HandsomeSloth

ASTR Upside Story

Long
NASDAQ:ASTR   Astra Space, Inc
Why is the stock down?
1) Locked up shares were allowed to be traded, flooding the market with shares
2) Kerrisdale Capital coincided point 1 by coming out with a short report
That's great! We can now buy shares at less than it IPO'd / SPAC'd for ($10/share).

Why is this the bottom?
- Since formally trading has dropped 50-60%, 3 times. We are currently at the 3rd time.
- RSI is below 30 for the first time ever

Why Kerrisdale Capital is wrong:
- If you read the report, 90% of it reflects that $/ kg to space is higher than others. No shit it is. Astra is launching the smallest commercial rocket ever (200kg to orbit)
- What this means is that their $ price tag per launch is cheapest for the whole rocket than any other competitor (despite $/ kg not being cheapest)
- Sure, SmallSats can rideshare, but for just $2.5m with Astra they can go wherever they want, and the total $ value will be less than all competitors for that

Downside Risk: ~$4/share: This value is:
1) $1 billion market cap
2) convergence of LT and ST descending wedges
This is another ~40% down from where we are at today ($5.60/share)