$AMD Bullish inverse HnS or Apophenia?
Please make sure to like if you find this idea helpful and always do your own DD as this is just my opinion.
For those that saw my AMD idea on January 11th before the market began to crash, I had showed that I expected AMD to get to around $20 with the 2020 market crash. AMD ended up heading to around $59 before it headed down to around $36. The recent recovery in the stock market (and amd SP) have led many TAs (who could end up being right) to begin seeing inverse head and shoulder forming and the stock getting ready to breakout.
In my opinion I think the overall stock market is headed down and companies whose earnings are likely to decline (and in survival mode), the last thing on their minds will be to purchase new hardware or decide on refreshing their data centers.
In my charts I believe AMD is in an ABC reversal after the astonishing rise from $1.16 in August of 2015 to $59 in Feb of 2020. Using the FIB of the whole rally (wave 1-5) I now estimate that we could see $22.50.
According to Elliot's wave, ABC has the following characteristics.
1. Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive.
Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume,
rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets
* We can see that Wave A had increased Volume
2. Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market.
Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern.
The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative
* We can see many technical analyst are seeing a head and shoulders reversal pattern, also the volume in wave B is lower that wave A
3. Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.
Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond
* This Wave is yet to form but doing a fib of Wave A, we find ourselves at around $22.50 (1.618) which is also about .618 of the whole move upwards (from Wave 1 to 5)
So the question I ask, are we in a Bullish inverse HnS or Apophenia? Time will tell.
For those that saw my AMD idea on January 11th before the market began to crash, I had showed that I expected AMD to get to around $20 with the 2020 market crash. AMD ended up heading to around $59 before it headed down to around $36. The recent recovery in the stock market (and amd SP) have led many TAs (who could end up being right) to begin seeing inverse head and shoulder forming and the stock getting ready to breakout.
In my opinion I think the overall stock market is headed down and companies whose earnings are likely to decline (and in survival mode), the last thing on their minds will be to purchase new hardware or decide on refreshing their data centers.
In my charts I believe AMD is in an ABC reversal after the astonishing rise from $1.16 in August of 2015 to $59 in Feb of 2020. Using the FIB of the whole rally (wave 1-5) I now estimate that we could see $22.50.
According to Elliot's wave, ABC has the following characteristics.
1. Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive.
Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume,
rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets
* We can see that Wave A had increased Volume
2. Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market.
Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern.
The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative
* We can see many technical analyst are seeing a head and shoulders reversal pattern, also the volume in wave B is lower that wave A
3. Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.
Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond
* This Wave is yet to form but doing a fib of Wave A, we find ourselves at around $22.50 (1.618) which is also about .618 of the whole move upwards (from Wave 1 to 5)
So the question I ask, are we in a Bullish inverse HnS or Apophenia? Time will tell.
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