ImmanuelKoning
Short

AEX: bottom expected!

EURONEXT:AEX   AEX Index
So far so good. :) Praise Yehovah!

Shalom,

Im
Comment: The bottom date of 3 August is playing out nicely! Signales confirmed this nicely on Friday evening (after market) 31 July.

I see a possible Harmonic Cypher Pattern to 555,50 (FTI 15/60 minute chart) before we go down again into 7 August (530± expected).
Comment: FTI is at 551,50 at 12:50 o' clock.
Comment: Repair: the Cypher Pattern would go to 559 in the FTI. This is possible and is former support (now resistance). The 555,50% is a 61,8% retracement level.
Comment: Oké, I just found out that it is very simple to post a picture. So now you can look at the picture and read the text that I wrote and all will make sense. :)
Comment: The problem I have with the Cypher target (point D) is that we would break the downward trendline that I have drawn over the tops. So let's see what happens when we get to around 555,50. :)
Trade closed manually

Comments

There came a spike up about 1,5 hours back. The market keeps going sideways and this is to much gambling. I have sold the put option for 570 euro (at 15:55 o' clock) and took a 280 euro loss to live another day. There will come way better oppertunities!

Hope everybody can learn from these examples. Somehow, 3 August was the time to cash and take 300 euro profit. I prefer daytrading over swing trading with options. It is way easier with hard rules and hard signals. :D

Whatever may happen now is not relevant anymore. The trade is over... Don't let fear and bias (I am short so it has to go down) rule your life. Taking a loss is hard but shows maturity and keeps your grounded. ;)

Shalom, Im
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It would help a lot if America would give up some territory to the downside. Still, it is cool to see that you can analyse and trade solely the AEX and be correct with a downmove while America is still going up. So don't ever let somebody tell you that you need to check everything to understand what is going on. ;)

Shalom, Im
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We saw the top as I expected thanks to my signal system and low that should timewise be coming up. This is my expectation for now (today or Monday???):

The SHS is not accurately drawn out. However, I did measure the target and it gives us 544±. The funny thing is: the potential Cypher pattern gives us the same 544± (78,6% retracement)!

The put option (AX2 AUG 558) is little in the red, but I do not give up yet. I go for it and else, well, I at least tried! :)
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rrrikke ImmanuelKoning
@ImmanuelKoning, I went short at the top (C) ... also hanging on. Deliberating what to do next. Interesting set-up indeed
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@rrrikke, I just sold. It is going sideways for to long now and then this spike up this afternoon... I know something is going to happen because I have so many dates pointing to 10/11 August (as a hard move) and my idea was a bottom per 7 August.

Well, we could have seen a bottom today before UP UP UP, but not the bottom that I thought it would be. As I have written a few days back, the bottom I was looking for seems to be August 3 (clear in the FTI, not totally satisfied in the AEX). That is what I am thinking right now but it remains guessing until the market shows its real hand next week.

I am okay no matter what happens next. I continue to learn and I know what I am supposed to do: day trading with my system and only swing trading on the longer term analysis for some extra fun. :)

Shalom, Im
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rrrikke ImmanuelKoning
@ImmanuelKoning, thx for the ideas! Will be following them ...
For now I put the stoploss @ 561 FTI. Still have some time to think if I take it over the weekend.
Have a nice weekend!
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@rrrikke, Jij ook een goed weekend gewenst! ;)
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Is this the top before the 7 August bottom? 4 Signals... ;)
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We got a reaction through the Cypher pattern yesterday and made a low at 552,70. I was expecting more (into the 7 August date) and was away from home, so I still hold the option. We went higher now and that is not what I wanted to see. So perhaps 3 August is the low and 7 August a higher low? I can do two things: take my loss because something else is playing out. Or still wait for the dip later on this week and have 'balls of steel' (no guts no glory).

I am in for the swing and will stay in the position, but this is risky, just so you know... I trade my option positions different (less hard money management) than my day trading (hard money management rules).

Shalom, Im
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careltje ImmanuelKoning
@ImmanuelKoning, holding for now. Waiting to see how the day plays out.
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