$AUDCAD: Target Hit; Abysmal Target Next | $AUD $CAD #forex

FX:AUDCAD   Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
Hello Friends,

As you may recall, last analysis demonstrated that we hit TG-1 = 1.01173 dead-on, and there remained the possibility of a TG-Lo = 1.00892, although the question was whether Wave-4 of a large 5-wave pattern had completed and would instead move on to a higher and final impulse Wave-5 at TG-Hi = 1.02346 - All of these targets add been defined by the predictive/forecasting model on 30 JUL 2014.

At this point, Point-5 distinguished itself by its price validation, albeit at a fraction of a pip missing (data on TradingView indicates 1.02336, whereas a separate FXCM-USA data indicates 1.02339, both a few fractions short of the TG-Lo value at 1.02346).

Assuming that the experience trader had fronted his Take-Profit position (moving T/P ahead of the TG by the value of the spread), then we hope that this predictive targeting got you in the green. If not, perhaps next time, we'll try to be less precise and allow for that little "je ne sait quoi".


Elliott Wave's 1-2-3-4-5 structure has completed. Trader should now turn to a 3-wave correction (A-B-C) which should help define the first impulsive manifestation of Wave-1 within a new 1-2-3-4-5 wave structure.

For the time being, I would wait and keep the directional bias under "Neutral".


The predictive/Forecasting model is putting out an abysmal 0.99796 target down below. This target has no predictive value at this time, therefore, it remains to be defined as a quantitative target (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... ) or a qualitative target (i.e.: TG-Hi or TG-Lo).


As you may recall, quantitative targets define levels of significant R/S rated at a decreasing probability of getting hit, where price might hold, consolidate or retrace at a significant Fibonacci level, whereas qualitative targets define levels of significant reversibility, where price has a much lesser probability of attaining, but if and once it does so, price will have a high probability of reversing. The analogy here is that of a recoil, which makes it more and more difficult to compress (lesser probability of complete compression), but once it reached that level, it will spring out forcefully with great probability).

Price hit last Point-5 of the 5-Wave Elliott structure; expect a reversal to the downside ever since that event completed.

An abysmal target is defined through the predictive/forecasting model at:

TG = 0.99796 - This is a neutral target (i.e.: neither quantitative nor qualitative - see definition above), and a model-based direction remains to be confirmed at this point.

I hope you have enjoyed the prior analyses and that you will continue to follow them on Twitter under @4xForecaster. I have also started to share important information on large banks position in the Forex market. Since institutional force is the wind that move the Forex, it is quite essential to know who goes where. Experienced retail traders can then affirm their own positions against the revealed trades made by the large banks.

Thank you for your kind referral among friends and colleagues. There is nothing to buy, nothing for sale, and no gimmick - Just pure unadulterated advanced technical analysis pornographic pleasure.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis/Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA
Dear David, my view on AUDCAD.

Following is the chart is it stands right now: All older targets have been removed or ghosted to a lighter grey to indicate that they have now expired. Only the DARKER GREY target down below is valid for the future development of this chart:

Thank you @kmk.msp for pointing the former TG-Lo out, which has been removed for clarification sake.

David Alcindor
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
You welcome David, really happy to see your accurate models and you share models for free.
+1 Reply
@kmk.msp - Be sure to join the room where I share M/T and L/T information on what banks are doing. However, the premise is that the traders entering the room have to be experienced, have a plan and know to stick to their plan, i.e.: "Plan the trade, then trade the plan" sort of mindset.

The information therein shows medium-term and long-term trades by major banks (JP Morgan, Barclays, ANZ, ...), which is the only thing moving Forex price.

Feel free to share that information as well. It's free and would allow traders to compare their trades to that of the big dogs out there.


David Alcindor
HamedAghajani 4xForecaster
Hi David,
Would you please give more information on the room where you share M/T and L/T information on what banks are doing. Thanks, Hamed
+1 Reply
4xForecaster HamedAghajani
Hello, @HamedAghajani,

The room provides major banks' FX positions for M/T and L/T trades. The link is here:


Available banks are: ANZ, Barclays, BNP/Paribas, BoA/Merrill, Citi, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, SEB, SocGen

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
07 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
$AUDCAD - New abysmal target: "TG = 0.99796 - 07 AUG 2014"

via @tradingview | $AUD $CAD #forex #RBA #BOC

Just posting the live chart with the new undefined target:

TG = 0.99796 - 07 AUG 2014


David Alcindor
Twitter: @4xForecaster

PS: Be sure to stop by the room where I release major bank positions in the Forex market (Barclays, JP Morgan, Citi, ... ), all medium-term and long-terms (none of the frequent short-term0, so that you have time to compare them to your own trading plan and see how you compare to the big dogs - Link to the TradingView room is:


(everyday, I will mention whether or not you missed a trade or not, as i will continually post what has or has not happened that day, in terms of what the big dogs are doing)
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
so it will bounce strongly once it touch TG-low = 1.00892?
+1 Reply
@kmk.msp - Thank you for mentioning this level - This level is not valid anymore, as it pertained to the prior low relative to TG-1. I will definitely need to ERASE it. Thank you!

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