-Primary W4 target zone (38.2 - 50) -Nearing channel bottom -Reached 1st fib target for Y leg of W4 (-23.6) -Confluent support of 38.2 fib and channel bottom -Weekly RSI at march 2020 covid lows -Downside risk defined at 72.50
From the looks of it, we might be nearing a bottom on growth stocks. Keep in mind this is a weekly chart so if we do continue down, it could drag out for another few weeks. However, downside risk is defined at the 50% fib, at 72.50.
I would start building a position from here and continue building as long as ARKK is above 72.5. ARK's time horizons are 5 years, and market jitters will last 5 months, maybe a year if we're really fucked.
Ask yourself, did Cathie Wood and her team suddenly become stupid over night, or does the market work in cycles?
Need to see it hold around these levels and reverse course before i'll take any credit for nailing it, but the RR could be really good for growth names at these prices.
fenixchart
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@ir-rizzle, any updates on your TA / thoughts after today?
ir-rizzle
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@fenixchart, nothing in particular....having lost both the channel and the yellow trendline is not great but the wave count is the main thing to watch. The Pre-covid high of ~61 (feb 18, 2020) is where wave 4 is invalidated and the count becomes a nested 1-2 instead.
The trade setup has hit the strop loss, but im still bullish on ARKK over the long term as an investment. DCA is the best strategy.
fenixchart
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@ir-rizzle, ya sadly I'm stuck bag holding with a higher average on the ark funds, did not expect it to get this bad.
ir-rizzle
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@fenixchart, if it was a trade, you gotta respect the SL (ive been burned many times not following my own advice).....but all of cathies stocks have the same or better fundamentals as a year ago when they were 4x the price. So if you thought they were a good investment then, they're a GREAT investment now.
Remember, real money is made in a bear market....ask yourself, what do you wish you would have bought during the covid crash or the 2008 financial crisis? A ton of names took major hits but the good ones then followed it up with a decade of ATHs, year after year.
fenixchart
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@ir-rizzle, Ya I was planning to hold for years, the main concern is how much further this drop becomes, as it can become better to just cut the loss and wait.
ir-rizzle
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@fenixchart, if you had planned to hold for years then dont worry about daily or weekly movements....in 6 months time the markets will look completely different.....and we'll still be 3.5 years away from ARK's time horizon. PAYtience my friend :)
fenixchart
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Curious as to what your thoughts are on ARKK / ARKW & ARKG after today? Still bullish?
ir-rizzle
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@fenixchart, nothing has changed for ARKK and ARKG....ARKK still above the 50% fib and at the bottom of the channel, and ARKG just below the 50% fib and at the bottom of the channel...both showing RSI divergence with lower price but higher RSI on the daily.