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Long

AMD Bullish Pennant

NASDAQ:AMD   Advanced Micro Devices Inc
AMD bounced off its 200day at lows in March & has formed a symmetrical triangle from last spring along with a nice handle on the c&h pattern after the inverse h&s bottom. Very bullish stuff.

AMD is a SMH leader & should follow it's cousin (literally) NVDA in breaking out here. AMD break out here will see the stock go into the 60s - go long now while the stock is below $55 for solid profits.

Plays:

Buy-write - Buy 100 Shares : Sell 1 Oct $65c. Net gains = 20% on the stock run + $2.75/share premium or ~5% premium for max gains of 25%.

Synth Long - Buy Jan $55c ($8.30), sell Jan $55p ($9.60). Capture nearly 18% premium on the puts, pay 15% premium on the calls - net credit trade, infinite upside gains on calls.


To increase upside exposure, move call leg expiry up while keeping trade net credit: can buy July ~70delta ($48 or $50) or Oct ~70delta ($45 or $48) to act as stock; or buy $July ~30delta ($60) calls to speculate on powerful upside move..

In my opinion, by keeping the trades as credit-synth longs the upside is maximized while downside is more minimal than a credit spread unless stock falls apart below $48.50 (add put collar for downside protection if need be). Can also move around expirations depending on risk. Sell July puts, buy Jan calls for debit-synth long for example. Really depends on risk profile & strategy.
Comment: Editing this for what it's worth. This is playing out exactly as one would hope if they were looking for breakout. Range compression, low volume, strong floor. AMD has been coiling a tight symmetrical triangle since May28.
Comment: Well, not to take a victory lap but this played out exactly as I thought. Day after the above comment on tight symmetrical triangle AMD broke out and retested highs. My outlook is for AMD to push through $58.50 and make a move to above $70 within the next couple weeks.
Comment: Going to start adding my entries and exits to all positions otherwise this is a bit pointless due to volatility. I will be posting only trades I am in and following in terms of setup with a timescale of days to months. Was able to sell my longs during Fed presser and just reentered today, will be looking to add.
Comment: Added to this today

Comments

Great chart
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