$Aegon and back again?

Component Multiple Bear €B Base €B Bull €B Bear $/sh Base $/sh Bull $/sh
Transamerica (US life) 6.5–10x earn 5.50 8.00 11.00 $4.12 $5.99 $8.23
Aegon Asset Management 7–11x earn 0.70 1.00 1.40 $0.52 $0.75 $1.05
International JVs (Brazil, Spain, China) 5–9x earn 0.40 0.60 0.90 $0.30 $0.45 $0.67
a.s.r. stake (16%) Mkt value 1.70 2.00 2.30 $1.27 $1.50 $1.72
UK proceeds (deal value, pre-close) Deal terms 2.00 2.30 2.55 $1.50 $1.72 $1.91
Existing holding cash Book 1.30 1.30 1.30 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97
Holding company overhead 6x cost −1.00 −0.90 −0.80 −$0.75 −$0.67 −$0.60
Gross financial leverage Book −4.90 −4.90 −4.50 −$3.67 −$3.67 −$3.37
Redomicile implementation cost Remaining −0.30 −0.25 −0.20 −$0.22 −$0.19 −$0.15
Financial Assets release optionality Optionality 0.00 0.00 0.30 $0.00 $0.00 $0.22
Total equity value 5.40 9.15 14.25 $4.04 $6.85 $10.65
+ Holdco discount unwind on redomicile 5–25% re-rate +$0.20 +$0.85 +$2.45
+ Buyback accretion (24 mo) 3–8% share count +$0.16 +$0.35 +$0.00
Final per-share fair value $6.40 $10.05 $13.10
vs. current price $8.02 −20.2% +25.3% +63.3%