There is definitely a possibility that spy could keep falling significantly more , there was a very weak support today but just before I started to write this, it broke support downwards . This last drop the SPY experienced was after an extremely bullish trend . The SPY does not have a good support, so definitely be careful with this idea of mine and be fully ready to accept that things could turn worse and you could lose money .
Ok, now that that's said ....
I think that based on ALK's charts that we should see it go up soon. This is especially supported by looking at the prior percentage drops so far since march 18th lows. My guess is also that even if SPY closes lower, that it will still manage to maintain support for the time being around the current levels . SPY has dropped about 7.1% this downtrend, which is the greatest drop experienced since March 18th lows. As a result of these factors , it only makes sense that the possibility both that SPY and ALK will be making gains next week is greater than downside risk .
So , based on this, I have kept my ALK position and set a stop at 34.49.
I think that although we will see more uncertainty with the formation of SPY's support , it will still hold within 2% or so of current levels before heading back up .
I believe the largest risk at this time is bad news , especially if its in regard to alarming new covid infections starting again. However, at this time, it seems like that is always a threat.
This is a pretty risky position, I understand that I am taking a risk of a massive gap down on Monday and you should too. That being said, I think there is more possibility for upside based on the historical percentages of drop we have recently seen during bearish runs down .
Well, I was a little more leveraged than I should have let myself be with my ALK position so I took advantage of the pre-market today and sold most of my position to fix this error, then the remainder hit it's stop after Powell's announcement (which I kind of expected). Powell seems to be fairly realistic with his statements, which I appreciate . There is an increase in covid cases report out today for Florida , I feel there's a very good possibility we will hear more reports of similar situations in other states/provinces too.
As per my trading plan, negative covid reports of merit, specifically spikes in cases, were good reasons for bailout of my ALK position. So, I have taken my profit on ALK and plan to spectate for a while .
Good possibility It will keep running but I'm going to be extra cautious ....
cnn.com/2020/06/15/us/florida-coronavirus-data-dashboard/index.html
google.com/search?q=florida+covid+numbers&oq=flordia+covid+&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l7.7229j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-economic-activity-far-below-pre-pandemic-levels-despite-modest-rebound-in-some-areas-2020-06-16?mod=bnbh_mwarticle