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ADHI membeli, menahan, atau menjual?

Short
IDX:ADHI   ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK
Terima kasih telah menonton.

Grafik ADHI menunjukkan kelemahan yang signifikan. Hampir semua kenaikan harga selama 10 tahun sebelumnya telah terhapus. Jadi jual, tahan, atau beli?

Sayangnya, fibonacci tidak membantu karena semua level retracement normal telah terlampaui. Hanya ada dua level yang harus diperhatikan; 360; ayunan rendah baru-baru ini dan 120, terendah sepanjang masa 2008. Saya berharap level 360 akan diuji ulang dalam jangka pendek terutama karena faktor fundamental seperti Indonesia memasuki resesi, kehilangan pekerjaan yang drastis, dan penurunan permintaan di beberapa sektor bisnis utama yang dilayani oleh ADHI , terutama perhotelan, minyak dan gas, dan cluster perumahan.

Keramahan; hotel dan restoran sangat terpukul oleh krisis pada tahun 2020 dengan penurunan hunian hotel bisnis dan rekreasi. Saya tidak akan terlalu khawatir tentang konstruksi baru di sektor ini karena yang jauh lebih mungkin adalah pengurangan kapasitas.

Minyak dan gas; dibandingkan dengan awal Jan atau Feb 2020, minyak dan gas merupakan industri yang sangat berbeda. Sebagian besar produksi telah lepas landas. Biaya eksplorasi dipangkas. Garis waktu untuk elektrifikasi pembuatan kendaraan telah maju dan industri kendaraan global menjauh dari mesin diesel dan bensin. Saat ini, karena alasan lain, permintaan jauh di bawah level 2019 yang menunjukkan bahwa konstruksi tambahan akan memiliki permintaan yang rendah.

Cluster perumahan; rumah yang dibangun dengan baik di cluster yang dikelola masih akan diminati, namun, saya akan mempertanyakan apakah mereka akan diminati dengan harga saat ini. Pemilik rumah di kawasan hunian (secara umum) kemungkinan besar akan menyadari bahwa nilai jual kembali dari investasi tersebut terus terkikis selama 3-4 tahun terakhir sementara proyek konstruksi baru terus berjalan. Dalam jangka pendek, pasokan akan tetap kuat pada saat kelayakan kredit konsumen menurun.

Retracement pada 2008-9 sekitar 85% dan saat ini retracement hanya mencapai sekitar 70%.

Histogram MACD menunjukkan tren menurun.

Jika level 360Rp menahan peningkatan volume , itu akan menjadi tanda positif dan mungkin menunjukkan bahwa aksi jual telah mencapai puncaknya dan pembelian dapat dijamin.

Untuk saat ini, saya hanya akan melihat grafik dan berita.

Thanks for viewing.

The ADHI chart is showing significant weakness. Almost all of the price gains over the previous 10 years have been erased. So sell, hold, or buy?

Unfortunately, fibonacci does not assist as all of the normal retracement levels have been exceeded. There are just two levels to watch remaining; 360; the recent swing low and 120, the 2008 all time low. I expect the 360 level to be re-tested in the short-term due mainly to fundamental factors such as Indonesia entering a recession, steep job losses, and demand reduction in some key business sectors served by ADHI , especially hospitality, oil and gas, and residential clusters.

Hospitality; hotels and restaurants are especially hard hit by the crisis in 2020 with business and leisure hotel occupancy plummeting. I wouldn't worry much about new construction in this sector as what is far more likely are reductions in capacity.

Oil and gas; compared to as early as Jan or Feb 2020 oil and gas is a dramatically different industry. Huge portions of production have been take off-line. Exploration costs are being slashed. Timelines for electrification of vehicle manufacture have been brough forward and the global vehicle industry is moving away from diesel and gasoline engines. Presently, for other reasons, demand is significantly under 2019 levels which suggests that additional construction will be in low demand.

Residential clusters; a well constructed house in a managed cluster will still be in demand, however, I would question if they will be in demand at current prices. Owners of houses in residential clusters (in general) will likely be aware that the resale value of the investment has been steadily eroding over the last 3-4 years while new construction projects continue to progress. In the short-term, supply will remain strong at a time when consumer credit-worthiness is impaired.

The retracement in 2008-9 was around 85% and recently the retracement has only reached around 70%.

The MACD histogram is showing a downward trend.

If the 360Rp level holds on an increase in volume that would be a positive sign and may indicate that the sell-off has peaked and a buy may be warranted.

For now, I will just watch the chart and the news.

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