As forecast on TradingView.com and signaled on my Twitter feed (alias: @4xForecaster), following is the link to the predictive analysis and forecasting:
In that analysis, I reviewed basic Elliott Waves and Wolfe Waves patterns, and how their synergistic interplay build a basis to rationalize a bearish entry. The targets released at the time were:
1 - TG-1 = 1.01173;
and
2 - TG-Lo = 1.00892
The data suggested a SL at structure HIGH = 1.01919
The Reward-to-Risk Ratio ("RRR") was defined and remains as 12:1 - So far, 68.8 pips was the max incursion recorded as price hit TG-1. At this point, a relief rally is expected to occur, but further decline remains the favored directional bias.
OVERALL:
As indicated in the chart and prior analysis, the sequence sought is TG-1, followed by TG-Lo, and finally a reversal to TG-Hi. A continuation of a decline past TG-Lo should annul any rallying aspiration towards TG-Hi.
More on this trade development as it occurs. Feel free to follow my on TradingView.com (under 4xForecaster) as well as on Twitter (under @4xForecaster).
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
------------------------------- Twitter signals: @4xForecasting Archives of signals: bit.ly/16JMnH8 -------------------------------
The accuracy of your forecast was wonderful. Congratulations.
Best Regards,
Serge
4xForecaster
⋅
Merci @SergeBonaparte! - David
NQunlocked
⋅
GREAT IDEA David, thank you for sharing!!. This is my long term forcast. Cheers Hamza
4xForecaster
⋅
01 AUG 2014 - 12:54CST
@HamzaLeith - I have not submitted chart to any L/T predictive/forecasting analysis, but it looks like the development of the EW make very much sense, although they remain to be proven true - As my wife says: "Life happens when you make plans", and in the same manner,, the market has a way to upset these plans and projections. Still, I like these waves and I will hope that they remain true to their actual development.
The corrective a-b-c seems to have defined the impulse iii-squared and the corrective iv-square waves in their respective 5 and 3 waves morphologies. Also, corrective wave iv-squared has remains clear above recent structure carved by the first wave-i (not shown in your chart) impulse, thus safeguarding its valid position.
Looking at a finer resolution, your defined 1-2-3-red squared points are also what I would have defined. In fact, they are the points I had defined as well in my chart, although I remain hesitant to confirm wave 4-red squared yet, UNTIL price rallies, breaks above AND closes above wave 3-red squared - In my chart, I have left both of these points "ghosted" until such move affirms their positions - The price point is defined as 1.01911 in my chart:
Looking purely at the model, AUDCAD-H4 has re-confirmed a BULLISH market reversal signal, and in this respect, it would certainly confirm the morphology of your waves.
The NEXT level of resistance is defined as:
TG-1 = 1.02369,
while the next level of potential reversal is defined as:
TG-Hi = 1.02839.
I have NOT yet posted a new chart with these BULLISH targets, but I am confident that IF price continues to rally in the direction defined by your waves, they are likely to be reached and validated.
More on these targets over the next few hours or days - Again, life is happening right now while I was planning to chart these targets.
Talk to you as we go.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
NQunlocked
⋅
Thank you so much for your feedback David, I appreciate your effort. I just realized that the correction after the ongoing impulse could be much shallower than I anticipate, also I agree 100% that we need a bit more confirmation regarding the bottom of wave nr 4. However that target area is still what I am aiming for. Wishing you the best.
P.S. Your wife must be a very wise person, my regards.
4xForecaster
⋅
@HamzaLeith - A near validation of the 1.01911 level remains a high-probability event in the next 24-72 hours (i.e. a consolidation or a failed KoD could still occur at this point). However, IF and once that level is violated (i.e.: BACA: price Breaking-Above, Closing-Above), then both waves 3 & 4 would likely gain confirmation. This would open the chart up to higher potential levels, which I would expect to materialize through a diagonal triangle or a truncated Wave-5 - The internal wave count should help define that development, but again , 1.01911 needs to give up its lofty barrier.
Thank you for your comment about my wife, She is a wise pillar in my daily living.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
360
⋅
Awesome play, too bad slippage ate my SL
4xForecaster
⋅
@360 - I recommend that you keep BOTH bids and asks values running within your live data-fed chart, and that you keep a constant measure of that spread. This will GUARANTEE selling to buyers or buying from sellers at a surgically well-defined price point.
My method uses say a 0.n-pip difference + 0.2-pip "insurance". So, if the spread is 0.3 pips, then I set my limit order at that pip value plus insurance, or 0.5. I have never had a miss so far, UNLESS you sell into a major news release, which in this case, would increase the spread. Yet, here too, simple at that insurance to the spread, and you will always keep your edge of the trade in the liquid pool.
- David Alcindor
360
⋅
Thanks for the feedback. Will do that for sure. I think there was a news release shortly after i opened the trade. Regardless, i should have left some room for it. I like your style, will follow you closely here and twitter as well. Peace
4xForecaster
⋅
Hey, much appreciated 360 - David Alcindor, @4xForecaster on Twitter. Thanks!
The accuracy of your forecast was wonderful. Congratulations.
Best Regards,
Serge