A 5300% gain and 3rd attempt to break the $100 mark, the above 3-day chart now prints a 6-month regular bearish divergence as seller volume increases. RSI resistance has now been effective since September 2020 and looks likely to hold throughout 2021. Time to get out.
1st target $60
2nd target $30
Is it possible price action continues to rise? For sure.
Is it probable? Unlikely. Risk / reward is next to gambling.
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Buckle up -
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With month of January gone a new candle is printed on the monthly chart below. Bearish Engulfing following December's Gravestone DOJI. The probability strongly favours the bears at this time.
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Watch very carefully what happens to price action @ $75. If a candle closes under this level market structure will be broken. A significant collapse in price action will likely follow.
Currently price action is trading under the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, very bearish.
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The above idea is VOID should price action be @ or above $96 come the beginning of March. Cannot discount a melt-up in price action at this stage until March. If price action is @ $96 by March a rapid move to $126 will occur.
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Price action must close at or around $90 today before a new 8-day candle is printed on the 8-day chart below. If not the Gravestone DOJI is suggesting a sudden drop to $80.
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Current fall should find a pause around $73
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Now arrived at the $73 level. Market structure remains intact (higher lows) until this level is broken. A break of this level will see a rapid decline in price action.
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Fascinating yet not encouraging moves in price action, if you’re a bull. Current price action is akin to a stone skipping over water. Eventually the stone settles and sinks.
Market structure has been tested on four occasions, with each bounce making a lower high. A candle closing below $75 increases the probability of a remarkable collapse in price action.
How to trade? Wait for a confirmation. Look for a higher high to cancel this idea.
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This will be the 5th time market structure is tested. A break will result in price action making a sudden drop to $50.
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Market structure broken.
Look for support around the 1st target.
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A new 3-month / quarterly candle was recently printed - the evidence for a strong reversal in price action continues to grow as the bearish divergence now spreads across multiple months. Price action has remained exactly where it was this time last year. That is awful when you consider the S&P 500 is up 42% in the same period. AMD should be $130 now were it following the market trend.
Looking at the ideas currently published on tradingview in the last 1-2 months, 92% are long. Let me run something by you, 95% of market participants will make the wrong call.
On the 3-month chart below there is clear evidence volume is flowing out as price action continues to increase.
Look left, the 'red shaded' areas in stochastic RSI (circled in green) indicate the printing of a lower high as price action printed a higher just as it did in 1984.
Be safe!
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*Time to be extra cautious*
You can see since the break of support price action has risen back to where this idea began. If price action confirms resistance at current levels then a ugly sell off will likely result.
To avoid this projection, price action needs to break $95-100 area in the next 10-20 days.
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There is mounting evidence retail investors are being fleeced by institutional investors. I hate this.
If you’re not familiar with Wyckoff distribution there’s a link below. In summary, Mr. Wyckoff observed how smart money was using retail investors to exit a position or vice versa in accumulating a position to the determent of retail investors (like we’re seeing with BTC at the moment).
On the 1-day chart below there is considerable evidence institutions are using retail supply to unwind their positions.
There is a high probability of a dramatic sell off should price action enter the final phases. Take precautions!
<$100 - then the break of previous resistance was a fake out. Except a considerable collapse in price action.
>$100 - then the break of past resistance is confirmed. That will be amazing.
Any hints on which direction?
Look at RSI below (purple circles), resistance is about to be tested. Look left when resistance was previously confirmed.
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The 23rd came and went and price action remained >$100, that's amazing.
I'd not be long myself, I'm royally suspicious of price action entering a rising wedge formation.
Currently price action is accumulating. A break out of this formation will lead to price action moving to $150 and above.
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A run to $138 is now possible as price action breaks out of a bullish formation. This does not change the above bearish trend, it is intact. It could be price action tests the underside of past support as shown in the above chart.
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The 3-month chart is becoming crazy (below). Yes, when this idea was started price action was trading around 90. A rally to 150 followed. But that's nothing as impressive as the rally from 1.90 to 90.
The bearish outlook remains firm, there's no question. Price action could collapse to $30 and you'd still be in a massive win.
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As the year comes to a close, consider the risk on this vastly overbought stock. A rising wedge that began formation around $1.73 in late 2015.
On this 3-month chart (below) RSI is at 86 (orange line). This has occurred only twice before:
October 2020 @ $93 April 1983 @ $16.70
Price action could fall to $28 and would be still a fantastic return from 2015.
Don’t be greedy!
PS: I’ve never before seen a ‘great sell’ print on a 3-month chart!!
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Investors and speculators were sent a loud and clear message with the massive rejection from the $150 area, do not ignore it.
On the 2-month chart below a considerable bearish divergence is printing. A 'incredible sell' that I never noticed before has now printed. It is very rare to see those signals on this high time frame, i.e. never. The last time I saw a Incredible sell on a high time frame was Ethereum on the monthly chart (not 2-month!) when over 4.5k, now it's down 50%.
The $30 target remains valid. It is based on the last significant correction of 1984 to the golden ratio.
It's interesting how you're still confident in this play, despite AMD's price holding steady despite one of the largest Tech sell-offs in years and a global chip shortage dampening Earnings.
You say not to trade with emotions, and to look at the chart. AMD is bouncing yet again from the 73-74$ range; a quadruple bounce off support seems bullish to me.
I cannot claim that AMD may not break this support and trade down to 60$. In fact it is more than possible in this market structure.
I am nevertheless fascinated at your perseverance with this trade, for less than 20% returns, I would be placing my money elsewhere.
Good luck to all, especially AMD Longs :p
without_worries
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@InvestEmi, I’m very confident in my work, otherwise I’d be making my living inside the corporate world - been there done that no desire to return.
-20% in 4 months and only $13 away from 1st target, I don’t find anything steady about that. Unless you’re holding a short position.
You’re correct, I don’t trade with emotions. I find if I do, I lose money. Just like AMD bulls ;-)
A long position on AMD right now is impossible with the current resistance the oscillators are experiencing (green triangle areas) on almost every time frame I look at. The 10-day chart shows it perhaps most clearly (below). Which projects a downtrend in price action for the rest of 2021.
GregGoodenough
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Both 60 and 30 targets are not supported by fundamentals at this point. Possible only in a huge market crash scenario.
without_worries
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@GregGoodenough, Thankfully this is tradingview.com and not fundamentalview.com
UnknownUnicorn15755795
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@without_worries, thankfully very few people listen to your flawed analysis. Those who do need to be aware of your history of predicting correct stock movements as they are at risk of losing money if they follow your advice my friend!
Pray do tell how your £250k put on the FTSE100 hitting 4500 last year go again?
saltysaver
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your targets of 60 and 30 to the downside are incredibly overzealous
without_worries
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@Chris.f.hedberg, Then you are long? I knew publishing AMD would not be popular. However those targets will get hit. Not because I'm saying so, because the chart is telling us.
Look at the monthly - you've got a gravestone DOJI candle for December and another in the making as the monthly Stochastic RSI crosses down following a parabolic rally. Emotions are a money killer.
saltysaver
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@without_worries, your chart does point out some macro trends signaled in conjunction with the dojo . what it fails to ignore is some pretty major shifts in the industry and AMD. I always appreciate a good bearish take, so yes I am long AMD. I have been with it for the long haul and certainly appreciate the concern for the massive corrections. I see worst case for amd 74$, the more likely 83$. there are too many good things going for them, they wont go titanic. if you were to plot the lows trend line from dec 21 18' to mar 20 20 the most macro support trend it would be bleeding obvious were due to move higher. happy shorting, I cant wait for you to cover!
That’s right you have a 54x return despite only a doubling in annual revenue. This is a bubble that makes Mount Everest look like pimple.
Bulls make money, Bears makes money - pigs get slaughtered.
saltysaver
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@without_worries pull up their actual income statement and you'd see their eps went from $ .04 17' to est. 20' $.98 & 22' is $2.00. 24x / 50x funny how that return matches up
You say not to trade with emotions, and to look at the chart. AMD is bouncing yet again from the 73-74$ range; a quadruple bounce off support seems bullish to me.
I cannot claim that AMD may not break this support and trade down to 60$. In fact it is more than possible in this market structure.
I am nevertheless fascinated at your perseverance with this trade, for less than 20% returns, I would be placing my money elsewhere.
Good luck to all, especially AMD Longs :p