AlgoRand has been a pleasure to trade, with Fibs guiding the way perfectly. (see links below)
But currently things are not very clear, and Bitcoin is having random spasms.
So any trades right now are fraught with extra risk, even for the cyrptoverse.
The "Holy Grail" of entries is a "Wave 3 of 3" or with more "of 3's" following.
Algo could be approaching one such inflection point, maybe in wave 2 now.
Or, it could just be in a subwave of "C", the last leg of correction process.
Alas, I am NOT an "expert" (whatever that is), am just a simpleton.
I do see the "5 this-way then 3 that-way" motions in all assets and timeframes.
So the question now is: Have we seen a 3-wave correction completed already?
Any "12345" could just as easily be labeled an "ABC" or "ABCDE".
And EW is 100% right in "hindsight" but hard to garner "foresight".
But as always, my "Fib Zones" are solid and will cause reactions.
Previous Algo analysis (click):
.25 Retrace Map
.29 Top Alert
.24 Bounce Call
.20 Bottom Map
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Zooming IN to 1min chart and throwing a fib on our proposed "waves 1 and 2 of (3)" the bounce was from a little ABOVE the .618 retracement.
If we get a new local high, then we can have some confidence in this bounce.
If can break .2680/88 them we might have an honest to goodness wave 3 being born.
Of note, a wave 3 should have 5 subwaves itself, so looking for clues of that happening.....
Now we just need Bitcoin to not do anything crazy :)
Strong rejection here could continue a "wave 3" DOWN.
Minor pullback and bounce, say from the 382 at most, would be a good sign.
Waves 1 and 2 are notoriously difficult to spot because they can be almost bearish looking.
It is EASY to spot a wave 3 AFTER it has launched, and then it is too late to enter most of the time.
So this is where an entry with stop loss below the 618 was worth considering.
ie: It does not look like a wave 3 is launching yet.
Zoomed IN and looking at the last leg down , it will probably go lower Test of the 2560 support seems inevitable.
Zoomed OUT and using the new data above, looks like we WERE in a wave "4 of C" and ARE now in "5 of C" which points to at least a "Double Bottom" Spots a new possible support in between (purple_. Also allows us the make some adjustments to the zones per note in snap above.
Looks like we are still in wave C.
2560 becomes the confirm/deny price.
Likely we will see at least a double bottom.
So much for my pessimism above.
Finally broke upwards, looks very much like a wave 3 And the original target looks achievable.
I have not yet started measuring this move (just got online).
Wave 3 might not be done yet, or maybe all 5 waves are done (unlikely).
Will update after some scrutiny.
NEW FIB for wave 3
Possible paths from here
Let me see if wave 4 offers any more clues as it develops.
Arrived at first possible bounce point If not here, then next zone below.
Good sign that it is at least paused here.
wave 3 target 1 from original plot hit But as the waves have developed, I think we have more headroom before wave 4 retrace, but lets see.
Sometimes it is best to leave original TA alone, even after movements
But other times the new Data/Math give more accurate results.
So for consideration later, this is my current outlook
Lets see which one (if either) plays out.
Wave 4 might be under way
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It does look familiar
Will ponder that some, ty!
I am currently optimistic about a new leg up starting, but needs to surpass local high of 2680 with some vigor to hint at a new wave 3.
I was less optimistic after that local "double top" at 2780, but coming back to it a third time is a very good sign.
Wave 2's often retrace most of wave 1 (as much as 78.6% of A) and we bounced a little above that.
Really needs to brake 2780 on this third attempt, otherwise we might get another leg down yet.