ASML — Guide Raise, Muted Reaction, Classic Setup

ASML — Guide Raise, Muted Reaction, Classic Setup
Q1 2026 print (Apr 15): €8.8B revenue, 53% GM (high end), €2.8B net income, EPS €7.15. 79 systems shipped including 16 EUV and 2 High-NA. FY26 guidance raised to €36-40B.
Reaction: Stock closed $1,473.95 on Apr 17, -0.53%. No rally on raised guide = positioning already extended heading into print. ATH close was $1,526.51 on Feb 25.
Structure on the chart:
• Recovered the April flush to $1,310
• Reclaiming 0.786 fib (1,476) → 0.886 (1,502) in play
• RSI 55.94, room to extend
• BOS intact off April low
Levels:
Resistance: 1,502 / 1,531 weak high / 1,547 / 1,593
Support: 1,438 / 1,402 / 1,384 MA / 1,356 / 1,310
Plan: Long bias above 1,438. Add on 1,502 reclaim, first targets 1,531/1,547. Invalidation below 1,384.
Fundamentals driving the setup:
• 100% EUV monopoly, ZEISS optics lock
• Low-NA output: 60 (2026) → 80+ (2027)
• US export bill scaled back — China headwind easing
• Sell-side PTs: Berenberg €1,570, Deutsche Bank €1,600
• Samsung slot-booked through 2027
12mo targets: Base $1,600-1,700 | Bull $1,850-2,050
Structural (2028+): $2,400-2,800 on Angstrom build-out
Process over prediction. Risk-first, always. NFA. Educational only.