At this point there are just two scenarios for 2023 market development: 1. The market crash will happen entirely in April-June. 2. The sell-off will take the entire 2023.
Looking at the logarithmic scale of some stocks I see that the crash may take a lot more than 2-3 months. I am 100% confident that April-May will deliver on its bearish promises, but the markets may just trace 1/3 of the sell-off. SPX may end around 3000, and then the sell-off will take a summer break.
In this scenario June-July will be quite peaceful and uneventful. But in August-October the real crash will occur.
@AndyM lets see if you're right this time. I remember you and were both predicting that 2020 was a big bull trap... my concern is that the market has too many strings attached to it for bearish predictions to be able to be time-boxed...but I appreciate the attempt. 100% certainty is hard to come by haha.
Let's see how well this ages :)
AndyM
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@logica, the crash in Treasuries is due in 2023, but whether the eye of the storm hits us in spring or in fall - another question. I think the market has missed the time window for a full-blown crash in spring. So, the sell-off will span over the entire year.
On the other hand, if bank meltdown continues (and it will), it can be a a lightning-fast affair. If you have seen a video of a hypersonic missile hitting a building - that type of lightning-fast.
logica
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@AndyM, You think that yields will go up if the stock market crashes? In 01 and 08, the whole yield curve went down rather quickly.
Haha, I guess I'll have to go rewatch some war movies to see the hypersonic missiles (aka bank meltdown) ;)
AndyM
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@logica, check my charts on Treasuries. There is a very clear and unambiguous last wave of the sell-off due in govt debt. 10Y at 10% is extremely realistic.
AndyM
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@logica, To be clear: I think that the yields will go up, and because of that the market will crash. The causality goes this way, not the other way around.
logica
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@AndyM, understood. That happened in 08 as well but when the market was crashing yields went down. Real estate is already at 08 levels in many parts of the country. Higher interest rates will add fuel to the fire. But when the missile hits the building long term rates should crash with it as happened in 01 08 and 20
Let's see how well this ages :)