NaughtyPines

THE WEEK AHEAD: AMD, TWTR, FB EARNINGS; SLV, GDX, GDXJ; EWW

NASDAQ:AMD   Advanced Micro Devices Inc
EARNINGS:

There are a ton of earnings coming out next week, with the most options liquid plays to be had in AMD (44/71), TWTR (77/80), and FB (59/50).

Pictured here is a delta neutral short strangle in AMD in the June cycle (54 days). Camped out around the 20 delta strikes, it paid 3.12 as of Friday close (5.6% as a function of share price) with break evens at 42.88/73.12. Go defined risk with a five-wide iron condor in the same cycle -- the 42/47/70/75, and you'll get paid 1.48, 29.6% return on capital at max, 14.8% at 50%.

A TWTR June 19th 24/36 short strangle paid 1.83 (6.4% as a function of share price) as of the Friday close; the FB June 19th 165/220, 7.07 (3.7% as a function of share price). Consequently, if you're looking for "buck bang" as a function of share price, your best best is going with the TWTR play, with its higher 30-day.


EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK:

SLV (83/51)
GDXJ (72/79)
GDX (64/63)
EWW (61/60)
XLU (60/ 40 )
EWZ (57/72)
XLE (55/66)
SMH (46/46)
XOP (42/81)
USO (33/192)

USO is going to be undergoing a 1:8 reverse split after the close of markets on April 28th, so you may want to steer clear of entering an options play before then and/or close out any options plays you've got on here to avoid being stuck with nonstandards post-split. As if it wasn't apparent, the juice is in precious metals/miners ( SLV , GDX / GDXJ ) and oil-related exchange-traded funds ( XOP , XLE , USO), with some secondary squeezings to be had out of Mexico ( EWW ), Brazil ( EWZ ), and semicons ( SMH ).

With respect to EWW and EWZ , I considered each for a potential IRA trade, since both pay dividends, although they're only twice a year and somewhat "uneven." ( EWW yield shows as 4.93%; EWZ as 5.44%). The EWW June 19th 22 was paying .78 as of Friday close (3.7% return on capital at max), the EWZ June 19th 18, .96 (5.6% return on capital at max), so may consider doing one or the other as a potential aquisitional play.


BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK:

TQQQ (60/111)
IWM (56/45)
EEM (46/39)
QQQ (43/36)
SPY (39/35)


FUTURES WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK:

/ NG (98/95)
/SI (83/500
/RTY (56/55
/NQ (43/36)
/ ZC (43/36)
/ES (39/36)
/ CL (33/948)


VIX / VIX DERIVATIVES:

VIX finished the week at 35.93, well in "high volatility" territory. However, the May and June contracts (36.95 and 35.70, respectively), finished in contango (it's been a while), with the rest of the term structure in backwardation.

Comments

Excellent Analysis on Upcoming Earnings! Great Iron Condor for AMD! Dividends Knowledge Exceptional! Broad Market and Futures Information Outstanding! This has to be the most informative analysis I have seen on Trading view. Fantastic Work, thank you!
Reply
NaughtyPines mthompson45
@mthompson45, It's kind of my premium selling cheat sheet. Naturally, stuff changes from when I do this over the weekend to NY open, but it gives me a basic idea of where premium is to be had ... and where it isn't.
Reply
mthompson45 NaughtyPines
@NaughtyPines, I do the same thing on Sunday's, as I'm sure a lot of Traders do, however I never saw anyone go into so much detail and Post. BTW - I also like your TWTR and FB trades. Are you a Full time Trader like myself?
Reply
NaughtyPines mthompson45
@mthompson45, I try to spend a few hours over the weekend, a good solid day during the week, and then try to leave things alone and not fiddle too much. Most of my setups are options-based in the monthlies, so I don't feel the need to do more than that.
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