I'm short AMZN from here, I had briefly ridden a daily down trend signal before, but now we have a massive monthly topping pattern kicking in. I think it is a good market hedge, and might be a great long term pair trade to short it against energy longs as the ultimate reopening/end of the stay at home bubble trade. Bezos leaving was the kiss of death, antitrust risk is massive for the company, I can see this become a lengthy and very painful decline for shareholders. Better abandon ship ASAP . This might be the canary in the gold mine for FANG as well, the rally since 2009 lows is likely over and we can expect a 2000-2012 style move again. Lots of pain for hodlers, don't be left holding Bezos' bag here.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
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First target reached, I believe this has legs but will take Herculean discipline to hold.
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I took profits in my bear put spread up 3.37% in a few days, my short stock position is up 1.7R, I'll hodl that one, will try to reenter puts after a consolidation or retracement here.
Trade active
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Going short again...
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I had sent updates via Twitter but not here, had covered the short in profit for 1.7% gain and reshorted higher for more gains...Proceeds were 5.4% total so far.
One or two 4-5's to the downside left should setup a larger 4th wave, or despite the high put/call ratio and volume spike that usually attends a low, they pale in comparison to the string of high put/call ratio days, and volume spikes between Feb-March 2020 in the SPY, and other indices. AMZN's volume doesn't make a case for capitulation yet. The surprise here is that the market keeps going down and doesn't look back, could be a major cyclical bear market on the scale of the Great Depression.
pechi123
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A very expensive short, already in wave 5 of iii down, finding natural support 2871-2881 area, may be due for a large countertrend rally. If that rally is in 5 waves then a major bottom has formed, otherwise if 3 waves then the bear market will resume.