Yesterday was an exciting day with several tests of support at 1.30 and indicators that looked quite negative in the first half. Some followers were skeptical of a rally, and I was also nervous that my analysis was incorrect. The forecast was, "1.30 test possible, but 1.35 test likely and 1.40 possible." In the end, 1.30 held and a strong rally started midday breaking above 1.35, establishing support at 1.35, and then rising to 1.39, fulfilling the forecast.
More importantly, the rally demonstrated that higher prices are likely in the near future, supporting the trend that I have been discussing recently.
Today, ADA will try to break above 1.40 and find new highs. Over the next few days prices should test 1.50, with a good chance of breaking above by July 5 and heading towards 1.60.
Further out there are some signs that the next leg up may come mid to late July. I will discuss this in another post when I look at more macro trends, but a hint it to extrapolate where the green EMA will be in relation to white EMA when they cross level 50 in the 6D, 1W, or 9D. If the LSMA starts rising and B-bands expand, it could be quite exciting.
Intraday Summary: Support at 1.35, test of 1.40 likely, possible break above towards 1.47
3H - Indicators in the first 3 hours of the day are starting out bullish. Timeframes below the 3H (45m, 90m) suggest sustained upward momentum to new highs with Bollinger Bands expanding, which will allow higher prices. Some profit taking could lead to a bit of oscillation under 1.40, but 1.40 is likely to be tested early in the day.
6H - First 6 hours of the day also looks bullish. White EMA is high with green just a bit below white indicating strong upward pressure. LSMA has crossed above level 50 and B-bands are expanding, which will allow higher prices. RSI is about to cross above level 50. Prices may still be challenged to rise above the upper aqua (1.40) in the first candle fo the day, but without a pullback there is a good chance of a test and break above 1.40
12H - First half of the day looks bullish with green EMA touching the LSMA. This indicates that upward momentum is in control. RSI is starting to rise after having come close to level 50. LSMA is rising, expanding B-bands for wider price action. Most encouraging is that green is higher than the white EMA. If upward momentum continues, this will lead to higher highs, which combined with expanding B-bands could rapidly increase prices.
1D - The daily looks excellent for price appreciation. RSI and LSMA are continuing their rise with RSI firmly above level 50. LSMA could cross above level 50 by July 5, which would allow B-bands to expand. Even now, green EMA is higher than white, allowing for higher highs. Green higher than both RSI and LSMA confirms upward momentum in control. This pattern indicates a good probability of sustained upward momentum. Today prices could rise towards the upper white B-band (1.47) if, and when, resistance at 1.40 is broken. Prices may not reach 1.47 in the day, but could reach the region around 1.45 and establish support at 1.40
Next 3 Days
2D - (24 hours left) - As long as prices do not fall back below 1.35, the green EMA is likely to close above level 50. With white EMA above level 80 and RSI rising, prices in the next candle starting tomorrow are likely to move towards the yellow basis (1.49). LSMA, however is still low, and rising towards level 50 will likely keep B-bands narrow. However, there is a good chance that in the next candle there will be enough momentum to test 1.50.
3D - (new) - As expected, green EMA closed above level 50. RSI and LSMA are rising. Green is lower than white. When combined with LSMA and RSI lower than 50 means price upside is limited, but the Bollinger bands are quite wide. The upper white, for instance, is just under 1.80. In the current candle it is probable that ADA will rise to the region around the yellow basis (1.57). Note that it may not reach quite that high as there will be resistance, particularly at 1.50.
Spot on yesterday! Thanks for the continued efforts.
c3l3x
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@CASTECHONE, Thank you so much for the tip! Yesterday was nerve wracking. I was confident in my forecast, but a bit worried at the PA in the first part of the day. I rechecked my indicators and even took a detailed look at BTC as some followers had asked. Very relieving then when the forecast played out. Hopefully my forecast for the next few days will play out too.
Forrealz
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Yeah nice one! These indicators have really come up with the goods here! That 12 hour chart huh!! 🤯 Great stuff man. A macro outlook here would be good now, I see this as a correction of the downtrend for now until I see some more bullish signals with ichimoku on the daily, as in a KUMO BREAKOUT or FIRST FRACTAL BREAK after a TK CROSS which may be a decent earlier entry 😊
c3l3x
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@Forrealz, Thanks! I find the 12H chart to be quite powerful, but I also like what I see in the scalping timeframes. This can give me a sense of the volatility and flow of the PA. Making the most of this method heavily relies on one's ability to see across multiple timeframes.
I'm curious to see how the next few days go from an Ichimoku perspective. It's not my forte, but it will be interesting to compare the methods
Yes, this is a good time to do a new macro analysis. I was planning to do one this past week, but wanted to wait for a reversal and some new candles.
I completely agree with your analysis. However, since the moment your idea was published, a big sell wall has emerged at the 1.55 USDT level.
c3l3x
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@alexstreltsov, Thank you. We'll see if it plays out as expected :) For the sell wall, I don't pay much attention to them. Many times I have seen big walls instantly evaporate as prices get near them. That being said, I expect the most resistance at 1.50 because it is psychologically important, but it could be that 1.55 provides strong resistance too. Before then ADA still needs to break above 1.45.