The gold sector has been rather sanguine of late and considering the lack luster performance of the underlying, that sector under performance is understandable. I believe there are areas within the gold space that are starting to offer 'value' investors some very interesting propositions. The great part of 'value' investing is we are often presented ideas when nobody else is interested. In fact, for one reason or another, the public is generally selling when we are thinking of buying. Because we are buying 'value' (and not too concerned about day to day fluctuations) we seem to get lots of time to accumulate our positions. Once these names put in 'technical' bottoms (which seem to come around our 'value' levels but can take some time to develop) price seems to take off very quickly. Anxiety can get high during those breakouts and FOMO can often lead to poor trade location decisions. So the question is, as 'value' investors what's the most efficient way to be a shareholder? Interestingly, Options by far are the most efficient way of become a stockholder but very few in the public understand how they work. Put-option-writes are, in my opinion, the only way investors should ever take long positions in large cap stocks. Not only does one buy the stock with the Put-option-write (keep in mind we fully expect to get exercised) but we also get to take advantage of bearish sentiment (through inflated premiums). Indeed, the case for writing options gets even more compelling if you understand how the modern day brokerage system works. If you chose to hold the position on margin in your brokerage account, you can literally collect enough of that bearish sentiment premium to pay the margin requirement to hold the stock indefinitely (as long as it stays 'option eligible') and get a little bit extra too - my 'get paid to buy stock' scenario....Here then above is a graphical demonstration of the WDB model in action. The model suggested we could get paid $3.10 by writing the August, 2014 $5.00 Put. If done and exercised, the margin requirement to hold the $5.00 position would be $1.50 (30% of underlying). Keep in mind, we were paid $3.10 (more than a 200% premium) ahead of time....Target to sell half the position is double our cash cost price ($3.80) which should create a 'risk free' trade on the remaining shares. That level seems achievable considering it is well below the natural 38.2 Fib & 200 week sma.
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Now that gold (the commodity) is looking more bearish than expected previously, are you still sticking to this trading plan? Most analysts predict gold going to 1000 either in this year or the next. This would indirectly negatively impact AKG.
CRInvestor
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I absolutely luv this gold stock. Tonne of cash on the books, trading well below book value and no debt. As my commentary mentioned, cost to carry stock is currently roughly $1.50 so lots of cushion to ride out a quarter or two under performance from the underlying. This is a value play at the moment not a technical or momentum play...buy and hold