Rob.Reynolds
Short

AMD looks very weak, break below support opens up $12 tgt

NASDAQ:AMD   Advanced Micro Devices Inc
Quick follow up from last week, AMD is looking very weak. We are likely to see a breakdown today which will open up the $12 target on this final C wave lower.
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I have to agree with etradcl, $12 is very unrealistic and more of a 'worst case scenario' type of thing. Expect indecision to continue into earnings.
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Rob.Reynolds GainMachine
@GainMachine, on a relative basis vs competitors:

EV/Net Income:

AMD - 70.91
NVDA - 21.63
INTC - 12.08

For every $70 AMD is worth is produces $1 relative to INTC @ $12 for $1 net profit.

Granted, the earnings estimates for AMD in fiscal year 1 are +39% and fiscal year 2 +54% relative to their competitors who are flat. All of AMD's expected growth will not = a rising share price, its likely to remain flat for some.

The above is a more micro look at AMD, from a macro top down looking at global trade there are more headwinds than tailwinds not including the current growth slowdown. There is more risk of a surprise to AMD´s earnings on the downside than a beat.

If I take a deeper constructive look at AMD and overlay technical analysis to take advantage of the opportunity the chart is screaming $12 as a target using Elliott Wave.

My job is not to be right but to make money, I'm biased short with a soft target of $12 and should that not materialize my strategy will take me out of the trade.
+1 Reply
12$ target looks unrealistic. In my opinion...
+4 Reply
Hi @etradcl, I can only deal in probabilities and this is the best outcome that I'm seeing right now! Time will tell, managing risk is extremely important no matter what side one takes!

Have a great day!
+2 Reply
etradcl Rob.Reynolds
@Rob.Reynolds, strong support@ 21.00 and 16.24. 50-% drop is like a catastrophe, not impossible but highly improbable. However, I agree with you with short bias.
+4 Reply
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