I've been following AMD for many months. AMDs young CEO Rory Read has certainly turned the company around. Rory quickly moved AMD's long time focus from competing with Intel and the CPU/APU market, to a narrow focus on video graphic performance. AMD is staying focused on improving video graphic cards, making them much more efficient than it's largest competitor NVidia. Bitcoin miners, who look for the most efficient GPU cards, use AMD over NVidia. Bitcoin miners realized that AMD GPU's use about 80% less power than Nvidia GPUs. With an AMD GPU , a Bitcoin miner can mine 24/7 and pay much less on electricity.
AMD is also looking to improve APU's which are the combination of GPU's and CPU's. APU's size and power usage is very important for companies like Google, Apple, Samsung that make our smartphones and tablets. For the next generation smartphones and tablets to perform at maximum capabilities there going to need better more efficient APU cards. AMD biggest competitor in the APU market is Intel. AMD new Kaveri APU, released a few days ago, is 30% cheaper, performs better and is more efficient than Intel's best APU. This is why I believe AMD will be getting a big deal from one of the top smartphone-tablet makers later this year. Unless we see signs of a worsening economy later this year, I will make a large bet that AMD stock takes off.
Current Chart Pattern - Ascending Triangle aka Fous Revival Pattern
What I'm looking for here is a previous bearish trend reversing. For now AMD chart is shaping an ascending triangle. However, the ascending triangle has not met all the required points (pt) to be classified an ascending triangle stock pattern. For this pattern to work, we need to see one more price break to meet with the ascending support line (drawn in black). Today's earnings will play a crucial role in determining if or not we are seeing a future ascending triangle. I posted PT3 Tgt 1 at around $3.40 for my target after earnings are reported this evening. If earnings are really terrible we could even break below PT3 and touch TGT 2 before resuming a flat to bullish trend. TGT 3 was mentioned, however I do not expect a 50% price breakdown, which would disrupt all bullish momentum from late 2012. Shortly after earnings are reported I expect AMD to resume a bullish trend, the last push before a serious breakout going into second quarter earnings and a possible announcement of a deal with Apple, Google, Samsung, LG or any other major smartphone/tablet maker.
Options
AMD Earnings Options Strategy - Strangle -- BUY yourself some insurance -- OTM Long Call and OTM Long Put contracts
There are many short term indicators now suggesting a strong buy. Longer term indicators such as 3h+ are suggesting a bearish move. Last week when Intel reported it took AMD off track and down -7% from its peak, set just a few days prior. This could mean that the bearish divergences that we saw played out. With earnings only a few hours from now, I've decided to take my strategy with somewhat less risk and buy both OTM long calls and OTM puts.
* 2nd Quarter Breakout should read 1st Quarter Breakout
Comments
QuantitativeExhaustion
⋅
After looking over option prices (extreme high implied volatility) and chart indications, I've decided not to play AMD. There are plenty of trades everyday this is not one I'd like to take at this time.
QuantitativeExhaustion
⋅
should have taken that ascending support break more serious. Didn't make a bet. After CEO announced 18 month before we see anything substantial it was all over.
QuantitativeExhaustion
⋅
This failed. That ascending support break was key.
QuantitativeExhaustion
⋅
Nice hit and bounce off the ascending line. Looks strong
QuantitativeExhaustion
⋅
4th generation A-Series APU with 12 Compute Cores (4CPU + 8 GPU) unlocks the APU potential with Heterogeneous System Architecture (HSA) features, and boasts powerful AMD Radeon(TM) R7 Series graphics for outstanding performance across applications. (1, 2) Combined with AMD's acclaimed Mantle API, the AMD A10-7800 APU can enable accelerated performance across select AMD Gaming Evolved partner titles.(3)
AMD Looking to GO with APPLE and GOOGLE next YEAR!
Gizmosis350k
⋅
I'm really looking forward to this - -'
QuantitativeExhaustion
⋅
Keep your powder ready. I'm sure the blast off will happen this year. Not so sure this explosive move will come from earnings alone. Most likely an announcement of some kind of deal(s) with Microsoft, LG, Samsung, Blackberry, Google.