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Derivati_Capital
Jan 25, 2019 3:31 AM

AMZN Bearish Triangle Wave + Fisher Divergence Short

Amazon.com, Inc.NASDAQ

Description

Short opportunity in the works, indicated by bearish elliot triangle wave coupled with a bearish divergence in the 9-day fisher transform. May remain relatively flat on low volume until earnings reported on January 31st, or perhaps drop before then with the broader market on "trade tensions" and "fear of global economic slowdown".

Long-term view: Amazon has a lot of debt going forward in a market (online retail) that is largely saturated. Competition with Walmart, Target and other retailers putting their foot in the E-commerce space will force Amazon to fight a tough pricing battle in many of their key segments (i.e. consumer electronics, clothing). Competition will push retail prices closer to the cost of production, which will hurt Amazon's gross profits and ultimately, keep their net margin minimized. Without increasing net profit, Amazon will find it increasingly difficult to secure low interest debt. This, coupled with stiff competition and market saturation, will threaten to greatly reduce or stagnate Amazon's growth as a retailer going forward.
Comments
vergun
Looks like you were correct, and a similar pattern is playing out again now. When AMNZ hit $1708 I loved seeing the CNBC news pump cycle forecasting $2,200.
vergun
@vergun, that being said, after this brief stint down I am bullish on the market and believe sector leaders are going to be the best place to put capital to work (and likely not tech, but AMZN in that it's consumer discretionary in this regard).
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