Potential for reversal to upward pressure.
Looking at the scalping group of timeframes (6m,12m,23m,45m)
The Green MA is higher than the Energy in all this group.
This indicates bullish sentiment.
For those of you who follow WyckoffMode, you will be aware that David has gone to great pains to point out that reversals to upward pressure will start in these timeframes. Due to the shortness of these timeframes, things can change quickly.
What we are seeing here is displaying the necessary early indications of a potential reversal to upward pressure.
In the 45m the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green MA. The Green has gone up very strongly with the Energy and is now higher. This is bullish. The Blue LSMA has crossed above 50 indicating that we could see an expansion of the Bollinger Bands. Based on the indicators in this TF, we are likely to see price action sit for the most part between the upper Aqua/Orange BBs. If they do expand, the price action will accelerate to the upside to stay within the confines of the Aqua/Orange.
Scalping Group
Short Term Timeframes (90m, 3h, 6h, 12h)
In the 90, the Red RSI and Blue LSMA has closed while making contact with the Green as it rises and the Red RSI has crossed above 50, the Green has risen strongly with the Energy.
We need the Green to be higher than the Energy, it seems this can happen if the Green goes out to the side allowing the Energy to fall below. In the 3h the Green is close to the Energy level and the Red RSI has closed making contact with it as it rises. The Green seems to be going up strong with the Energy. There was a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 3h and the Red RSI in the 6h. The Energy has crossed above 50 in the 3h before the Red RSI has crossed below 50. If we can close like this it means that the Energy has won the race confirming conditions for a reversal to upward pressure.
In order to confirm this transition, if we do close confirming that the Energy in the 3h has indeed won the race, we need to see the Green higher than the Energy in the 90. It is already higher than the Energy in the Scalping group of Timeframes.
To summarise:
In my opinion we stand a good chance of a reversal in the short term to upward pressure.
Please see WyckoffMode for a more detailed Near Term - Mid Term analysis.
This is not a signal nor does it represent financial advice but is my interpretation of current market dynamics for this pair.
If you got value from this publication please hit the like button.
Trade safe
aBL
The Green MA is higher than the Energy in all this group.
This indicates bullish sentiment.
For those of you who follow WyckoffMode, you will be aware that David has gone to great pains to point out that reversals to upward pressure will start in these timeframes. Due to the shortness of these timeframes, things can change quickly.
What we are seeing here is displaying the necessary early indications of a potential reversal to upward pressure.
In the 45m the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green MA. The Green has gone up very strongly with the Energy and is now higher. This is bullish. The Blue LSMA has crossed above 50 indicating that we could see an expansion of the Bollinger Bands. Based on the indicators in this TF, we are likely to see price action sit for the most part between the upper Aqua/Orange BBs. If they do expand, the price action will accelerate to the upside to stay within the confines of the Aqua/Orange.
Scalping Group
Short Term Timeframes (90m, 3h, 6h, 12h)
In the 90, the Red RSI and Blue LSMA has closed while making contact with the Green as it rises and the Red RSI has crossed above 50, the Green has risen strongly with the Energy.
We need the Green to be higher than the Energy, it seems this can happen if the Green goes out to the side allowing the Energy to fall below. In the 3h the Green is close to the Energy level and the Red RSI has closed making contact with it as it rises. The Green seems to be going up strong with the Energy. There was a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 3h and the Red RSI in the 6h. The Energy has crossed above 50 in the 3h before the Red RSI has crossed below 50. If we can close like this it means that the Energy has won the race confirming conditions for a reversal to upward pressure.
In order to confirm this transition, if we do close confirming that the Energy in the 3h has indeed won the race, we need to see the Green higher than the Energy in the 90. It is already higher than the Energy in the Scalping group of Timeframes.
To summarise:
In my opinion we stand a good chance of a reversal in the short term to upward pressure.
Please see WyckoffMode for a more detailed Near Term - Mid Term analysis.
This is not a signal nor does it represent financial advice but is my interpretation of current market dynamics for this pair.
If you got value from this publication please hit the like button.
Trade safe
aBL
Comment:
Further to last update just now, I would like to also point out that the Green is higher than the Energy in all the Near Term group of Timeframes too. The Red RSI is also above 50 in all these TFs. This is significant for a number of reasons, including determination of rough position of price action in relation to the Bollinger Bands, but also because as the Energy rises above 50, we know that upward pressure will continue until the energy falls below 50. In the daily, the Red RSI & Blue LSMA have both turned up at the 50 level and closed making contact with the Green as it rises, this again gives us potential to see the price action in the daily to go up to the Aqua/Orange upper BBs and if the Blue LSMA continues up as is likely, we are likely to see the BBs expanding, further accelerating price action to the upside. In the 2d the Red RSI is currently making contact with the Green as it rises. If we can close like this in 6 hours and 45 minutes, we will see the Energy cross bullish above 50. We would also like to see the Red RSI turn back up in this TF, if this happens we can see the price action go up to the Aqua/Orange upper BBs in this TF too (currently between $0.41381 & $0.49616). The Red RSI in the 3d is also making contact with the Green as it rises, we would like to see a close also in 6 hours and 45 minutes whilst contact remains. In the 4 hour the Red has made contact with the Green as the Green falls and the Red RSI & Blue LSMA are descending, the Energy is below 50, if in this TF the Green closes below 50 we are at risk of the price action falling to the BB basis (yellow dotted line) (currently at $0.22) however it is rising steeply so the price would be higher. I'm not suggesting that this will happen but based on the indicators currently, it remains a possibility that we need to monitor.
Again to re-state this is not financial advice but just my opinion of current market dynamics.
Trade safe
aBL
Near Term Timeframes
Again to re-state this is not financial advice but just my opinion of current market dynamics.
Trade safe
aBL
Near Term Timeframes
Comment:
Just to clarify above comments re 4d TF - this will take a while to play out...
Comment:
I've been out of the picture for most of the day yesterday looking after my son. It is now 3:30 AM and just wanted to provide a quick update to previous analysis.
We had been experiencing downward pressure and we turned bullish for a while when the Green rose above the Energy in most timeframes.
As I mentioned and as is always the case, we need to closely monitor the scalping group of timeframes for early signs of reversal. Just as we clearly saw a reversal to upward pressure cascade up from the scalping group of timeframes, we now can see potential for the reverse playing out. The Energy and the Green are flitting around a bit in these timeframes, although the Green is currently higher than the Energy in the 6m, 12m & 23m their relative levels have been swapping around a bit and it is not as convincing. Although we can currently see a case for a higher high in the lower of these TFs, in the 45m the Green has turned back down and is lower than the Energy. The Red RSI and the Blue LSMA are close to 50 and looking like they could easily turn down. If we see downward pressure establish itself in the scalping timeframes, it can easily cascade into higher timeframes just like we saw the reverse happen. This is why it is so important to constantly monitor the scalping group - it will provide early indications of what may occur in higher timeframes.
We saw the Red RSI in the 3h cross below 50 together with the Blue LSMA and the Energy came above the Green indicating downward pressure. When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 3h it triggered a downward pressure race. In order to see a resumption of upward pressure, we needed to see the Energy in the 3h CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 6 hour crossed below 50. We can see that the Energy is now above 50 in the 3h but HAS NOT CLOSED above 50. If it can close like this in just over 2h before the Red RSI in the 6h (currently at 53.8) crosses below, we do potentially have the conditions to resume upward pressure. HOWEVER, we would need to confirm this in lower timeframes by seeing the Green higher than the Energy in at least the lower three halved timeframes. This is not the case in the 90 or 45. Furthermore, it looks as though the Red RSI may well fall below 50 in the 6h. It is possible that the Blue LSMA may also fall below 50. In the 12h the Red RSI made contact with the Green as it was falling and has closed like this. As a result the Energy has fallen below 50. The Red RSI has also turned down. We are looking at a period of downward pressure, and although the Green is currently higher than the Energy, this can easily change particuluarly considering the decisive turndown of the Green. The Energy in the daily is also now above the Green, indicating bearish sentiment and the Blue LSMA ae making contact (But has not closed) with the Green as it falls just before crossing below 50.
We are currently at risk of the scenario that I mentioned in my last analysis playing out, in which the price action in the 4d could potentially drop down to the BB basis (currently at $0.22 but rising). As I said this is likely to take a while to play out.
I just wanted to provide this update as it shows a less bullish scenario than the previous one that could well play out.
Please look at WyckoffMode latest analysis on ADAUSD as this goes into better details of what we could see play out. Also David developed this system of analysis and is the master!
Please be aware that I am very busy at the moment and you should not rely on me to provide constant updates. It is important to monitor and react to changes and not to rely on short timeframe signals which I cannot keep updated.
Just to reiterate - this is not financial advice, just my interpretation of current market dynamics
Trade safe
aBL
We had been experiencing downward pressure and we turned bullish for a while when the Green rose above the Energy in most timeframes.
As I mentioned and as is always the case, we need to closely monitor the scalping group of timeframes for early signs of reversal. Just as we clearly saw a reversal to upward pressure cascade up from the scalping group of timeframes, we now can see potential for the reverse playing out. The Energy and the Green are flitting around a bit in these timeframes, although the Green is currently higher than the Energy in the 6m, 12m & 23m their relative levels have been swapping around a bit and it is not as convincing. Although we can currently see a case for a higher high in the lower of these TFs, in the 45m the Green has turned back down and is lower than the Energy. The Red RSI and the Blue LSMA are close to 50 and looking like they could easily turn down. If we see downward pressure establish itself in the scalping timeframes, it can easily cascade into higher timeframes just like we saw the reverse happen. This is why it is so important to constantly monitor the scalping group - it will provide early indications of what may occur in higher timeframes.
We saw the Red RSI in the 3h cross below 50 together with the Blue LSMA and the Energy came above the Green indicating downward pressure. When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 3h it triggered a downward pressure race. In order to see a resumption of upward pressure, we needed to see the Energy in the 3h CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 6 hour crossed below 50. We can see that the Energy is now above 50 in the 3h but HAS NOT CLOSED above 50. If it can close like this in just over 2h before the Red RSI in the 6h (currently at 53.8) crosses below, we do potentially have the conditions to resume upward pressure. HOWEVER, we would need to confirm this in lower timeframes by seeing the Green higher than the Energy in at least the lower three halved timeframes. This is not the case in the 90 or 45. Furthermore, it looks as though the Red RSI may well fall below 50 in the 6h. It is possible that the Blue LSMA may also fall below 50. In the 12h the Red RSI made contact with the Green as it was falling and has closed like this. As a result the Energy has fallen below 50. The Red RSI has also turned down. We are looking at a period of downward pressure, and although the Green is currently higher than the Energy, this can easily change particuluarly considering the decisive turndown of the Green. The Energy in the daily is also now above the Green, indicating bearish sentiment and the Blue LSMA ae making contact (But has not closed) with the Green as it falls just before crossing below 50.
We are currently at risk of the scenario that I mentioned in my last analysis playing out, in which the price action in the 4d could potentially drop down to the BB basis (currently at $0.22 but rising). As I said this is likely to take a while to play out.
I just wanted to provide this update as it shows a less bullish scenario than the previous one that could well play out.
Please look at WyckoffMode latest analysis on ADAUSD as this goes into better details of what we could see play out. Also David developed this system of analysis and is the master!
Please be aware that I am very busy at the moment and you should not rely on me to provide constant updates. It is important to monitor and react to changes and not to rely on short timeframe signals which I cannot keep updated.
Just to reiterate - this is not financial advice, just my interpretation of current market dynamics
Trade safe
aBL
Comment:
Just a quick update to point out that we need to be a little cautions and closely monitor the scalping group of TFs in which the Energy is above the Green for all TFs. We are likely to see lower highs throughout this group.
In the 90m the Green is higher than the Energy, however the Red RSI has crossed but not closed below 50 & the Blue LSMA is close to crossing below 50. Currently the BBs are contracting, if the Blue LSMA continues to move down below 50 we could see the BBs expand and the price action could potentially accelerate down between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs as they expand. In the 3h the Red RSI and Blue LSMA have closed making contact with the Green as it falls and has now crossed below 50 indicating bearish sentiment. In the 6h the Red RSI & Blue LSMA have also made contact with the Green as it falls, also indicating bearish sentiment. As the Red RSI is above 80 in the 6h we will not necessarily see the price action fall to the BB basis if the Green closes below 50 but will need to continue to monitor.
In the 90, because the Red RSI has crossed below 50 a downward pressure race has been triggered between the Energy in the 90m and the Red RSI in the 3h. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 90m CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 3h CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the preceding three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered in order to see a chance of upward pressure.
In all the Near term group of timeframes, we are still bullish with the Green higher than the Energy. Furthermore the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it rises in all this group of TFs.
To summerise:
From what I can currently see in the indicators, in my opinion we may see a period of downward pressure before resuming upward pressure. If the Blue LSMA and Red RSI can turn up in the 90, it is possible that we may not see a significant dip in price action. But we need to continue to monitor this pair to see how the downward pressure in the scalping group propagates.
In the 90, because the Red RSI has crossed below 50 a downward pressure race has been triggered between the Energy in the 90m and the Red RSI in the 3h. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 90m CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 3h CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the preceding three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered in order to see a chance of upward pressure.
To summerise:
From what I can currently see in the indicators, in my opinion we may see a period of downward pressure before resuming upward pressure. If the Blue LSMA and Red RSI can turn up in the 90, it is possible that we may not see a significant dip in price action. But we need to continue to monitor this pair to see how the downward pressure in the scalping group propagates.
Comment:
Further to previous update
As indicated, we wanted to see the Blue LSMA & Red RSI in the 90m turn up. We can see signs of this happening now..
We are now seeing Green higher than the Energy in the 6m and 12m which indicates bullish sentiment. The Green is going up super strong in the 23 and can well become higher than the Energy. The Green has also gone up strong with the Energy in the 45m and although the Energy is above the Green, again the Green can go out to the side and the Energy can fall below. The Energy is super high and is likely to turn down soon. The Green has shot up after the Red RSI & Blue LSMA made contact with it from a very oversold position. So we do have the beginnings for conditions conducive to resumption of upward pressure. Encouraging signs again in the short term TFs - I will try and put a bit more meat on the bones when I get a moment....
...since starting this analysis the Green has indeed risen above the Energy in the 23m.
So things are looking promising again...
..despite in the 6m the Red RSI & Blue LSMA have closed making contact with the Green as it falls, the Red RSI is above 80, so we are unlikely to see the price action in the 6m drop to the proximity of the BB basis and as the Green is higher than the Energy, we are likely to see a higher low when the Green falls below 50 - probably on the next 6m candle...
As indicated, we wanted to see the Blue LSMA & Red RSI in the 90m turn up. We can see signs of this happening now..
We are now seeing Green higher than the Energy in the 6m and 12m which indicates bullish sentiment. The Green is going up super strong in the 23 and can well become higher than the Energy. The Green has also gone up strong with the Energy in the 45m and although the Energy is above the Green, again the Green can go out to the side and the Energy can fall below. The Energy is super high and is likely to turn down soon. The Green has shot up after the Red RSI & Blue LSMA made contact with it from a very oversold position. So we do have the beginnings for conditions conducive to resumption of upward pressure. Encouraging signs again in the short term TFs - I will try and put a bit more meat on the bones when I get a moment....
...since starting this analysis the Green has indeed risen above the Energy in the 23m.
So things are looking promising again...
..despite in the 6m the Red RSI & Blue LSMA have closed making contact with the Green as it falls, the Red RSI is above 80, so we are unlikely to see the price action in the 6m drop to the proximity of the BB basis and as the Green is higher than the Energy, we are likely to see a higher low when the Green falls below 50 - probably on the next 6m candle...
Comment:
Cardano continues to look bullish
The Green MA is higher than the Energy in all Near Term TFs.
We can see that the Energy has exhausted and turned down in the daily and the Red RSI is making contact with the Green as it falls. However it would need to close like this in just under 21 hours to indicate downward pressure, from what we can see in the higher TFs, it is my view that the Green may turn back up in the daily and the Energy may only dip slightly below 50 if at all. In the 2d The Red RSI & the Blue LSMA have made contact with the Green as it rises indicating upward pressure, as the Red RSI is well above 50, we are likely to see upward pressure continue until the Energy drops below 50 again, the energy is still rising but could exhaust soon, in my opinion it is unlikely to drop below 50 for another two 2d candles. We are likely to see some resistance at $0.50 and may well see some consolidation around this level. In the 4d we had seen potential for downward pressure, however the Green turned back up and the Red RSI made contact with it as it rose, we would like to see it close like this indicating a continuation of upward pressure in this TF.
In all the mid term group of TFs (3d, 6d, 9d, 12d) the Green is higher than the Energy indicating bullish sentiment. We have to be aware that the Energy in the 6d has dropped below 50 and could potentially indicate a dip in this TF if the current 6d candle closes like this, however this may just be a slight dip below 50 judging by the fact that the Green is turning up in the 9d and the Energy is sloping out to a shallower decline, it is possible for the Energy in this TF to turn back up. We have to be aware that the Energy in the 12d has dropped below 70 indicating that we could see conditions indicating a reversal in this TF, this does not mean we will see one, but that we should keep monitoring lower TFs.
Happy Trading...
aBL
The Green MA is higher than the Energy in all Near Term TFs.
We can see that the Energy has exhausted and turned down in the daily and the Red RSI is making contact with the Green as it falls. However it would need to close like this in just under 21 hours to indicate downward pressure, from what we can see in the higher TFs, it is my view that the Green may turn back up in the daily and the Energy may only dip slightly below 50 if at all. In the 2d The Red RSI & the Blue LSMA have made contact with the Green as it rises indicating upward pressure, as the Red RSI is well above 50, we are likely to see upward pressure continue until the Energy drops below 50 again, the energy is still rising but could exhaust soon, in my opinion it is unlikely to drop below 50 for another two 2d candles. We are likely to see some resistance at $0.50 and may well see some consolidation around this level. In the 4d we had seen potential for downward pressure, however the Green turned back up and the Red RSI made contact with it as it rose, we would like to see it close like this indicating a continuation of upward pressure in this TF.
In all the mid term group of TFs (3d, 6d, 9d, 12d) the Green is higher than the Energy indicating bullish sentiment. We have to be aware that the Energy in the 6d has dropped below 50 and could potentially indicate a dip in this TF if the current 6d candle closes like this, however this may just be a slight dip below 50 judging by the fact that the Green is turning up in the 9d and the Energy is sloping out to a shallower decline, it is possible for the Energy in this TF to turn back up. We have to be aware that the Energy in the 12d has dropped below 70 indicating that we could see conditions indicating a reversal in this TF, this does not mean we will see one, but that we should keep monitoring lower TFs.
Happy Trading...
aBL
Comment:
Very quick update - not going into much detail here but just to point out, particularly for WyckoffMode followers, you will have seen the latest update stressing the importance of monitoring the Energy levels in the 3d & weekly to get an idea of when we could see this period of upward pressure come to an end. We can currently see the Energy levels in both these timeframes retracting to the upside instead of falling. This potentially indicates a reluctance to revert to downward pressure and can delay when this happens. This is really just a snapshot and still needs regularly monitoring as well as the scalping TFs.
Comment:
Another quick update to point out that we have reason to be cautious at the moment because of the Energy levels in relation to the Green MA in the scalping TFs indicating downward pressure in these TFs. I will look at higher TFs shortly...
The Energy in the 3h closed above 50 before the Red RSI in the 6h crossed below 50 - in fact the Red RSI in the 6h has not crossed below 50 and looks as if it wants to turn up. As I mentioned, in order to confirm a reversal to sustained upward pressure, we needed to see the Green higher than the Energy in the 90m. This is now the case. We actually needed to see the Green higher than the Energy in at least the three lower timeframes than the one where the race originated with the Energy. The Green is now higher than the Energy in the 90m and all four scalping timeframes. In the 6h we can see the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have both made contact with the Green as it rises which is a bullish signal. As the Red RSI is above 50 as the Green came up above 50 there was an expectation that the price action would go up to at least the White/Aqua upper BBs. However as the Blue LSMA has turned up and is very close to 50, we can very well see the price action continuing up between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs with the potential to wick up to the Red upper. As the Blue LSMA approaches 50 and crosses it, there is a good chance that the BBs will expand, further accelerating the rise in prica action. In the 12h, the Red RSI has turned and crossed above 56 indicating that we are also likely to see the price action reside with the candle bodies between the White/Aqua upper BBs in this timeframe too, the Blue LSMA has turned up and is heading up toward 50, if it can cross above 50 we are likely to see the price action continue up between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs and there is a good chance of the BBs expanding in this TF too.
Good luck & Trade safe
aBL