Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) Bearish Setup: Simple Signals

May 5

Simple signals

I just highlighted very clearly the rise from October 2025 through April 2026. All the signals we are about to review are related to this move in some way. To start, October 2025 produced really high volume yet the session closed red. The highest volume since May 2022. This is the first warning signal.

The last week of April produced a new all-time (ath) high with the session closing as a hammer. Trading volume was really low compared to October 2025. The hammer can anticipate a reversal, coupled with the lower volume and a weekly session closing below the previous week open, the week of the ath, and you have a bearish confirmation.

Cautious traders would wait for another week of red before going short. More younger traders, prone to risk taking; we go short right away and for obvious reasons. Waiting for confirmation is so dated, so 1980's that we do not enjoy it at all. Just take the plunge.

Classic signals (indicators)

Now let's review the classic indicators-oscillators:

RSI:

This is why I highlighted the last rise very strongly. Notice the huge bearish divergence with the RSI. A lower low is present on this indicator. This being the weekly timeframe, this a hyper-strong signal, a bearish signal that supports everything else I'll be showing here that points to a crash on AMD.

MACD (weekly):

The MACD is trading at a new all-time high. Each time the MACD goes really high a correction follows. The best and most recent examples are March 2024 and November 2025. In both instances the MACD reached a major high and AMD went into correction mode for months.

As you can see from November 2025, the MACD signal comes a bit late, but it signals that a top is in.

MACD (daily):

The daily MACD is already showing some bearish signals. The histogram has been dropping for days and a peak is already in. This signal is not very strong but it reinforces everything else. When all is taken together, we have a strong case for a major correction or bearish cycle on AMD. Let's continue.

STOCH (weekly):

The stochastic becomes overbought, there is a bearish cross and then it starts to drop. There is a scenario where reaching overbought can be a bullish signal, it depends on the context though. No such context is present here.

Subtle signals

I saw an announcement on Binance that says they are adding AMDUSDT for trading. This only alerted me that a crash is coming next. Anything they add is always before a crash. Pluto is going retrograde on the 6th and that's the same date they will make this available for trading. Beginners will buy in bulk, experts and professional will be playing the big short.

Namaste.

5 days ago

Trade active

All bearish signals remain intact. The bullish move is now technically "over-extended."

A parabolic rise tends to end with a massive crash. Consider Gold (XAUUSD) as a recent example. Beware. This is the dangerous zone. Once the positive news momentum dries out, the crash comes.



Namaste.

3 days ago

Trade closed: stop reached

While these indicators and signals work amazingly well on Crypto, they don't see to work with stocks.

I am inexperienced with how these stocks behave and tend to get it wrong most (all) of the time. I will limit my analysis to the Cryptocurrency market. Somehow there I tend to produce better results.

This is a failed TA and short.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.

yesterday

Note

You can find an update below, the short is still on.