Let's reconcile tokenomics with investment rounds.
1. Seed - correlate to Core Contributors allocation, 19.00%.
Put in 200M at $1 billion valuation. Received 20%. 👉 Price per token is about $1.
There is such an allocation in Core Contributors 19.00% tokenomics. As much as I have parsed the tokenomics of projects, I will say that there are investors behind such allocation. 20% and 19% are almost parity. That's okay.
2. Series A - correlated with Investors allocation, 13.48%.
Invested 150M at a $2.05 billion valuation. Got 7.3% (out of 13.48%, Binance's 6.2% (point 3 down the line). 👉 Price per token around $2.
3. Venture Round - correlated with Investors allocation, 13.48%.
Let's assume that "more than $4 billion dollars", in our terms, let it be $3.5 billion dollars. Then the breakdown is this. Aptos valuation $3.5 billion, Binance share 6.2% (see point 2). It turns out as follows: We deposited about $217 million (6.2% of $3.5 billion) , and received 62 million tokens. 👉 Price per token is about $3.5.
👉 The prices are sorted out. The spread is from $1 to $3.5 per token.
Token distribution and staking
For investors in the first year on the market are available only tokens received from steaking. Approximate yield of steaking for the first year =7%. Why approximate? From Aptos Tokenomics: "...Currently, the maximum reward rate starts at 7% per year and is estimated at each epoch. The maximum reward rate decreases at 1.5% per year..." To simplify, consider a 7% return for the first year.
How many tokens will investors get for staking in a year? Seed 13.3 million tokens in a year, 1.1 million in a month. The purchase price of a token is $1
Series A 5.1 million tokens for the year, 426k for the month. Purchase price of $2 token
Venture Round 4.3 million tokens for the year, per month 361k. The purchase price of $3.5 tokens.
The initial supply was 130 million tokens on the listing. 👉 Investors are clearly not going to push the staking, but instead are interested in maximizing their earnings on tokens that are poured for staking.
As I wrote earlier in the chat, the capitalization can be anything. Why? 1. The project is on a hype. 2. Move language is being popularized increasingly - this translates into saturation of the Aptos blockchain with new projects. 3. Hamsters don't have that many tokens to press the glass. 4. Token sale has not been conducted.
Perfect conditions for manipulation.
At the same time, there is talk online that the MOVE language is better than Rust (Solana). Nothing is stopping Aptos from running capitalization toward blockchain capitalization.
Technically After Listing was rolled at -70% and after this disappointment, there was a month-long 500% bump (from 3$ to 20$) After that there was a debilitating drop to 5$ and then a small 120% rise - looks like a pre-pump before the renewal of the highs. Now the price 9.2 is going to the 11-7.9 range (redistribution or accumulation) with targets at 30-60-100$.