Bullish Arms Race Begins

NASDAQ:AMD   Advanced Micro Devices Inc
825 5 23
It has been a while since I last made an idea post. This post will come out to be very rough and rushed, since I have missed on a few entry points from watching this ticker and today shows many congruent signals to enter this position.

The purpose of this post will come in two parts.
1. Do a Hindsight 20/20 analysis and provide technical analysis for my new followers. (By popular demand, lol)
2. Make a forecast of what to occur in the next two weeks.

Defining the Chart:
To get started, let’s define the chart from the top to bottom.

The most obvious on the chart is support and resistance levels. Two resistance levels are in red; $4.58, as a hard top resistance and $4.49 as a multi-top resistance. The price action support is roughly $4.18, a key level where most candles return frequently is displayed in blue. Below that are green lines, labeled upper and lower bounds; average trade ranges from last month’s price action from the manufacturing deal announced in China.

You may also notice 3 yellow rectangles. These are defining where the relative underlying trends are within trendlines of session highs and session lows, then connecting them. They will be important later on. Something new this time that I am adding to my charts are more indicators. After experimenting with many trades, I am highly favorable of the MACD indicator. For the sake of simplicity I will only cover the Stochastic RSI and MACD .

Hindsight 20/20:
The weekend from May 13th to 16th started price action and sideways movement started to shift bullish from a change in executive management. It cracked upper bounds of where it should have been trading and it was in uncharted territory. It later market adjusted to a gap fill of $3.69. Here, I could have entered for a retest but it was above charted resistance so I stayed out. DANGER ZONE! Unfortunately for me, the price continued to more north.

Ever since that point, May 20th, each day had more and more hype and the price continued to move upward. Virtual reality, Polaris             card, Needham conference etc… after it broke $4.00. I knew I missed the train on this one and did not want to chase. By the end of May, I had to withhold and exert a significant amount of internal self-discipline not to chase, not to chase, do not fucking chase, because I had the feeling that as price was getting more and more overweight it will death drop, leaving many bag-holders caught (w/ pants down) making a hard decision to turn a trade into an investment. I kept asking myself where the fuck is market correction?!!

Death Drops:
June 1st - Death Drop
June 2nd - Death Drop

This second death drop is more significant because it is exhaustion gap filling to a new price action support level , (roughly $4.10ish) from previous weeks. Possibly a short collusion, from the same sentiment that I was feeling. Later, a short squeeze brings it backs to near highs again. Crap. I missed out on the MACD signal again.

Bollinger Bands:
This is where it gets interesting. Bollinger bands tell a lot when used correctly. When bollinger bands are used, it shows, how positively or negatively the trend is tracking; it is a volatility tracker. Most traders buy in the lower half of the bands and sell in the upper half of the bands. Simple, right? Not quite. Remember, it is a volatility indicator, so if it starts pinching , expect something major to happen.

Yellow Rectangles:
The trend in the 2nd rectangle , traded 2 standard deviations above the mean (when it rides the outer dark green lines), then broke through moving average line (pink). When that occurred, a huge wave a relief is upon me. The price is finally adjusting. Phew. I highlighted in the MACD the signals of the cross. External catalysts were the poor to neutral sentiment in the pricing of the Polaris             cards (later revised) and the release of Nvidia’s GeForce 1080s.
Comment: I mentioned MACD. Why is this significant? MACD represents the trend momentum. It confirms the direction of the price movement. In my chart, the signal line is orange and the MACD is blue. Moving Average - Convergence/Divergence. Say it like that. Most commonly, when the MACD, a moving average crosses a slower signal line it is converging, signaling, indicating a possible reversal in the current trend momentum. Exactly what I was looking for! Yesssss! Simply put, in my scenario, when ever my blue MACD line crosses the orange Signal line in an upwards fashion, I can expect the trend to be bullish again. Conversely, when it does the opposite, blue crossing orange line, downwards; bearish.
Comment: The Relevant & Fun Part: The Trade
As of now, the price is relatively stable around $4.40 - $4.50, there is enough data in this uncharted territory to start making future forecasts within a justifiable range.

First. Identify the pattern. Ascending Triangle! Wow pretty obvious right? Yellow triangle on the chart. In the bigger picture, now if you extrapolate that yellow triangle, tracking the hard dashed-blue line, do you see a larger Ascending Triangle Pattern stretching all the way back to May 11th? If you did, pat yourself on the back. Good job. I only noticed this a few days ago.

My hunch on this is that if this is to truly rally and run, it needs to crack the Multi-Top Resistance of $4.49 and later the HardTop Resistance of $4.59. Only then, will short sellers will buy to cover; squeezing the price higher. If catalyzed by positive news, this will only increase the fervor of buying more. In the bull limelight, I see an upside of 0.20 cents per share upside, optimistic at breaking $5 when more and more technology is released. I am strongly bullish that $5 will occur sometime in the near future, if not 2 weeks, I would not be surprised if under 2 months from now.
Comment: To add upon this bullish issue, notice the Stochastic RSI. I have adjusted the smoothing numbers to range better on a 2 month scale (28 periods) and fast(blue)/slow(orange), %K/%D, respectively. I did this intentionally to make the indicator less sensitive to the movements, yet more aggressive vertically to a indicate a signal to buy when oversold and sell when overbought. I realized upon writing this point, S/RSI is going to be more complicated to explain than originally anticipated, so I will leave it simple. Above 80, overbought; Below 20, oversold.

Lastly, I would like to close out in the contrarian view. If it fails to break resistance, and retreats. I feel it would be appropriate to average down and buy more. The swing trade/value investment side says in the longer run, as long as $AMD continues to innovate and remains competitive with $NVDA the risk is worth it.
Comment: The performance of the Radeon RX 480 is not only equal if not better than the GeForce 980, but it is also cheaper at half it’s price, coming in at $199. I own a 980, and I am quite jealous of 1440p AAA at 4GB.
Comment: Please leave a comment below if you agree or disagree, and/or would like to contribute further to the discussion. Send me a (+1) if this strategy has merit. Cheers.
Trade active: 800x @ $4.45
Comment: Analyst Sentiment:
6/16/2016 - Canaccord Genuity – Upgrade from Hold -> Buy, Price Target: $6.00
6/15/2016 - Morgan Stanley - Reiterated Rating – Sell, Price Target: $2.65
6/13/2016 - Jefferies Group - Reiterated Rating – Buy, Price Target: $4.50 -> $5.50
6/13/2016 - MKM Partners - Reiterated Rating – Buy, Price Target: $4.00 -> $5.00
5/26/2016 - Wells Fargo - Reiterated Rating – Outperform, Price Target: $4.25
Trade closed: target reached: @ $4.69 - There is a 500,000x Share Wall blocking $4.70. It looks like a solid 5k on Level II screen. I determined to stick with my initial trade plans to reached stated goals. I will re-enter on the dip-buy. I am aware that it can take off without me tomorrow to $4.70+ gap up day, but the risk on my small account is not worth the over-weighted-ness of the price action.
Comment: $0.24/share gains.
Comment: Image Test.
Trade closed: target reached: $4.90 Entry & $5.14 Exit @ 400x ~~ 0.24 per share gain.
I averaged up a while back and missed this tracking post.
Great chart idea's wish I knew how to +1 this.
Strategy for Friday, 06/17/16. If the rally does not continue to run, pre-market. I will catch the bounce and dip-buy the volatility, increase share strength to a long play to $5.00
Bold Testing.
Results for Friday, 06/17/16.
i feel deflation will happen right before, or after the elections. I still believe that the feds are propping the economy for the summer Olympics. I also agree w/ a few of your other comments. The benchmarks of the rx480 , so far, has showed that its better then nvda 980, and 2 rx480 can out preform the 1080. The cards should launch in June 29ish, which leaves AMD with a few weeks of growth before the quarters report.
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