AMD - Sideways or down to $50 / January 24th / Trend Resumption
0. Quick and dirty, just got back from a week at Mont Tremblant;
1. Sideways actions most likely in the $50.75 to $50.95 range;
2. Massive options expired today; major open interest;
3. Not a lot of benefit to the run to $52.50 when most options have to be rolled today;
4. Trend will resume until at least $52.50 before consolidation to the $51 range; if it consolidates at all;
5. INTC reports on January 23rd 2020;
6. They beat, raise, and signal cyclical bottom; we probably don't stop til $60 on this run;
7. They miss, and/or lower and signal cyclical bottom (why would they not?); we probably stop at $52.50 and consolidate, as people will believe AMD is responsible for INTC woes.
8. Not a hard one here folks.
9. We are not going below $50, unless the whole market crashes;
0. I have been saying how cheap puts are since day one;
1. You can sell $50 calls, and buys puts with a profit and collar your position for a week. January 24th expiration, as INTC report on the 23rd, and we report on the 28th;
The puts will be cheap on the 24th strike, the calls will be too; simple collar. You can go longer strike on the call, and short date on the put. Make money, and AMD stock doesn't move as you are collared. Just for a day;
2. Then we resume back to $60.
3. Ask yourself this? Have I been wrong yet? Lol? More like has the software been wrong...
- The AMD Whisperer
1. Sideways actions most likely in the $50.75 to $50.95 range;
2. Massive options expired today; major open interest;
3. Not a lot of benefit to the run to $52.50 when most options have to be rolled today;
4. Trend will resume until at least $52.50 before consolidation to the $51 range; if it consolidates at all;
5. INTC reports on January 23rd 2020;
6. They beat, raise, and signal cyclical bottom; we probably don't stop til $60 on this run;
7. They miss, and/or lower and signal cyclical bottom (why would they not?); we probably stop at $52.50 and consolidate, as people will believe AMD is responsible for INTC woes.
8. Not a hard one here folks.
9. We are not going below $50, unless the whole market crashes;
0. I have been saying how cheap puts are since day one;
1. You can sell $50 calls, and buys puts with a profit and collar your position for a week. January 24th expiration, as INTC report on the 23rd, and we report on the 28th;
The puts will be cheap on the 24th strike, the calls will be too; simple collar. You can go longer strike on the call, and short date on the put. Make money, and AMD stock doesn't move as you are collared. Just for a day;
2. Then we resume back to $60.
3. Ask yourself this? Have I been wrong yet? Lol? More like has the software been wrong...
- The AMD Whisperer
Comment:
We are going much higher. Bears better listen to Tepper And Druckenmiller, two of the smartest in the business, and coming out a month after we did, and way after we identified the 3300 to 3850 S&P Run and the 15 month bear market. Good for them, now trying to catch up to us. Or rather, maybe they already took positions, but nevertheless, we are going higher I believe.
Earnings will decide:
www.cnbc.com/2020/01...o-hit-new-highs.html
Earnings will decide:
www.cnbc.com/2020/01...o-hit-new-highs.html
Comment:
Why Equities are heading higher:
(Morgan Stanley)
And yet, as he’s quick to point out, "with $1.2 trillion in annualized balance sheet expansion from the Fed, ECB and BoJ ongoing, we think stocks will have a difficult time selling off much and think any correction in the S&P will be limited to 5% or less."
Rejoice, dip-buyers!
With that in mind, I'll leave you with a good passage from a note Cecchini published over at Ben Hunt’s Epsilon Theory back in November - I imagine readers here will sympathize with him, even as you revel in your gains:
The distortions QE has created (especially where QE produced negative rates) will be difficult to unwind. It is important to remember that the balance sheet expansion needed to execute on QE policies ultimately works through the suppression of term or risk premia. It is not through a quantity of money mechanism. Little firepower is left in most of the developed world for QE to have more impact, and we conclude more harm than good has already been done through negative rates policy. Overall, there are few levers left for central banks short of moving to purchases of equities (as in Japan). That leaves fiscal policy, which is notoriously inefficient and has empirically disappointed as a stimulant to growth when compared to good old fashioned productivity gains. These gains are harder to achieve when low rates keep zombie companies afloat. The seeds of aggressive rates policy and negative rates were sown in the late 1990s, and they have sprung into large dogmatic trees, which should soon be cut down.
So due to distortions, we simply can't go down. But, if the equity rally really has legs, I mean really has legs and continues nicely into February, and farther, it will be hard to HOLD GOLD, unless it manages to go nuts and head to $2000 an ounce.
IMPORTANT SENTIMENT STORY
Simple case in point. Drunkenmiller missed the boat on the September to December Run, they have a "well balanced portfolio" just like my WIFE:
seekingalpha.com/art...y-are-bulls-even-now
Now, my WIFE'S balanced portfolio, just like Druckenmiller, make 8 percent last year. My investment trust, made 400% last year. Get the picture.
So, my WIFE says to me today in the car back from vacation:
"I just logged into my portfolio, and it is up 6% last year. What is going on? I have X dollars in there, and that is all I get?"
See she has a "diversified managed portfolio", as it is over 5M, and she pays for management, like DruckenMiller.
A lot of the major institutions missed the boat. Retail investors missed the boat. Shorts got burned all the way up.
Therefore, you need to look at sentiment, and we get that from Occam's razor.
"All things being equal, the simplest explanation is the right one."
So the market keeps going up, everyone missed the boat, the market keeps going up, Fed and World banks have eased to give you FREE money to borrow and buy stocks and make money, and most of you have a portfolio that under-performed that year. Did your "managed" portfolio make 40%? No it didn't. So the simplest explanation is that equities are going higher. My WIFE wants me to call the asset manager on Monday, and tell him to dump all the crap defensive stuff that went up nicely in her portfolio, and allocate that, with all her CASH, into U.S. Equities. End of story. Occam is so right on this one, read about human psychology on this one:
"other things being equal, simpler explanations are generally better than more complex ones"
If you have a bit of time, read this about Occam's stuff:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
If equities, as Morgan Stanley says go up 20% this year, do you think Gold continues after a 50% run, and the end of recession fears.
(Morgan Stanley)
And yet, as he’s quick to point out, "with $1.2 trillion in annualized balance sheet expansion from the Fed, ECB and BoJ ongoing, we think stocks will have a difficult time selling off much and think any correction in the S&P will be limited to 5% or less."
Rejoice, dip-buyers!
With that in mind, I'll leave you with a good passage from a note Cecchini published over at Ben Hunt’s Epsilon Theory back in November - I imagine readers here will sympathize with him, even as you revel in your gains:
The distortions QE has created (especially where QE produced negative rates) will be difficult to unwind. It is important to remember that the balance sheet expansion needed to execute on QE policies ultimately works through the suppression of term or risk premia. It is not through a quantity of money mechanism. Little firepower is left in most of the developed world for QE to have more impact, and we conclude more harm than good has already been done through negative rates policy. Overall, there are few levers left for central banks short of moving to purchases of equities (as in Japan). That leaves fiscal policy, which is notoriously inefficient and has empirically disappointed as a stimulant to growth when compared to good old fashioned productivity gains. These gains are harder to achieve when low rates keep zombie companies afloat. The seeds of aggressive rates policy and negative rates were sown in the late 1990s, and they have sprung into large dogmatic trees, which should soon be cut down.
So due to distortions, we simply can't go down. But, if the equity rally really has legs, I mean really has legs and continues nicely into February, and farther, it will be hard to HOLD GOLD, unless it manages to go nuts and head to $2000 an ounce.
IMPORTANT SENTIMENT STORY
Simple case in point. Drunkenmiller missed the boat on the September to December Run, they have a "well balanced portfolio" just like my WIFE:
seekingalpha.com/art...y-are-bulls-even-now
Now, my WIFE'S balanced portfolio, just like Druckenmiller, make 8 percent last year. My investment trust, made 400% last year. Get the picture.
So, my WIFE says to me today in the car back from vacation:
"I just logged into my portfolio, and it is up 6% last year. What is going on? I have X dollars in there, and that is all I get?"
See she has a "diversified managed portfolio", as it is over 5M, and she pays for management, like DruckenMiller.
A lot of the major institutions missed the boat. Retail investors missed the boat. Shorts got burned all the way up.
Therefore, you need to look at sentiment, and we get that from Occam's razor.
"All things being equal, the simplest explanation is the right one."
So the market keeps going up, everyone missed the boat, the market keeps going up, Fed and World banks have eased to give you FREE money to borrow and buy stocks and make money, and most of you have a portfolio that under-performed that year. Did your "managed" portfolio make 40%? No it didn't. So the simplest explanation is that equities are going higher. My WIFE wants me to call the asset manager on Monday, and tell him to dump all the crap defensive stuff that went up nicely in her portfolio, and allocate that, with all her CASH, into U.S. Equities. End of story. Occam is so right on this one, read about human psychology on this one:
"other things being equal, simpler explanations are generally better than more complex ones"
If you have a bit of time, read this about Occam's stuff:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
If equities, as Morgan Stanley says go up 20% this year, do you think Gold continues after a 50% run, and the end of recession fears.
Comment:
You time the change in perception, you time the market. This is one of the key features of our "Neural Network". It tries to figure out what the masses think, and are about to do in the future, after they question their ideas and thesis, and eventually toss those out and move to the contrarian position, that was so obvious in the first place, so you just didn't want to accept it.
Donald Trump started a Bear Market with a Tweet in May of 2018. End of Story. That Bear Market ended September 2019. That is 16 months, the average time for a recent cyclical bear market:
"How long to bear markets last and how deep do they go? On average, bear markets have lasted 14 months in the period since World War II, while market corrections have lasted an average of five months. The S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33 percent during bear markets in that time."
So you see, you need to challenge the mass perception, which in this case is wrong. All things being equal are we at the end of a nine year run, and the 3 month drop was a correction from October to December of last year? With January effect being the dead cat bounce? Come on, all things being equal, look at the charts, look at the charts, we were in a Bear Market since that darn Tweet in May of 2018. End of story.
So the market can stay irrational, longer than any person can stay solvent. Don't fight the trend on AMD.
The reality is that the Bears perspective right now is that this is either a "blow off" top of a nine year Bull Market, or Bears believe this is a Bear Market Rally, like the one leading up to the October 2018 Crash (which they think was a bull market correction). The Bears think that was a correction in a Bull Market, that was a Bear Market Rally in the Middle of a Bear Market. Now in a week or two when the market can't stop going up (maybe 4 weeks), might even be the middle of February, Bears have taken their last stand at 3300 on the S&P:
Forbes Wrong:
www.forbes.com/sites...w-its-a-bear-market/
You are being fed this nonsense by the media, and now Drunkenmiller and Tepper are billionaires and calling CNBC to say time to go LONG. Wow.
Donald Trump started a Bear Market with a Tweet in May of 2018. End of Story. That Bear Market ended September 2019. That is 16 months, the average time for a recent cyclical bear market:
"How long to bear markets last and how deep do they go? On average, bear markets have lasted 14 months in the period since World War II, while market corrections have lasted an average of five months. The S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33 percent during bear markets in that time."
So you see, you need to challenge the mass perception, which in this case is wrong. All things being equal are we at the end of a nine year run, and the 3 month drop was a correction from October to December of last year? With January effect being the dead cat bounce? Come on, all things being equal, look at the charts, look at the charts, we were in a Bear Market since that darn Tweet in May of 2018. End of story.
So the market can stay irrational, longer than any person can stay solvent. Don't fight the trend on AMD.
The reality is that the Bears perspective right now is that this is either a "blow off" top of a nine year Bull Market, or Bears believe this is a Bear Market Rally, like the one leading up to the October 2018 Crash (which they think was a bull market correction). The Bears think that was a correction in a Bull Market, that was a Bear Market Rally in the Middle of a Bear Market. Now in a week or two when the market can't stop going up (maybe 4 weeks), might even be the middle of February, Bears have taken their last stand at 3300 on the S&P:
Forbes Wrong:
www.forbes.com/sites...w-its-a-bear-market/
You are being fed this nonsense by the media, and now Drunkenmiller and Tepper are billionaires and calling CNBC to say time to go LONG. Wow.
Comment:
As they said on CNBC yesterday:
"If don't care if you think the market is going to crash tomorrow, if Drukenmiller calls the show and says they are LONG U.S. equities, and staying that way without wavering for the immediate term future (whatever that means), you better sit up and take notice."
End of Story.
Don't fight the tape.
Step back 300 feet, look around, everything bad, all bad, recession fears, global feltdown, Middle East meltdown, CNBC had a "Wall of Worry" that they showcased for a like a year. That was all part of a Bear Market folks. The sentiment is so bad, that every possible negative outcome has been priced in by the market. We are priced for death. Bubble highs, we are only back to where we were 20 years ago on the market with most of the high flyers. And now they are REAL companies, with earnings, growth, cash, and serious customers. Dot-com bubble my butt, challenge the perception.
LAST QUOTE:
"The easy money is made following the trend, the serious money is made spotting the obvious that nobody has seen yet, and doing something about it now." - Some CNBC Host.
"If don't care if you think the market is going to crash tomorrow, if Drukenmiller calls the show and says they are LONG U.S. equities, and staying that way without wavering for the immediate term future (whatever that means), you better sit up and take notice."
End of Story.
Don't fight the tape.
Step back 300 feet, look around, everything bad, all bad, recession fears, global feltdown, Middle East meltdown, CNBC had a "Wall of Worry" that they showcased for a like a year. That was all part of a Bear Market folks. The sentiment is so bad, that every possible negative outcome has been priced in by the market. We are priced for death. Bubble highs, we are only back to where we were 20 years ago on the market with most of the high flyers. And now they are REAL companies, with earnings, growth, cash, and serious customers. Dot-com bubble my butt, challenge the perception.
LAST QUOTE:
"The easy money is made following the trend, the serious money is made spotting the obvious that nobody has seen yet, and doing something about it now." - Some CNBC Host.
Comment:
And listen here, we are releasing our software this year. You will have the same power as the worlds greatest institutions. The power of AI, and a Neural Network you can setup for any and all stocks. We will be offering a free product, the best trading solution you have ever seen, free, did I say free. We have a bunch of groups on the Internet showing our ideas and building a following:
Every person who reads any of the AMD posts and follows us, we are the "AMD Whisperers", and the Market in General. We beat Drunkenmiller and Tepper to the punch, look at our 3300 to 3850 idea, we were on that back in September, but obviously you don't get to front run everything. So now you can. Instead of listening to me, you can use Billion Dollar Software, right on your desktop, no string attached. The only catch is that it will be a subscription model, and it will have tier pricing. We are a Trust, but also connected and funded by Google. The client is very powerful, but the real heavy lifting is done in the Google Cloud, using AI, and many other advanced GCP features that we have been funded to put together over the past 2 years. This is a large full-time effort. Everyone who follows me, will get a 1 year free subscription at the highest tier. I will post the feature list later, and you will see that all the silicon valley AI Trading startups, don't have a thing on us. They are all vapourware. Our feature list will bring the house down. Most likely we will never make it public. So this will be the opportunity to get software and tools to help you trade from a starting millennial, the day trader, the swing trader, the long term investor, the funds flow watcher, the re-balancing trader, the retiree with no appetite for risk, and a new interface like you have never seen before. Natural Language Processing. You talk to our product, and GCP (Google Cloud Platform) takes care of figuring out what you want. I can't expand much right now, but the feature list alone and a video demo, would have you selling your house and using this product to invest for today and the future. This product catches Chaos Trades, market downturns, next day moves, breakouts, you name it. Every technical analysis strategy ever devised in real time and AI taking care of everything in the Google Cloud, with compute power like you haven't seen before. We want to be the first to have the Quantum Branch for Compute when it comes. How about a portfolio that is managed by AI, grabs all the market upside, and none of the downside? A real time sentiment engine based on GCP, that analyzes news in real-time like the "algos" on CNBC that tank the market and send on on unstoppable rally days? Wants to know when and where, and just have a day job and watch you portfolio just go up? We turned this on 2 years ago, with $7500 as a test, there is $245000K in that account. We will be publishing verified automated trade records that are audited by a world class accounting firm. End of Story. You will be able to complete with Wall Street once again. Not since Flash Boys by Michael Lewis, has something like this happened.
So if you read this, do yourself a favour, and hit the like button, and also do yourself a favour and follow us. Otherwise you WILL be paying for the software.
- The AMD Whisper Team
Every person who reads any of the AMD posts and follows us, we are the "AMD Whisperers", and the Market in General. We beat Drunkenmiller and Tepper to the punch, look at our 3300 to 3850 idea, we were on that back in September, but obviously you don't get to front run everything. So now you can. Instead of listening to me, you can use Billion Dollar Software, right on your desktop, no string attached. The only catch is that it will be a subscription model, and it will have tier pricing. We are a Trust, but also connected and funded by Google. The client is very powerful, but the real heavy lifting is done in the Google Cloud, using AI, and many other advanced GCP features that we have been funded to put together over the past 2 years. This is a large full-time effort. Everyone who follows me, will get a 1 year free subscription at the highest tier. I will post the feature list later, and you will see that all the silicon valley AI Trading startups, don't have a thing on us. They are all vapourware. Our feature list will bring the house down. Most likely we will never make it public. So this will be the opportunity to get software and tools to help you trade from a starting millennial, the day trader, the swing trader, the long term investor, the funds flow watcher, the re-balancing trader, the retiree with no appetite for risk, and a new interface like you have never seen before. Natural Language Processing. You talk to our product, and GCP (Google Cloud Platform) takes care of figuring out what you want. I can't expand much right now, but the feature list alone and a video demo, would have you selling your house and using this product to invest for today and the future. This product catches Chaos Trades, market downturns, next day moves, breakouts, you name it. Every technical analysis strategy ever devised in real time and AI taking care of everything in the Google Cloud, with compute power like you haven't seen before. We want to be the first to have the Quantum Branch for Compute when it comes. How about a portfolio that is managed by AI, grabs all the market upside, and none of the downside? A real time sentiment engine based on GCP, that analyzes news in real-time like the "algos" on CNBC that tank the market and send on on unstoppable rally days? Wants to know when and where, and just have a day job and watch you portfolio just go up? We turned this on 2 years ago, with $7500 as a test, there is $245000K in that account. We will be publishing verified automated trade records that are audited by a world class accounting firm. End of Story. You will be able to complete with Wall Street once again. Not since Flash Boys by Michael Lewis, has something like this happened.
So if you read this, do yourself a favour, and hit the like button, and also do yourself a favour and follow us. Otherwise you WILL be paying for the software.
- The AMD Whisper Team
Comment:
Oh and we will have the web site up soon, and we will be gone. No more AMD Whisperer Team here folks. As soon as our NDA with Google expires, we go live on our site. Then we have GCP on a corporate level, and 5 years of Google Funding, so we are in great shape. You have a few more months, but our analysis and such is going to get extremely technical into February and March. So I hope you like advanced Calculus and such as well as sentiment.
Cheers
Cheers
Comment:
And and just so we are very clear, I use TradingView to "kind of" replicate the exactly what comes from our product. All calls, moves, and such, including a lot of the narrative that I publish comes from the product. It thinks folks. It knows how you trade as time passes. It can watch you if you are a day trader, or swing trader, and it will tell you what to change, what not to do, and actually question your every move and strategy if you like. I can't give too much more. It actually writes reports for you. Will day to day analysis and incorporates stories and such. The 5600XT Bios change, and NVDA 2060 re-pricing came out a week ago in our engine. When did you see the story? Yesterday? Trying to get GOOG to up the date on the NDA for at least the web-site and feature list so you can see what the institutions are doing and what they have. GOOG is moving into financial folks, and we are a major part of that. They issues right now with Health Care, and need to commoditize maps, and quantum, and a bunch of stuff, but we help with that too. Anyway, talk later. If we can get the NDA changed we can get this out in a few weeks.
Comment:
Oh, and I might have to move to a new account, and have everything checked before publication here once the NDA is lifted, not sure. I did this on my own, and haven't got fired yet lol. I have taken a lot of heat, and am borderline on the NDA, but have a law degree as well, as advanced physics, mathematics, computer science, chaos theory, finance, and psychology. Whatever, I see what is going on here, and I want the average investor to have a level playing field. That was and always is my goal, and I will risk it all to do it. I love the game, but it is rigged against you, and I am very disillusioned at this point, and to be honest I know a lot of great people who are broken and battered from the crashed in 00 and 08. They are divorced, separated, unemployed, plagued by drug and alcohol problems, depression, mental disorder, you name it. Broken, by the constant cycle of Bubble and Bust, and the Conspiracy to Transfer wealth over and over again from the little guy to the 1 percent. Getting really sick and tired of it. Spend a week on vacay with a young 18 year old girl and my daughter and wife, and this young girl, whose family is broken and destroyed beyond repair due to the 2006 to 2008 crash, has taken her to the edge too. I saw these crashes. I watched them. I profited up and down. It is not fair as the institutions did. They just gave you whatever percentage the "market made" in a bunch of lying statements. They do what they want with your "managed" money. We called the 00 and 08 bubble and bust, like Tepper or Drunkenmiller did.
We will put the power of the institutions in the hands of the little guy for free, or as little as possible.
We will level the playing field.
We will not be bought by Morgan Stanley and go gently into any goodnight.
You will all benefit.
Have a good weekend
- The AMD Whisperer Team
We will put the power of the institutions in the hands of the little guy for free, or as little as possible.
We will level the playing field.
We will not be bought by Morgan Stanley and go gently into any goodnight.
You will all benefit.
Have a good weekend
- The AMD Whisperer Team
Comment:
Quote from Morgan Stanley Today:
“Whether one wants to call it QE or not, we believe this excess liquidity has suppressed volatility to extremely low levels,” Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. “A liquidity driven bull market typically overshoots fair value.”
“Whether one wants to call it QE or not, we believe this excess liquidity has suppressed volatility to extremely low levels,” Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. “A liquidity driven bull market typically overshoots fair value.”
Comment:
Fed is expanding the balance sheet until at least Mid February...
Comment:
And I will be here all week. This is the most important week in financial history in a long time. Fortunes will be won and lost and it all starts this week. I don't show a lot of emotion, I have Asperger syndrome, but I am quite focused and very high functioning. I will give you the play by play if you are interested. I am quite confident in the outcome, but who knows. This is the greatest game on earth. You can probably turn off notifications if I bother you, but I will post on action, price, and news events live starting Tuesday morning. Hopefully it will be smooth sailing by Thursday of next week. Otherwise, I guess I will have to redistribute some of my hedge proceeds to the masses. I will post all the data that comes back live from our software. Only important and key points. Cheers.
seekingalpha.com/art...y-are-bulls-even-now
seekingalpha.com/art...ne-problem-for-bears
Earnings will determine the direction. I suggest you decide which side you are on, and take positions before January 24th, as the rest of the world will be ready to hit the buy or sell button after INTC possibly.
We all know which side we are on. The long side.