As we can see since 1999 till 2003 we have around 90% drop and since we are experiencing the biggest drop in many years, we could see the same thing happening again. I am looking to buy at around 20-10$ range around March - May 2021. We will see a little rebound now for a few months, but then we will see another big drop.
Interesting to note that Airbus at the 2003 Low @ 6.33, had a
30 e bn revenue base;
3.1 e bn Net Cash [10%]
1.5 e bn EBIT [5%]
With:
Deliveries @ 300
New Orders @ 61 e bn
By comparison, by year end 2020 Airbus might have:
40bn revenue, down from 70bn as airlines and leasing companies cancel orders
Negative Net Cash by 30bn [AIR just raised liquidity to 30bn]
Massive Loss: could be 30bn!
Few orders for 2021, perhaps <100, rather than 1000 planned
Little to no New Orders in the pipeline for several years, as Airlines struggle to stay afloat.
So, in comparison, it is difficult to see Airbus maintaining the 6.33 y.2003 LOW price, if the market simply looks back to 2003 to gauge the relative position.
Perhaps that supports my theory that AIR might go to 6.33 or even lower
30 e bn revenue base;
3.1 e bn Net Cash [10%]
1.5 e bn EBIT [5%]
With:
Deliveries @ 300
New Orders @ 61 e bn
By comparison, by year end 2020 Airbus might have:
40bn revenue, down from 70bn as airlines and leasing companies cancel orders
Negative Net Cash by 30bn [AIR just raised liquidity to 30bn]
Massive Loss: could be 30bn!
Few orders for 2021, perhaps <100, rather than 1000 planned
Little to no New Orders in the pipeline for several years, as Airlines struggle to stay afloat.
So, in comparison, it is difficult to see Airbus maintaining the 6.33 y.2003 LOW price, if the market simply looks back to 2003 to gauge the relative position.
Perhaps that supports my theory that AIR might go to 6.33 or even lower