QuantitativeExhaustion
Short

AMD Earnings and Ascending Triangle Chart Pattern

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I've been following AMD             for many months. AMDs young CEO             Rory Read has certainly turned the company around. Rory quickly moved AMD's long time focus from competing with Intel             and the CPU/APU market, to a narrow focus on video graphic performance. AMD             is staying focused on improving video graphic cards, making them much more efficient than it's largest competitor NVidia             . Bitcoin miners, who look for the most efficient GPU cards, use AMD             over NVidia             . Bitcoin miners realized that AMD             GPU's use about 80% less power than Nvidia             GPUs. With an AMD             GPU , a Bitcoin miner can mine 24/7 and pay much less on electricity.


AMD             is also looking to improve APU's which are the combination of GPU's and CPU's. APU's size and power usage is very important for companies like Google             , Apple             , Samsung that make our smartphones and tablets. For the next generation smartphones and tablets to perform at maximum capabilities there going to need better more efficient APU cards. AMD             biggest competitor in the APU market is Intel             . AMD             new Kaveri APU, released a few days ago, is 30% cheaper, performs better and is more efficient than Intel's best APU. This is why I believe AMD             will be getting a big deal from one of the top smartphone-tablet makers later this year. Unless we see signs of a worsening economy later this year, I will make a large bet that AMD             stock takes off.


Current Chart Pattern - Ascending Triangle aka Fous Revival Pattern

What I'm looking for here is a previous bearish trend reversing. For now AMD             chart is shaping an ascending triangle . However, the ascending triangle has not met all the required points (pt) to be classified an ascending triangle stock pattern. For this pattern to work, we need to see one more price break to meet with the ascending support line (drawn in black). Today's earnings will play a crucial role in determining if or not we are seeing a future ascending triangle . I posted PT3 Tgt             1 at around $3.40 for my target after earnings are reported this evening. If earnings are really terrible we could even break below PT3 and touch TGT             2 before resuming a flat to bullish trend . TGT             3 was mentioned, however I do not expect a 50% price breakdown, which would disrupt all bullish momentum from late 2012. Shortly after earnings are reported I expect AMD             to resume a bullish trend , the last push before a serious breakout going into second quarter earnings and a possible announcement of a deal with Apple             , Google             , Samsung, LG             or any other major smartphone/tablet maker.

Options

AMD             Earnings Options Strategy - Strangle -- BUY yourself some insurance -- OTM Long Call and OTM Long Put contracts

There are many short term indicators now suggesting a strong buy. Longer term indicators such as 3h+ are suggesting a bearish move. Last week when Intel             reported it took AMD             off track and down -7% from its peak, set just a few days prior. This could mean that the bearish divergences that we saw played out. With earnings only a few hours from now, I've decided to take my strategy with somewhat less risk and buy both OTM long calls and OTM puts.


* 2nd Quarter Breakout should read 1st Quarter Breakout
Looking forward to this one.
+3 Reply
Lot of people are. Chart set up is favorably bearish, but it's earnings, you never know.
+5 Reply
Yes, AMD works on GPU's and crypt mining experts use their equipment to harvest and create digital currency. Energy companies reap rewards while crypto currency miners use AMD products to harvest / create the litecoin and bitcoins. In essence a match made in heavan.... until countries get involved regulating their usage.
+3 Reply
Gamers chose AMD, Bitcoin Miners chose AMD and Graphic Artist chose AMD

It's only a matter of time before the masses start using AMD
+5 Reply
After looking over option prices (extreme high implied volatility) and chart indications, I've decided not to play AMD. There are plenty of trades everyday this is not one I'd like to take at this time.
+5 Reply
I agree on the options costing to much
+3 Reply
Yeah, well it turned out to be a decent payout. Looks like a 120% Gain
+5 Reply
Them Options are getting cheaper. Thinking IV can break 10 eventually
+1 Reply
G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
2017 AMD 4.00 c
AMD170120C00004000 last 0.50 bid 0.45 ask .50
in another post we discussed AMD ,and memisters -intel and HPQ- ,
- in the past month or 2 -
we noted that this option was .55 - and a week later it was .75 -
Reply
Jan. 2017 4.00 is the safe bet. However, 2016 April or June 3.00/3.50 might be the best reward with added risk. Just have to wait for them to become available.
+1 Reply
G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
being as they are late in execution a lot of times , maybe a longer time frame is better ,
in the other discussion we wanted 2017 april 4. calls instead of any thing earlier ..
+1 Reply
What about AMD SkyBridge pin-compatible 64-bit x86 ARM Based Server SoC ? This was supposed to be announced in 2015, and we got the news from Lisa Su this summer. So the full on attack Intel vs ARMH and AMD is on. Will start seeing more and more big names sign on with AMD/ARMH and leave Intel.
+1 Reply
G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
hope- fully AMD learned and we will not go through the AM motherboard fiasco where they came out with a dif pin out every year and a half , AM , AM2 , AM3 , AM3 +
I loved the super 7 motherbds back in the 90's , intel or AMd chips in differant veriaties could be swapped through the same mother board . Easy up grade , replace CPU , done ,
+1 Reply
Don't worry about that, Jim Keller has reminded everyone at AMD about the past miss dealings, and was assured no more crooks running AMD management.

Well back to your original statement. Sure, Jan. 2017 are a much safer play. However, wouldn't you rather shave 6-8 months and get the same option for 1/3 to 1/2 the price or 1.00/1.50 less strike (OTM Calls) same price. If buying next summer/fall, April 2016 in my view would still be safe.

We still are a long way off before taking our bets/investments. If I can get AMD Jan 2017 3.00 Calls for less than a quarter, I'd take some of that action, but I'd still load up on dates closer to second quarter 2016.
+2 Reply
G13Man QuantitativeExhaustion
looking forward to AMD , these old comps are only getting older , and i need a new one ,
+1 Reply
i stopped playing the earnings games , cost me big time in 2011 but good earnings report and the stocks went down , = crazy
+3 Reply
That happened here. They beat and CEO spoke about 1st quarter revs not coming in-line. Well that could be an easy way to set up a short squeeze later this year. That's probably what he's trying to do.
+5 Reply
Do you think that, DOUBLE TOP will work and hit ur 2nd target 2.25?
+3 Reply
I'm not the individual that posted a double top for AMD.
+5 Reply
Nice hit and bounce off the ascending line. Looks strong
+4 Reply
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
This failed. That ascending support break was key.
+1 Reply
I'm really looking forward to this - -'
+3 Reply
Keep your powder ready. I'm sure the blast off will happen this year. Not so sure this explosive move will come from earnings alone. Most likely an announcement of some kind of deal(s) with Microsoft, LG, Samsung, Blackberry, Google.
+5 Reply
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
should have taken that ascending support break more serious. Didn't make a bet. After CEO announced 18 month before we see anything substantial it was all over.
+1 Reply
Nice Call here!
+2 Reply
4th generation A-Series APU with 12 Compute Cores (4CPU + 8 GPU) unlocks the APU potential with Heterogeneous System Architecture (HSA) features, and boasts powerful AMD Radeon(TM) R7 Series graphics for outstanding performance across applications. (1, 2) Combined with AMD's acclaimed Mantle API, the AMD A10-7800 APU can enable accelerated performance across select AMD Gaming Evolved partner titles.(3)

AMD Looking to GO with APPLE and GOOGLE next YEAR!
+3 Reply
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