Like, ok, I'm pretty sure our Algorand coins are going to be worth quite a bit of $ in the future, right? I mean like at least double at some point, almost guaranteed. Right now it looks like "the market agrees," but there will be specific time intervals where that definitely isn't the case.
The end is nigh! Abandon all hope!
Until a whale steps in and is like, "nah, here's a rug for u bro."
So these intervals! These time periods of bullish and bearish sentiment! I've got four of these weird triangles plotted out that correlate to the price action for given periods. I chose most of my points of off "best fit" criteria, but I'm not applying a great deal of in-depth statistical analysis.
I think the edge here is that a lot of the market maybe isn't either, so we get to see the prices reflect the imperfection of man on a more granular scale.
Anyway- for my specific strategy for this time period, I've got a spread of buys that I adjust accordingly on the intersection points between the bullish and bearish sentiment flags. Since I'm buying/selling more than I intend to own long term, I've also got a spread of sells that correlate to my "Excite" and "Euphoric" price points, but I'm also sending some portion to my Algo wallet at regular intervals as the market churns. 6% APY for just... nothing? No coding, no staking, no gas, just more coins on the thing for the thing?
On the crossover points: when determining the validity of these intersections, I also consider whether or not they already lie on preexisting "psychological barriers." If I don't have to adjust a flag for it to have already conformed to a psychological number (n.0000), then it's an indicator to me that the given price will be accurate. The last chart I drew had a few of these, and it was interesting to see the price movement as they approached. I postulated about the cause of this correlation and can only theorize that it's related to that vacuous thing I said before about granularity and people brains.
Whatever anyway here's some colors. I'm probably not doing this right. If you aren't helping me, you aren't being helpful.
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Some numbers I'm guessing at!
Pivot point at 1.545. Right now that's resistance. Next level of support might be 1.5015 After that I might look for 1.385.
Although honestly, I have no clue.
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Oh man! What happen!?
Well, (we, the market) got scared!! But only a bit, and it's only because the Dog / Moon guy creeps people out.
So it looks like we rode along the fear channel to close out 5/8, and since I don't have any optimism written in, you'll have to extrapolate your own conclusions from the recent bounce on 5/9.
Dead cat or coiling up? Other "moderately-equivalent" altcoins are looking pretty meteoric right now, so I'm guessing that we're probably just seeing opportunistic traders shifting their positions.
Oh, uhhhh SHORT TERM CATALYSTS THO: -Tier 1 bank announcement (?) -Basquet fund (SEC form N-2 (currently under the radar?)) -More DeFi coming to algorand; Avalanche, okcoin, yieldly (and them sweet low fees) -Governance, which honestly just sounds .. kinda fun? Am I getting old?
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The order book on Coinbase Pro is being a memelord right now with a big sell wall at 1.6969.
For lols and fyi.
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A tighter shape on the darker triangle would have produced a more accurate result, but it appears as if a thing happened at the intersection between euphoria and apocalypse. If the joyous rally continues, we may see prices up to $1.62. I dunno, check the order book. Always check the order book on your exchange!
Is that advice? It's probably bad advice. Don't listen to me.
Market dumps and interest rates, I guess. Global conflict. Boooo!!!
But it's weird that it's all kinda already there, right? I dunno, confirmation bias is also pretty strong, and I find that I might be susceptible.
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I'm lolling at it, yeah, but really- drawing some more lines out and throwing wild guesses galore, it's looking like my new (lower-high) price target is $1.6699.
@benjo93, BRO! My bad, it really does! It's definitely a lot easier to model the short term upside right now though.
capitalkha
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good analysis. why also hasn't broken ATH when everything else has is beyond me but i'll wait.
pleasesendhel
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@capitalkha, Thanks! As to why it hasn't broken its ATH might have something to do with the accelerated vesting for early backers, which is an intrinsic part of the Algorand Foundation's plan for "tonkenomics." It's actually one of the few things I see called out as a "disadvantage" of algo, but I believe it has something to do with increasing adoption in order to maintain a healthy decentralized network. That's what I hear, least-a-ways. On the other hand, this also speaks to the potential long term opportunity that Algorand as a financial instrument holds... So I guess we'll see!
edit: I should add that the "early backers" are like... research institutions, financial institutions, universities... things I generally consider more secure and stable than, say, new VC funds or something.
DFUZZY1
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Thanks this is great :-)
pleasesendhel
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@DFUZZY1, Thanks for the feedback! I can only very strongly caution against using this as legitimate advice, and there's always the standard disclosure about risk- I'm sure you've seen somebody else say it.
I say this because I FOMO'd and did a bad call on my own chart.
I'm such an idiot!! I'd be willing to put my whole reputation on the long term uptrend, however.