AMC
I'll keep the write up short and let the chart speak to you, but a few observations here that a lot of people just won't talk about:
1. Since the runup to $72 AMC has continuously set lower highs.
2. From the peak of $72 in June to the end of November, AMC was successful in countering the lower highs with higher lows.
3. End of Nov AMC broke its major structure created during the run up in June. This pushed AMC to a ascending parallel channel created by the Feb runup, retracement, and the initial kick of the June run.
4. Price discovery During June-Nov respected the entire range of the first June weekly candle.
5. Again, Nov we see a break down out of the Alpha structure to its predominate structure. This was a a warning sign - IN RESEPCT TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ONLY.
6. This is when Lower Lows start taking place, working with the lower highs to push the price discovery back down to the range of the last May weekly candle.
7. Dec-Jan we see a case of larger price range as compared to the candle bodies, showing indecision and buyer exhaustion. The first candle body to close outside this range pushed the price down to a new (most current) range. Lower lows and Lower highs have continued through this period.
8. It is also important to recognize the level of support that was broken (created during the Jan - May run. This support and the broken support during June-Nov resistance creates a channel - keep this in mind going forward.
9. Overall, since the run up, AMC has found that is it trading at lower and lower consolidation levels.
and lastly....
10. Not one weekly candle body has closed over its active consolidation levels since June 21'. UNTILL NOW. This in mind, outside of EVERYTHING ELSE besides this chart, its a very positive indication for AMC. This has NOT happened since BEFORE the June run up.
Continued...
I thought I could stop. I can't.
What I am looking for as CONFIRMATION of my bullish feeling (not letting my emotion get to me this time) is a weekly candle that does 1 of 2 things:
A. Closes above the swing high created in Dec - this would be >$30 - This is honestly a very hard feat in 5 trading days. This though would not only break the LLLH trend but also push through the descending resistance created at the top of the Jun run AND push through the ascending level of resistance (once support but broken in Jan 22') that creates the lower part of the ascending parallel channel. This is BEST case. This is also NOT as probable as scenario B...
B. A weekly close slightly above the 2 mentioned levels of resistance. This is more achievable in my mind from a PURE TA perspective. It won't be easy. Keep in mind the REALITY of the chart. LL, LH - multiple structure breaks to the downside. These are facts.
We must talk about the elephant in the room...
I will keep this short. Look at the chart, find the next (lower) structure). Until the trend is officially broken, it is telling us that the next structure sellers are targeting is $8.93-14.05. Yes I said it. I will also say this: it is more probable than scenario A. The fact that we got a weekly close out of the current range is a GREAT SIGN that buyers are stepping in again. I suspect major resistance at $22-24 (in regards to this week only). Lets recognize the dilution factor. 5x since the Jan 21' runup. Even at current prices (when compared to the $72 high) the company is MUCH more valuable. It is simple math. The amount of buying pressure needed to get back to this price discovery would need to be MUCH greater than the prior buying pressure. THINK ABOUT MARKET CAP - especially when creating a personal PT. This is a cold hard question that NEEDS to be asked: can a company that runs from dollars to the low 70's sustain that price discovery under the conditions of dilution. This was AMC's biggest "hiccup". Yes this is a fundamental argument, but it DOES factor into TA. In TA you need a PT and SL to create a trading plan - market cap MUST be considered. Keep this in mind going forward with AMC.
Disclosure - I am LONG on AMC and have been since Jan 21 <$5 and I have been selling covered calls since NOV when I first noticed the major trend changes - this has served me VERY well and has put me in a position that I was able to accumulate more AMC at $20. Although I will not participate in calls this time, I will slow my selling of them. I LIKE what I see STARTING to develop but I will be PATIENT as to NOT get too excited...yet..until I see what the EOW brings. Please consider the fact I am not taking into consideration ANYTHING outside the chart..
I did not keep this short. No pun intended.