We may be in the beginning stage of a Depression by this time next year and full blown depression within 2 years from today. I know all of this may sound "tin-foil hat" but I honestly don't care what people may label me. I'm simply pointing out what appears obvious to me on the indicators.
Will the FED stop raising rates now and postpone this drop a bit longer? Who knows... I honestly believe the FED will continue raising rates.
Here's the Monthly TF once again in case Trading View's platform scrunches up the cover chart for this publication:
Stocks price are regulated by offer/demand laws. Simple as that. Unfortunately people/firms/funds bought and are buying stocks using borrowed money. The market is using a very high leverage. 20% correction will call margin and close a lot of positions.
People believe that stocks will react after the real economy. It is the inverse. Stocks signal recession/depression earlier than economic data.
And yes, people don't like to think in social mood before recession/depression. Social mood in politics go to extremism near these periods. People go irrational, and extremist positions go to verbal and physical agressions.
proficy
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Amazon is the future of retail, they need a 20 to 50 correction in price in order to stay in a healthy price range.
I don't like to think in extremes like "depression".
I understand perfectly why people don't like to think of a depression. However, there's a world wide government debt bubble; of which NONE of them will ever be able to repay; including the U.S.
There is a world wide housing bubble.
Housing starts in the U.S. have dropped for a 6th month straight.
A world wide consumer credit bubble.
The Euro is in deep trouble for many reasons.
Emerging markets are failing.
Italian banks are about to fail.
Deutsche Bank in Germany will fail soon.
It's the next Leman Brothers. The U.S. dollar is about to fail.
Student loan debt bubble in the U.S. is the 2nd largest consumer debt next to housing and it's in a serious bubble.
Car loans in the U.S. are defaulting in record numbers.
Persons 65 and older filing for bankruptcy has increased over 200% year over year.
The list goes on and on and on...
There are too many things adding up to what occurred in the 1929 crash but on a much larger scale. This will be so bad that the entire world will have to have an economic reset (start over - default on debts).
I know, doesn't sound possible but it's the truth in my opinion. Even my indicators are pointing that direction.
Amazon will have a 50% correction at a minimum from its All Time High (ATH). Not necessarily because of it being worth 50% less but because the powers that be who move the markets will make it so in order to implement this wealth transfer to line their own pockets. Many retirements are locked into 401k's and they are about to take advantage once again. MANY people will be financially wrecked in regards to their retirement; pensions, IRA's, etc...
Odds are that Amazon may bottom around $750 but I will not be surprised if it falls all the way down to around $520.
We are currently in RECORD territory in regards to trading positions ON MARGIN. Many will be ruined financially because of their margin positions. Again, this is orchestrated by a Composite Group who moves the markets. When they decide it's time to bring it down, they'll bring it down but on their terms.
Amazon will likely stair step down to around the $1,400 to $1,500 range and bounce up briefly. Especially, if republicans maintain control of the House and Senate. Then it will continue down again a couple of months after the election in a slow bleed until October, 2019; where it will dump hard into the abyss in an effort to make the citizens of the U.S. "BEG" for a socialist/communist leader to deliver them from their anguish. At least that's the idea the composite group has in mind in my opinion.
WyckoffMode
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@ProwdClown,
October, 2019 is the beginning of campaigns for the 2020 presidential election. However, PARTY primary campaigns will begin around May/June, 2019.
What I've mentioned is on "financials and economics." I haven't mentioned what all is going on politically and geopolitically. However, I'm going to avoid delving into political/geopolitical discussion for the sake of avoiding arguments. Too many people are easily offended these days when discussing politics.
Padlomfaan
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@proficy, Where are peopel going to get the income to buy stuff from amazon. I can agree that amazon is the future of retail, but this doesnt mean its not going to see iits earnings profits hit in the event of a financial downturn. If people lose their jobs or inflations gets out control, people will buy less stuff. Their revenues will shrink...
That said, the whole game of growing or shirnking revenues is largely determiined by how much freefloating cash the fed prints. If the only way to get the bathtub to rise is to put more water in it.... Whats that goiing to do to the value of the water if its scarcity decreases...
A the other way around. If they're removing water from the tub, you can expect the flow of water to AMZN to decrease as well, and down goes the price of the stock.
Heres why a depression is guaranteed, debt, crypto(declining usage of banking infrastructure much like horse and carriage and fax machine and photo ink, seeing their industry swiped out beneath them)
People believe that stocks will react after the real economy. It is the inverse. Stocks signal recession/depression earlier than economic data.
And yes, people don't like to think in social mood before recession/depression. Social mood in politics go to extremism near these periods. People go irrational, and extremist positions go to verbal and physical agressions.