices may struggle to reach 1.35 early in the day, and if they do, may be rejected again.
6H - Highly bullish pattern with all indicators rising and nearing (or above) level 80). RSI and LSMA rising together indicates sustained upward momentum. Green above white EMA suggests higher highs. Expect a test of 1.35, and if broken, prices could rise to the upper aqua (1.38) and test 1.40
12H - RSI has crossed above level 50 and LSMA is near level 50. The upward momentum of the green and white EMAs has tapered off, but remains high. A test of 1.35 appears likely in the first half of the day, with the potential to push up towards 1.40 in the second half
1D - LSMA is still very low, but rising. LSMA may not reach level 50 until July 3-4 without a major rally. Even then, it will need sustained upward momentum to keep rising. Only once LSMA can cross above level 50 can we expect B-bands to expand and prices able to rise much higher. Meanwhile, the indicators are increasingly bullish. Tomorrow, the RSI could cross above level 50, providing a stronger signal of upward movement. Green is lower than white EMA, which means that upward momentum is currently limited (e.g., not enough for higher highs), but this could change in teh next few days if white starts to come down or green continues higher and exceeds white. Today, expect prices to test (and likely break) 1.35 as prices move towards 1.40 or higher.
Near and Mid-Term
Less than 24 hours remain in 2D through 6D charts, so more will be know tomorrow. The 2D is likely to close with green EMA above level 50 and RSI higher than 20, which makes it probable that prices will move towards the yellow basis (1.47) in the next candle.
9D and 10D are still bearish. Without a rally above 1.45, these candles will be down for the interval when they close later today. Both charts have the RSI under 80 and green EMA under level 50. If they close at these levels, then in the next candle (next 9-10 days), it is likely that prices will fall back to the yellow basis (~1.19 in the 9D, and ~1.12 in the 10D).
As always, prices need not go all the way to the basis line, but we can expect that prices may fall to 1.20 or a bit lower on a shakeout. Falling to 1.00 appears unlikely at this point.
Moreover, while the short-term is bullish, there is a strong chance that another shake out could happen in the next week and a half. Thus, I advise caution in going too long (especially margin) at this point. There may be another (final?) chance to pick up ADA at cheaper prices before a reversal sets in. Holding 1.20 will be key to a recovery.
Good luck and good fortune!
First, as forecast, ADA did test 1.40, but was ultimately rejected. However, the upward pressure is strong as prices are holding above 1.35.
Second, with only a few hours left in the trading day, we can estimate fairly well where indicators will be at the start of tomorrow. It looks very likely that indicators will continue to rise and 1.40 could be broken tomorrow as prices push up towards 1.50.
Third, many candles close at the end of today's trading day. I will analyze the new charts tomorrow, but this close to candles closing we can expect with high confidence that indicators will rise in near-term timeframes. In particular, I expect the green EMA to cross above the LSMA and level 50 in the 3D. If that can hold throughout the next candle (next ~72 hours), then it is likely that ADA will rise to the yellow basis late in the candle or the following candle (June 2) to 1.58.