Given the recent market movements my primary count for APT has changed considerably. I will become far more bullish if we get a solid pivot at one of the areas mentioned below. The first entry to the last stop is ~ 25% drawdown so size positions carefully. A position of 5% of total account would be ~1.25% loss.
Long Entry: 1st Entry for Wave 3 of Wave 3: $24 (0.5 fib of wave 1 in primary wave 3) Stops at $23 2nd Entry for wave 3 of wave 3: $20.80 (0.618 fib of wave 1 in primary wave 3) Stops at $19.50 3rd Entry for wave 3 of wave 3: $18.50 (0.707 fib of wave 1 in primary wave 3) Stops at $17.80
Target for 3rd wave of primary wave 3: ~ $66 (1.618 measured move of wave 1 in primary wave 3)
Never Trust. Verify. DYOR. Not Financial Advice Just an Observation. Always remember: technical analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds. Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
@TribeWriter666 - what are your thoughts about the recent surge and the sale of 5% stake to tencent?
TribeWriter666
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@ish21, I do my analysis purley from price action, but it is always good to have some awareness of what's taking place on a fundamental level. Initially I thought APT might get into trouble during this pandemic with so many people losing their income, I felt like this might lead to mass default's and I felt like APT would be over exposed to this leading to big losses. However this is not what has happened, the narrative from governments seems to be; "we will print unlimited money to avoid a depression" so no one really knows what will happen now, this really is unprecedented. Will it lead to hyperinflation? Will they be able to stabilize the markets? Will this turn into a depression? or something else? When you look at what happened to APT during this time their revenues increased during the lockdowns, and they have kept expanding into new markets, and now with the sale to tencent, it certainly look's bullish. All I can be sure of is this is a time to tread carefully... Something doesn't feel right... Highest levels of unemployment since the great depression... Yet the market goes up... Complacency? For me, there is no trade here. I will wait and look for specific entries that meet my trade requirements.
The chart above assumes it has completed a second wave to correct the first 5 waves. However I don't like how it fits and it could be something more like this:
If it does start to drop and this chart plays out I expect there may be small reactions at levels shown in the first chart.
yvesang
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@TribeWriter666, Goes back to below $20 or even close to $0? Is this purely technical or?
yvesang
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@TribeWriter666 It seems like the news of Tencent's investment changed the game a little.
TribeWriter666
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@yvesang, I see, I haven't been paying attention to the news. They have been making good progress so far in this lockdown too and I keep seeing more and more places utilizing their services so it does make sense that they would have a rally. I'm usually just trading the chart, not so much the news, see the set up, take the trade, rinse repeat. At this stage I don't have a count or projection for APT. So no traze zone for me.
yvesang
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@TribeWriter666, any chance you would re-evaluate ASX:APT? It keeps pushing up and I am very curious of your thoughts!