Statistic from ADP:reason to be worried for buyers of the dollar

Today's statistics on the US labor market may well disappoint. At least, this is indicated by data on the level of employment in the private sector from ADP. With an average forecast of experts in +190K, in fact the figure was +177K. Overall, there is nothing terrible in this figure. By itself, it is very, very good. The problem is that the States have become a hostage of excellent data. Markets have become too accustomed to numbers of + 200K and above. Accordingly, any negative deviation from the forecasts may be interpreted by participants of financial markets as the beginning of problems in the US economy, with all the ensuing consequences: a decrease in GDP growth rates, an end to the Fed's rate increase phase, and so on.

Just in case, let's remind you that today is published a whole block of data that includes not only the number of new jobs created outside agriculture, but also the rate of unemployment, and, which is no less important, in the conditions of the active phase of the FED interest rate increase - the average hourly earnings:

15:30 USA 3 NFP (June) 223K 190K
15:30 USA 3 Average hourly earnings (m / m) (June) 0.3% 0.3%
15:30 USA 3 Unemployment rate (June) 3.8% 3.8%

As can be seen, the forecasts are rather optimistic and, in some cases, even aggressive, and therefore the chances that they will not come true fully or partially are high.
Thus, we see on the horizon a potential fundamental threat to the dollar.

In addition, purely technically, if you look at the graph of the Dollar Index , you can see its inability to overcome the key resistance 95 and can see signs of a possible correction: consolidation at the top, the formation of reversal graphical patterns, candlestick signals, trend indicators enter into a neutral negative state (see KenJi and TDI indications), etc.

Total, dollar sales continue to look more promising than its purchases.

Авторские индикаторы от лучших трейдеров и аналитиков


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