AREB - Low Conviction Play; High Upside

BATS:AREB   American Rebel Holdings, Inc.
On the chart, this is another ascending triangle that appears to be forming. The volume is an obvious tell sign of where this is likely to go. On September 7th, there was a +38% daily green candle with volume over 115 million. In the days prior to that, there were some days with volume below 40k. The highest ever day in trading history prior to this was 6 million, which was also a green candle.  Then on Jan 24th, there was 8 million daily volume, then again on Feb 26th through 29th, there was 4th consecutive days on buying with 18 million in volume. The cookie crumbs are everywhere. Nothing is certain, but with this type of volume and all the moving averages converging within this ascending triangle, I think there is a high likelihood of this breaking out in the very near future. It's going to make a move one way or another. So which will it be.

To decide, I went to dig into what type of company this is. American Rebel is a Kansas based Gun and Fire Safe, concealed carry accessories, etc type of company. They currently have 14.6 million in total assets  (1.1 mill in cash)., and 7.7 million in total liabilities. That gives them a NAV ov 6.9 million, yet they only have a market cap of 4 million.  

While they appear to be undervalued on that side of the business, the recent big news is that they have reached an agreement with Standard Beverage Corp in Kansas and Best Brands in Tennessee to launch their new beer brand. “We already have commitments from some of the top sports bars, retail outlets, venues and music festivals in the state. Launching America’s Patriotic, God-Fearing, Constitution-Loving, National Anthem Singing, Stand Your Ground Beer into the marketplace is a primary goal of our current Reg A+ offering and having American Rebel Light Beer available in the state of Kansas helps deliver on that goal. Standard Beverage will begin distributing American Rebel Light Beer as soon as product can be integrated into the Standard Beverage network. This agreement will make American Rebel Beer available to locations and customers within Standard Beverage’s territory statewide in Kansas. In Tennessee, “We already have commitments from some legendary bars in the historic entertainment district in Nashville, as well as retail outlets, venues and music festivals throughout the state."

Here is the company's jingle for the beer.  On this interview, their CEO said they are being conservative and launching regionally in January with a lager and a lager light for 2024. Then in 2025, they are going hard and launching nationwide. They might be able to get some sales here this summer with all these festivals and the 4th of July around the corner.

We are at a time where some people are fed up with large corporations, their wokeness, and their bending over backwards for the government. Top gun and fire safe company Liberty Safe came under scrutiny for rolling over and  handing over the safe password  to the FBI for an alleged January 6 participant without batting an eye. American Rebel's CEO said that if the FBI would've served them a warrant, he would've “taken it to court to the fullest extent of the law that we could. It's not only individual privacy we're trying to protect here. It's privacy as a whole.”. Bud Light and many other companies have been infiltrated by the woke virus and have tried to push their narratives on society. This company is a response to that. 

It's probably pretty difficult to take share in the alcohol industry. It's also pretty obvious the type of customer American Rebel is targeting with their jingle, “we like our girls in bikinis, like our coolers in the truck, Motorsports on TV,  hard working for a buck, so raise them high high high, testify fy fy, American rebel is the only beer we're drinking around here." I'm not ruling out the possibility this beer launch might be a minor success with this customer base and with the possibility it could grow over time. Of course I have yet to taste it and I'm operating under the assumption it will taste decent. And if not, the underlying gun safe and accessories business appears to be currently undervalued. But the chart and the volume is the most exciting thing here.


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