Alaska Airlines | ALK | Long at $49.77

If the numbers (not the "economic downturn" reports on the news) are true, more and more people...year over year... are actually flying: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes

In 2024, Alaska Airlines ALK carried 36 million paying passengers, an increase from 35 million in 2023. The airline group reported 648 million available seat miles for the 12 months ending December 2023, and a 35% year-over-year increase in paying passenger miles for the fourth quarter of 2024. As of 2024, ALK is the fifth-largest airline in North America by scheduled passengers carried.

Technical Analysis

• ALK entered the channel of my selected historical simple moving average ("regression to the mean"). Given the existing upward momentum and growth prospects, it's "likely" going to continue moving up after consolidating in the channel. However, dropping to the bottom of the channel (low $40's) is a possibility. As long as the fundamentals and outlook remain promising for the company, I suspect low oil and dropping interest rates will finally send airlines stock prices up.
  

Revenue and Earnings Growth into 2028

• Continued growth after 2025: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-ALK/financials-earnings/?earnings-period=FY&revenues-period=FY

Insiders

• Warning: A LOT of selling and no buying.
  
• http://openinsider.com/DKNG

Action

• The projected growth of ALK makes sense as more people are flying. The great wealth transfer is putting money in the hands of the middle class... but the next few years may be the last run as we merge into a two-class system. So, while the stock may dip in 2025 as the economy slows (in certain segments), rising passenger numbers, lower oil, and dropping interest rates are likely to reward airlines. Thus, at $49.77, ALK is a personal buy zone with near-term risk to the low $40's.
  

Targets into 2028

1. $68.00 (+36.6%)
   
2. $79.00 (+58.7%)