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IvanLabrie
Mar 2, 2017 3:46 PM

AMD: Short after a disappointing Ryzen release Short

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.NASDAQ

Description

AMD's chip is weaker than INTC's one in many regards, although an improvement compared to previous chips. I'd still like to own one, but the hype implied it'd beat INTC's offerings, which it didn't. Valuation and the fundamental factors at play imply we can short with comfort.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.

Comment

Closing below 13.13 will be good for shorts. Keep an eye on it.

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Also, from entry, price only went 0.14 against me, then instantly down 1.40 points. This is a 10:1 realized risk/reward ratio. It means the timing for shorting was almost perfect. Also, it could mean it went too well, too fast, so, stay vigilant. If you're caught feeling too smart and 'like a baws' it might mean it's about to turn against your position.

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Daily close favors continuation, holding.

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Anyone in the short with me?

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Same as NVDA, a triangle...
Comments
mari84403
Weaker? Based on what? Not shown in this "analysis".
I call this "analysis" a shorting manipulation.
IvanLabrie
@mari84403, you can read detailed reviews. It's an improvement for AMD, but still not better than INTC's chips performance wise.
mari84403
@IvanLabrie, I read several of them, but no mention it's weaker than INTC. Show the one you wrote about and the one you based your analysis on, that the " hype implied it'd beat INTC's offerings, which it didn't."
CoffeeHero
In response to 'a shorting manipulation': Do you guys really think IvanLabrie can singlehandedly move the stock down by his short advice?
Secondly, be honest. There was plenty of media extravaganza on how AMD delivered a CPU more powerful and way cheaper than anything Intel has to offer. Now, after multiple reviews, not only the one referred below, it appears that AMD delivered a decent CPU, but isn't smacking down Intel of its throne. Ryzen 3 and 5 will arrive later this year, and expectations might be a bit lower because of these reviews. This can bring the stock down a little. Using this slightly negative sentiment, and the over-valuation and recent steep rally, it's not strange to advice shorting AMD now.
Or do you think AMD will still move up from this level?
IvanLabrie
@lencanoot, Exactly...not a crazy idea haha.
mari84403
forbes.com/sites/patrickmoorhead/2017/03/02/amd-ryzen-desktop-amd-said-it-would-be-awesome-and-it-is/4/

"After nearly a decade, AMD is competitive again in the premium desktop CPU market. Ryzen 7 1080X desktop processor doesn't sweep every benchmark and are still behind in single-threaded performance and low res, low quality gaming, but when it comes to multi-threaded performance per dollar and higher quality gaming and gaming while streaming, AMD does great. AMD accomplished all this in part with a new architecture called Zen which delivers a measured 50% instructions per clock improvement combined with a competitive frequency at a competitive power draw."
IvanLabrie
@mari84403, I understand, but still valuation is horrific here, due to fundamentals, and it's still not literally faster or equal to INTC.
mari84403
@IvanLabrie, still not enough reasoning for short position. You were right - well, at the time of posting was AMD already going down. Thus, question, if this was prediction or just riding the wave. But did not provide enough basis to back your decision.

Thus, you are mistakenly naming your post - again, Ryzen release was not a dissapoinment.
yoshiyoshi
I think it is safe to call it a manipulation. It would not take too long for the market to realize that. I would be careful with short, and even re-long soon. Good luck
IvanLabrie
@yoshiyoshi, did you look at the valuation of the company? Looking at technical charts, or just going by feel or if you like a company won't do.
The short is in profit by the way. I don't think I have enough followers to manipulate AMD. If I were a manipulator I'd be trading penny stocks.
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