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NAK1987
Apr 28, 2023 7:59 PM

ANET , LONG  Long

Arista Networks, Inc.NYSE

Description

Bought the bull flag on ANET / wedge pop

Earnings is monday AMC but so I am literally giving it a monday to hopefully move enough to hold a bit . 1.5 R gives me 1/4 carryover, 1R gives me a 1/6 , anything under that is just going to be sold . I have done the math on this and it allows for a 4 R gap down unscathed ... if earnings reaction bad ...

In my opinion 1.5 R , sell 3/4 , hold 1/4 is the best , holding 1/4 your balance still needs to go 4X 1R to equal 1R , so I sort of feel like its feels like a good bare minimum threshold level to carry over a responsible amount whereas 1R could work but then your balance needs to move 6R to equal 1R . For me , personally , I think that I will gravitate to 1.5R sell 3/4 , hold 1/4 , as a more typical procedure but still figuring it out ....

Time for a hike for me now , have a good weekend ~

QQQ note :

Maybe next week we might actually break up too , back in the trading range breakout mode on QQQ again for now . So far with this multi week range , Al brook 80 % rule has really been spot on , that being that 80 % of the time trading range breakouts fail to have follow-through looks like we might close at the top again today , which would mark the third attempt at a breakout , none of the breakouts up or down have worked so far ... will this one be the 20% or the 80% , guess its better to expect the 80% but man would it be nice to get the 20 %





Comment

pardon me I had another look at QQQ and I would say this is 5th attempt to breakout of range

Trade closed manually

Comment

ANET needed to go at least 1R to hold some per my plan so just got out in final minute today ... I never hold positions with that are not de risked through earning's
now . But I figured it was worth a try ...
Comments
Pastig
and just now what do you think? Earnings of Anet were positive
NAK1987
@Pastig, I really liked the earnings history , but one thing I have learned with earnings and sales is that although I want to see growing earnings and sales trend on the stocks I trade , I think that the reaction is more important and usually when there's ok earnings or positive but the stock drops the reason is related to future outlook statements .

In the past I have been on the " But earning's were good , it just being manipulated !!" team, ect ect , but now I keep things simple and focus more on the reaction to the earnings. And if the reaction was is bad, which in this case it is, I take that over the actual earnings report ... Don't trade the earnings report , trade the reaction ...Also this is a perfect example why unless you have a de-risked position , holding through earnings is the equivalent of a casino play . I was hoping to get at least 1R which would allow me to hold 1/6th of my shares or even better 1.5R which would allow me to hold 1/4 but we did not see that move so I sold . This is off my buy list for now .. I think it will probably need some time to recover after this ...
Pastig
@NAK1987, thank you. I hope now it will go up again from here
NAK1987
@Pastig, You bet , yea thats a non zero possibility lol :)
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