This is my first publish here. I've traded for about 5 years; options for about 2 years. I am currently breaking even on a Call Credit Spread with a 6 month expiration I opened about a month ago today. The position is short based on simple historic patterns, and with Nvidia's release of the 3000 series GPU's, while AMD can only tout their now 2-year-old CPU technology and the lack of any strong GPUs - my opinion is that this is simply an over sold and over hyped stock. Based on stock performance, news and US election cycle, I will be looking to add to my bearish position if I am correct.
I'm a simple guy who doesn't use indicators. Just long term data and relevant news development. My positions are typically initially small, and a minimum of 3 months and no longer than 1 year. Hopefully someone finds this informative.
just hoping the oct 28 event would prove that its not overhype
tsahiv
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@nickyjsim, october 8th is also a landmark. Will announce zen 3, which is suoposed to set AMD as leader not only in cores count but also in ipc and frequency. Therr is alot of uncertainty surrounding GPUS 6000 SERIES ability to be a threat to NVIDIA but something tells me its gonna suprise us all, and the stock value might go upwards, atleast short term.
russochristine0801
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@tsahiv, would love to hear more about this. thanks for sharing!
BakiShirzadi
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Nice work, good luck
russochristine0801
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i like your transparency. this helped a lot.
Tschain
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Lurking new investors into the pit of historical numbers. It's everyones own choice, but that short selling cherry picking has been going on ever since the stock passed $10. A good short trader makes profit from AMD, but not with the historical landmarks and for sure not with a chart dating back to the pre internet times.
However, I'd suggest to apply company financial numbers and products to your short selling decisions. In my opinion the company is totally different since 2016. The new management has promised and has delivered.
Shorting with a goal of $15 is highly unrecommended.
Trade the volatility, not the unrealisitc ambitions.
Jay64bit
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@Tschain, I am NOT shorting with the goal of $15, so if I said something that made you interpret it that way, then allow me to clarify, and to be fair, I think there's a lot of assumptions on your end from the lack of reading through this thread - this is why I've been on this website for over 2 years now and this is my first post. People get very upset if someone else' opinion differs from theirs..
First, trading based on historical patterns isn't a new concept. A lot of people don't like it and a lot of people do. I happen to be someone who does.. I am also not short selling or buying naked puts, I have a small 6 month (about 1K) position with a Call Credit Spread, which if you're not familiar, can be edited or sold early in the event my interpretation is wrong (or sometimes sold early to acquire profit and reevaluate).
Second, The website gives you an option of Long, Neutral, or Short. I listed this as "short" because my bias in the longer term picture (1 year or so, perhaps) is generally bearish until we can find a consolidation range and support. I also mentioned in another reply that due to AMD's performance in more recent years, that I will be keeping an eye for a long term support range around 40-45 dollars. HOWEVER, if a solid support is not met in those ranges, then 15-20 dollars wouldn't be unrealistic buy range in the unforeseeable future. Being a "perma-bull" isn't a good idea.
I don't think anyone here has the power of foresight. The only thing I can do with my trading style is looking at the data. And that's the data.
Tschain
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@Jay64bit, I am not upset, I am an opposition to your opinion. And the opinions of stocks are always debateable. So let's continue.
There have been a handful avoiding the stock because of it's historic pattern. Looking into those matters and the reason for the strong downfall reveals a more clear picture of the reasons. As for right now AMD has the strongest Hardware setup of it's existing history. As to date only competitor in CPU's, Intel, is outrunned. And there is a lot of room for gains in the servermarket, which is almost completly dominated by Intel.
The financial results of the past 2 years have had great gains and, even though it's slightly declining, the quarterly gains are still high.
We are in a 6 year uptrend, with a bottom of the trend at $58 as for today.
Your numbers just puzzle me.
However, of course I wish everyone success with their tradings. After all isn't that why we all are here. I am just giving my 2 cents to help get a broader insight.
Jay64bit
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@Tschain, I'm curious though if much of the same sentiment was shared in the past when AMD shot above 40 dollars within a relatively short time-frame in 2000 and 2006.